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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-6869u
ROI
-12.7%
win rate
43%
bets
2823
drawdown
639.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-996u
period 6top-up-1000u
period 5top-up-997u
period 4top-up-992u
period 3top-up-986u
period 2top-up-999u
period 1top-up-898u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale17241%-703-9.1%80.4%Select
1% of bankroll282343%-2166-9.5%216.3%Select
Flat (10 units)282343%-2523-8.9%252.2%Select
2% of bankroll282343%-3716-10%367.8%Select
5% of bankroll282343%-6033-11.2%582.4%Select
10% of bankroll282343%-6869-12.7%639.2%Selected
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2823, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.570lost-0-5869
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.930lost-0-5869
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.191lost-1-5868
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.670won+1-5868
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.410won+1-5869
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.050won+0-5869
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.210lost-0-5870
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.090won+0-5869
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.780lost-0-5870
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.010lost-0-5869
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.290won+1-5869
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.110lost-0-5869
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.900lost-0-5869
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.161lost-1-5868
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.301lost-1-5868
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.041won+1-5867
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.111lost-1-5868
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.991lost-1-5867
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.101lost-1-5866
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.951lost-1-5866
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.181lost-1-5865
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.011lost-1-5864
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.691lost-1-5863
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.091lost-1-5862
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.681lost-1-5860
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.181won+2-5859
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.991lost-1-5861
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.452lost-2-5859
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.042lost-2-5858
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.022won+2-5856
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.552lost-2-5857
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.062won+2-5856
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.962lost-2-5857
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.962won+2-5856
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.092lost-2-5857
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.121won+3-5855
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.402lost-2-5858
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.912won+1-5857
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.642lost-2-5858
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.972lost-2-5856
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.452won+2-5855
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.522lost-2-5857
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.902lost-2-5855
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.312lost-2-5853
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.542won+3-5851
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.922won+2-5854
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.142won+2-5856
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.072lost-2-5857
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.142lost-2-5856
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.242won+2-5854
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.252lost-2-5856
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.202lost-2-5854
11.10.26FlyQuest – KZGKZG2.812lost-2-5852
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.843lost-3-5849
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.102won+3-5847
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.922won+2-5849
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.022won+2-5851
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.962lost-2-5853
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.832lost-2-5851
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.373lost-3-5849
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.