Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-3600u
ROI
-5.8%
win rate
47%
bets
1248
drawdown
252.7%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-927u
period 3top-up-934u
period 2top-up-883u
period 1top-up-857u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1248 | 47% | -261 | -2.1% | 43.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -316 | -2.6% | 43.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -719 | -3.2% | 81.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 61 | 52% | -1000 | -41.3% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -2102 | -4.5% | 183.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -3600 | -5.8% | 252.7% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1248, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2600 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | LPH | 2.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2592 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 8 | won | +11 | -2583 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | B8 | 2.37 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2595 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2586 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 9 | won | +9 | -2576 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2585 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.49 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2575 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | -2564 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2574 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | GamerLegion | 2.41 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2563 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 2.02 | 11 | won | +11 | -2551 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 10 | won | +10 | -2562 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Honvéd | 2.81 | 9 | won | +15 | -2572 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 8 | won | +8 | -2588 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 7 | won | +8 | -2595 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 6 | won | +7 | -2604 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | Noir Verse | 2.20 | 6 | won | +7 | -2611 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 6 | lost | -6 | -2618 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 2.05 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2611 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | Permitta | 2.01 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2604 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.93 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2597 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.54 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2588 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 9 | won | +9 | -2579 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.96 | 8 | won | +7 | -2588 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | Metizport | 1.90 | 7 | won | +6 | -2596 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | OG | 2.06 | 6 | won | +7 | -2602 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Fortress | 2.43 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2609 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.01 | 7 | won | +7 | -2602 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2608 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2601 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | Fortress | 2.69 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2593 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2584 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 9 | won | +11 | -2574 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | Bebop | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2586 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 9 | won | +12 | -2576 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | Bebop | 1.98 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2588 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.46 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2578 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2568 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.15 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2556 |
| 17.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-RUSTEC | Noir Verse | 2.19 | 14 | lost | -14 | -2543 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | NEW VISION | 2.10 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2529 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Inner Circle Academy | 1.96 | 15 | won | +14 | -2513 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 13 | won | +14 | -2527 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | Lavked | 2.70 | 11 | won | +19 | -2540 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – BASEMENT BOYS | EAC | 2.17 | 10 | won | +12 | -2560 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.15 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2572 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.20 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2560 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 1.94 | 14 | lost | -14 | -2548 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | Misa | 1.99 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2534 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | Mai Tai | 2.50 | 13 | won | +20 | -2518 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.21 | 12 | won | +15 | -2538 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.21 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2553 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2540 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | ENCE | 2.13 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2525 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Vitality | 1.94 | 15 | won | +14 | -2508 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 17 | lost | -17 | -2522 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Nexus | 2.41 | 19 | lost | -19 | -2506 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 21 | lost | -21 | -2487 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 23 | lost | -23 | -2466 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.