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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1395u
ROI
-5.8%
win rate
45%
bets
1380
drawdown
135.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-231u
period 6top-up-242u
period 5top-up-168u
period 4top-up-146u
period 3top-up-290u
period 2top-up-282u
period 1top-up-37u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)138045%-636-4.6%65.4%Select
1% of bankroll138045%-673-5.2%68.9%Select
Martingale9745%-899-20.7%92.2%Select
2% of bankroll138045%-1395-5.8%135.9%Select
5% of bankroll138045%-3492-7.5%301.4%Select
10% of bankroll138045%-5673-10.4%433.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1380, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FURIA – BETBOOMBETBOOM2.0416lost-16-395
14.10.26Butterfly – Nuclear TigeRESButterfly2.2916lost-16-380
14.10.26Just Players – FOKUSFOKUS2.0816won+17-364
14.10.26G2 Ares – The Last ResortThe Last Resort2.0216lost-16-381
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexPCIFIC1.9216won+14-365
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9816lost-16-379
14.10.26HOTU – AstralisAstralis2.3516won+21-363
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5716lost-16-384
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9316lost-16-368
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9017lost-17-352
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0117lost-17-335
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2916won+21-318
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1117lost-17-340
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0416won+17-323
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1117lost-17-340
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4517lost-17-323
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9618lost-18-306
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9617won+17-288
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.0918lost-18-305
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1217won+36-287
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.9117won+15-323
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4516won+23-338
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9716lost-16-361
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5517lost-17-345
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9516won+16-328
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3717lost-17-344
10.10.26NRG – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.4917lost-17-327
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0917lost-17-310
10.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.4518lost-18-292
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5118lost-18-275
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7019lost-19-257
10.10.26Desi Boyz – EMPIREEMPIRE1.9418won+17-238
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0118won+18-255
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2717won+22-273
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9818lost-18-295
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2918lost-18-277
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoMOUZ NXT2.6118won+28-259
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3418lost-18-288
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.0718won+19-270
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsBORING PLAYERS2.1318lost-18-288
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2417won+22-271
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7018lost-18-292
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0518lost-18-274
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8918won+33-256
09.10.26New Legends – Wanted GoonsWanted Goons2.3517won+23-289
09.10.26Grêmio – YawaraGrêmio2.0517lost-17-312
09.10.26Isurus – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars1.9317won+16-295
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9917won+17-311
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerPrivateer3.7817lost-17-327
08.10.26Saint Sinners – mellrenSaint Sinners2.5417won+26-310
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0716won+17-336
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5617lost-17-353
08.10.26CYBERSHOKE – NexusNexus1.9616won+16-337
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.9517lost-17-352
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9116won+15-336
08.10.26ENCE – LFO 10LFO 102.1917lost-17-351
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.9617lost-17-334
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5317lost-17-317
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.2418lost-18-300
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.1918lost-18-282
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.