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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2269u
ROI
-8%
win rate
43%
bets
2821
drawdown
227.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-501u
period 6top-up-424u
period 5top-up-331u
period 4top-up-174u
period 3top-up-287u
period 2top-up-355u
period 1top-up-198u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale17140%-937-11.5%95.1%Select
1% of bankroll282143%-2022-8.8%202.3%Select
Flat (10 units)282143%-2269-8%227.4%Selected
2% of bankroll282143%-3568-9.5%353.4%Select
5% of bankroll282143%-6009-11.2%580%Select
10% of bankroll282143%-6885-13.1%640.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2821, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.1910lost-10-1269
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.6710won+17-1259
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.0510won+11-1275
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9010lost-10-1286
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.2110lost-10-1276
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.0910won+11-1266
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.7810lost-10-1277
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10-1267
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2910won+13-1257
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10-1270
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.9010lost-10-1260
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.1610lost-10-1250
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.3010lost-10-1240
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+10-1230
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10-1240
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1110lost-10-1230
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.1010lost-10-1220
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.9510lost-10-1210
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.2610lost-10-1200
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.0110lost-10-1190
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.6910lost-10-1180
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.0910lost-10-1170
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.6810lost-10-1160
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.1810won+12-1150
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4510lost-10-1162
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9910lost-10-1152
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.0410lost-10-1142
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.0210won+10-1132
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.5410lost-10-1142
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.0410lost-10-1132
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9610lost-10-1122
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9610won+10-1112
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10-1122
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21-1112
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.4010lost-10-1133
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6410lost-10-1123
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.2010won+12-1113
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9710lost-10-1125
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+15-1115
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.5210lost-10-1129
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.9010lost-10-1119
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.3110lost-10-1109
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.5410won+15-1099
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9210won+9-1115
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.1410won+11-1124
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.1410lost-10-1135
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.0710lost-10-1125
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.2510lost-10-1115
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.2410won+12-1105
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.2010lost-10-1118
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.1410lost-10-1108
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9510won+10-1098
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8410lost-10-1107
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.9210won+9-1097
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.0210won+10-1106
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.9610lost-10-1117
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.8310lost-10-1107
10.10.26Holy Cannoli – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.1710won+12-1097
10.10.26Elusive – MarsborneElusive3.1510lost-10-1108
10.10.26MOUZ – SpiritMOUZ2.2510won+13-1098
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.