Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-333u
ROI
-2.7%
win rate
47%
bets
1243
drawdown
70.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-32u
period 3profit withdrawn+139u
period 2top-up-396u
period 1top-up-45u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 290 | 49% | +283 | +3% | 47.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1243 | 47% | -315 | -2.7% | 65% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1243 | 47% | -333 | -2.7% | 70.9% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 1243 | 47% | -614 | -2.8% | 108.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1243 | 47% | -1576 | -3.8% | 175.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1243 | 47% | -3176 | -7% | 259.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1243, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 10 | won | +15 | 667 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 652 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | B8 | 2.37 | 10 | lost | -10 | 641 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Metizport | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 651 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 642 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Legacy | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 632 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 623 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 613 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Honvéd | 2.81 | 10 | won | +18 | 623 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 605 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Metizport | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 595 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | The Last Resort | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 585 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 595 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | Astralis | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 586 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 10 | won | +12 | 596 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 10 | lost | -10 | 584 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 594 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | Permitta | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 584 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | Misa | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 594 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 604 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 10 | won | +11 | 614 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | DONSTU | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 604 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | OG | 2.06 | 10 | won | +11 | 614 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | Color | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 603 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 594 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Entropy | 2.68 | 10 | won | +17 | 584 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 567 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 577 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Misa | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 587 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | OG | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 597 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 588 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 598 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | Fortress | 2.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 608 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 618 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | Just Players | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 628 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 619 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 629 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.05 | 10 | won | +10 | 639 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 628 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | BERG | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 638 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 648 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 638 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | Lavked | 2.70 | 10 | won | +17 | 648 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 631 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.97 | 10 | won | +10 | 621 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 611 |
| 16.08.26 | Astralis – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Astralis | 1.93 | 10 | won | +9 | 621 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 1.94 | 10 | lost | -10 | 612 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | Mai Tai | 2.50 | 10 | won | +15 | 622 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.21 | 10 | won | +12 | 607 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 595 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | ENCE | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 605 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | HAVU | 2.19 | 10 | won | +12 | 615 |
| 16.08.26 | The MongolZ – paiN | paiN | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 603 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Vitality | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 613 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | 603 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 613 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 10 | lost | -10 | 623 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | BIG | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 633 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | Noir Verse | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 643 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.