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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-5673u
ROI
-10.4%
win rate
45%
bets
1380
drawdown
433.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-855u
period 6top-up-957u
period 5top-up-871u
period 4top-up-811u
period 3top-up-902u
period 2top-up-939u
period 1top-up-338u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)138045%-636-4.6%65.4%Select
1% of bankroll138045%-673-5.2%68.9%Select
Martingale9745%-899-20.7%92.2%Select
2% of bankroll138045%-1395-5.8%135.9%Select
5% of bankroll138045%-3492-7.5%301.4%Select
10% of bankroll138045%-5673-10.4%433.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1380, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FURIA – BETBOOMBETBOOM2.0416lost-16-4673
14.10.26Butterfly – Nuclear TigeRESButterfly2.2918lost-18-4657
14.10.26Just Players – FOKUSFOKUS2.0816won+17-4639
14.10.26G2 Ares – The Last ResortThe Last Resort2.0218lost-18-4657
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexPCIFIC1.9216won+15-4639
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9818lost-18-4654
14.10.26HOTU – AstralisAstralis2.3516won+22-4635
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5718lost-18-4657
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9320lost-20-4639
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9022lost-22-4619
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0125lost-25-4597
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2922won+28-4573
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1124lost-24-4601
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0422won+23-4577
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1124lost-24-4599
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4527lost-27-4575
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9630lost-30-4548
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9627won+26-4518
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.0930lost-30-4544
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1225won+53-4514
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.9123won+21-4567
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4520won+29-4588
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9722lost-22-4617
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5525lost-25-4595
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9523won+22-4570
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3725lost-25-4592
10.10.26NRG – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.4928lost-28-4566
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0931lost-31-4538
10.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.4535lost-35-4507
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5138lost-38-4473
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7043lost-43-4435
10.10.26Desi Boyz – EMPIREEMPIRE1.9439won+37-4392
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0135won+36-4429
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2731won+40-4464
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9835lost-35-4504
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2939lost-39-4469
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoMOUZ NXT2.6133won+54-4431
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3437lost-37-4484
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.0733won+36-4447
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsBORING PLAYERS2.1337lost-37-4483
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2433won+41-4446
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7037lost-37-4487
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0541lost-41-4450
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8934won+65-4409
09.10.26New Legends – Wanted GoonsWanted Goons2.3530won+41-4474
09.10.26Grêmio – YawaraGrêmio2.0534lost-34-4515
09.10.26Isurus – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars1.9331won+29-4481
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9928won+28-4510
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerPrivateer3.7831lost-31-4538
08.10.26Saint Sinners – mellrenSaint Sinners2.5427won+42-4507
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0724won+26-4548
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5627lost-27-4574
08.10.26CYBERSHOKE – NexusNexus1.9625won+24-4547
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.9527lost-27-4571
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9125won+23-4544
08.10.26ENCE – LFO 10LFO 102.1928lost-28-4566
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.9631lost-31-4539
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5334lost-34-4507
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.2438lost-38-4473
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.1943lost-43-4435
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.