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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-796u
ROI
-7.2%
win rate
45%
bets
619
drawdown
92.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-140u
period 3top-up-335u
period 2top-up-190u
period 1top-up-131u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Flat (10 units)61945%-388-6.3%50.3%Select
1% of bankroll61945%-395-6.8%49.8%Select
2% of bankroll61945%-796-7.2%92.5%Select
Martingale11150%-1000-22.5%100%Select
5% of bankroll61945%-1928-8.4%183.6%Select
10% of bankroll61945%-3237-9.8%244.4%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 619, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Lavked – ENCELavked1.9618lost-18204
20.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – benched godsbenched gods2.0217won+18222
20.08.26ex-Sashi Academy – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9617won+16204
20.08.26G2 Ares – BebopBebop1.9817lost-17188
19.08.26FURIA – AuroraFURIA2.0217won+17205
19.08.26EAC – ColorColor2.0117won+17188
19.08.26FUT – magicFUT1.9816won+16171
19.08.26Lavked – ReviseLavked2.1716won+19155
19.08.26Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.1715won+18137
19.08.26Noir Verse – ENCENoir Verse2.2015won+18119
19.08.26Misa – The Last ResortMisa2.1915lost-15100
19.08.26MOUZ NXT – SPARTAMOUZ NXT2.0516lost-16116
19.08.26Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXTMOUZ NXT1.9316lost-16132
19.08.26GenOne – UNiTYUNiTY2.5416lost-16148
18.08.26Misa – Strael BoraMisa2.0916won+17164
18.08.26Metizport – SPARTAMetizport1.9016won+14147
18.08.26Bushido Wildcats – MisaMisa3.5016lost-16132
18.08.26EAC – FortressFortress2.6916lost-16148
18.08.26Metizport – DONSTUDONSTU2.1317lost-17165
18.08.26Omega – Fire FluxFire Flux2.2916won+21182
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTECex-Zero Tenacity2.4116won+22161
18.08.26Bebop – benched godsBebop1.9816lost-16138
18.08.26ENCE – Mai TaiMai Tai2.4617lost-17154
17.08.26Revise – FORZE ReloadFORZE Reload1.9717lost-17171
17.08.26mellren – Noir VerseNoir Verse2.1517lost-17188
17.08.26Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero TenacityInner Circle Academy1.9617won+16205
17.08.26benched gods – Phantom Academybenched gods2.0317won+17189
16.08.26EAC – BASEMENT BOYSEAC2.1716won+19172
16.08.26DragonClaw – ex-Zero TenacityDragonClaw2.1516lost-16153
16.08.26Keyd Stars – ImperialKeyd Stars2.2017lost-17169
16.08.26MOUZ – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.2117lost-17186
16.08.26ROUNDS – VexarROUNDS2.2018lost-18203
16.08.26ex-MANA – ex-RUSTECex-MANA2.3518lost-18221
15.08.26Spirit – BIGBIG2.0718lost-18239
15.08.26INOX Division – MisaMisa2.7119lost-19257
15.08.26magic – 3DMAX3DMAX2.4919lost-19276
15.08.26Fire Flux – OGOG2.0019won+19295
15.08.26Leo – MisaMisa2.2818won+23276
15.08.26ex-MANA – MisaMisa2.0318won+18253
15.08.26GUESS – ArchGUESS1.9417won+16234
15.08.26Fire Flux – NEW VISIONNEW VISION2.4617won+25218
15.08.26Pugdesonesto – QUINTESSÊNCIAPugdesonesto1.9517lost-17193
14.08.26Galorys – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS1.9318lost-18211
14.08.26Lavked – BASEMENT BOYSLavked2.4317won+25228
14.08.26K27 – MIBRMIBR2.0017won+17204
14.08.26ex-MANA – Lazer Catsex-MANA2.0017won+17187
14.08.26MOUZ NXT – Lazer CatsMOUZ NXT2.1016won+18170
14.08.26INOX Division – ex-MANAex-MANA2.6116lost-16153
14.08.26Misa – LeoMisa2.5516won+25169
14.08.26BASEMENT BOYS – Phantom AcademyPhantom Academy1.9616lost-16144
14.08.26Enjoy – MisaMisa2.5917lost-17161
13.08.26Yawara – Keyd StarsKeyd Stars1.9416won+15177
13.08.26GamerLegion – JiJieHaoGamerLegion2.3616won+22162
12.08.26Vitality – 100 ThievesVitality2.4815won+23140
12.08.26MIBR – AstralisAstralis2.1415won+17117
12.08.26los kogutos – BERGlos kogutos2.0815won+16100
12.08.26Falcons – K27K272.0315lost-1584
12.08.26Ground Zero – MindfreakMindfreak2.0815lost-1599
12.08.26Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANAex-MANA2.6316lost-16115
11.08.26Isurus – GrêmioGrêmio2.2316lost-16130
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.