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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-5585u
ROI
-9.2%
win rate
44%
bets
1380
drawdown
430%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-757u
period 6top-up-995u
period 5top-up-906u
period 4top-up-747u
period 3top-up-902u
period 2top-up-939u
period 1top-up-338u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll138044%-809-6.3%83.5%Select
Flat (10 units)138044%-815-5.9%84.2%Select
Martingale9745%-899-20.7%92.2%Select
2% of bankroll138044%-1587-6.7%156.2%Select
5% of bankroll138044%-3583-7.8%313%Select
10% of bankroll138044%-5585-9.2%430%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1380, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FOKUS – YounglingsYounglings2.3527lost-27-4585
14.10.26fnatic – HOTUfnatic1.9425won+23-4558
14.10.26Just Players – FOKUSFOKUS2.0822won+24-4581
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexPCIFIC1.9220won+19-4605
14.10.26G2 Ares – The Last ResortThe Last Resort2.0223lost-23-4624
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9825lost-25-4601
14.10.26Lynn Vision – Alter EgoLynn Vision2.0323won+24-4576
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5725lost-25-4599
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9328lost-28-4574
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.0525won+27-4546
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0128lost-28-4573
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2925won+32-4544
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1128lost-28-4577
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0425won+26-4549
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9928lost-28-4575
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4531lost-31-4547
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9635lost-35-4516
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.1838lost-38-4481
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6143lost-43-4443
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1235won+75-4400
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6439lost-39-4475
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4534won+50-4435
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9738lost-38-4485
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5542lost-42-4447
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9539won+37-4405
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3743lost-43-4441
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1348lost-48-4399
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0953lost-53-4351
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1048won+52-4298
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5153lost-53-4350
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7059lost-59-4297
10.10.26Desi Boyz – EMPIREEMPIRE1.9454won+51-4238
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0149won+50-4289
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2743won+55-4339
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9848lost-48-4394
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2954lost-54-4345
09.10.26Iberian Soul – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9360lost-60-4292
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3466lost-66-4232
09.10.26WBT Academy – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.4758won+85-4166
09.10.26Vitalem Aerem – Rare AtomVitalem Aerem2.4850won+75-4251
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2445won+55-4325
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7050lost-50-4381
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0555lost-55-4331
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8946won+88-4276
09.10.26Zomblers – Desi BoyzZomblers1.8943won+38-4364
09.10.26MEIA NOITE – QUINTESSÊNCIAMEIA NOITE2.1838won+45-4402
09.10.26METANOIA Wolves – BORRACHEIROSMETANOIA Wolves2.6142lost-42-4447
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9938won+38-4404
08.10.26Saint Sinners – mellrenSaint Sinners2.5433won+51-4443
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerPrivateer3.7837lost-37-4494
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0733won+36-4457
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4337lost-37-4493
08.10.26EAC – PUREEAC2.1241lost-41-4456
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.9546lost-46-4414
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.2041won+49-4368
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9138won+34-4418
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.9642lost-42-4452
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5346lost-46-4410
08.10.26G2 Ares – RBLSG2 Ares2.0542won+44-4364
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.1947lost-47-4408
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.