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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-614u
ROI
-2.8%
win rate
47%
bets
1243
drawdown
108.6%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-122u
period 3profit withdrawn+218u
period 2top-up-574u
period 1top-up-136u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale29049%+283+3%47.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
1% of bankroll124347%-315-2.7%65%Select
Flat (10 units)124347%-333-2.7%70.9%Select
2% of bankroll124347%-614-2.8%108.6%Selected
5% of bankroll124347%-1576-3.8%175.1%Select
10% of bankroll124347%-3176-7%259.1%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1243, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26mellren – Bushido Wildcatsmellren2.4617won+25386
20.08.26FaZe – VitalityVitality2.1517won+19361
20.08.26B8 – SpiritB82.3717lost-17342
20.08.26Metizport – ColorMetizport1.9217won+15359
20.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – benched godsbenched gods2.0216won+17343
20.08.26Natus Vincere – LegacyLegacy1.9016won+14327
20.08.26ex-Sashi Academy – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9616won+15312
20.08.26G2 Ares – BebopBebop1.9816lost-16297
19.08.26Honvéd – Bushido WildcatsHonvéd2.8116won+28313
19.08.26Permitta – Falcons ForceFalcons Force2.0215won+16285
19.08.26Metizport – Fire FluxMetizport1.9215won+14269
19.08.26The Last Resort – OGThe Last Resort1.9815lost-15256
19.08.26FUT – magicFUT1.9815won+15271
19.08.26G2 – AstralisAstralis2.0615lost-15256
19.08.26Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.1715won+17272
19.08.26Misa – The Last ResortMisa2.1915lost-15254
19.08.26Black Phoenix – RaccoonsRaccoons1.9515won+14269
19.08.26HYPERSPIRIT – PermittaPermitta2.0115lost-15255
19.08.26Misa – ex-Sashi AcademyMisa1.9816lost-16270
19.08.26GenOne – UNiTYUNiTY2.5416lost-16286
18.08.26Misa – Strael BoraMisa2.0916won+17302
18.08.26DONSTU – MOUZ NXTDONSTU2.0216lost-16285
18.08.26EAC – OGOG2.0616won+17301
18.08.26Color – The Last ResortColor1.9115won+14284
18.08.26Fire Flux – PCIFICPCIFIC1.9615won+14270
18.08.26Omega – EntropyEntropy2.6814won+24256
18.08.26Leo – ex-RUSTECLeo2.0115lost-15232
18.08.26WBT – Mai TaiMai Tai3.0715lost-15246
18.08.26Color – MisaMisa2.0615lost-15261
18.08.26Permitta – OGOG1.9415won+14277
18.08.26MOUZ NXT – SPARTAMOUZ NXT1.9815lost-15263
18.08.26Metizport – DONSTUDONSTU2.1316lost-16278
18.08.26EAC – FortressFortress2.6916lost-16294
18.08.26Honvéd – EntropyEntropy1.9216lost-16310
18.08.26PCIFIC – Just PlayersJust Players1.9116won+15326
17.08.26Revise – FORZE ReloadFORZE Reload1.9716lost-16311
17.08.26Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy2.8517lost-17328
17.08.26Nexus – G2 AresG2 Ares2.0516won+17345
17.08.26LPH – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.2317lost-17327
17.08.26ENCE – BERGBERG1.9617lost-17344
17.08.26benched gods – Phantom Academybenched gods2.0317won+17361
17.08.26ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIAQUINTESSÊNCIA1.9617lost-17344
16.08.26Lavked – INOX DivisionLavked2.7017won+28361
16.08.26Legacy – MIBRLegacy2.0216won+17333
16.08.26ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.9716won+15317
16.08.26Keyd Stars – ImperialKeyd Stars2.2116lost-16301
16.08.26Astralis – Ninjas in PyjamasAstralis1.9316won+15317
16.08.26Fire Flux – GUESSGUESS1.9416lost-16303
16.08.26Mai Tai – BERGMai Tai2.5016won+24319
16.08.26INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYSBASEMENT BOYS2.2115won+19295
16.08.26MOUZ – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.2116lost-16277
16.08.26ENCE – WBTENCE2.1316lost-16292
16.08.26BERG – HAVUHAVU2.1916won+19308
16.08.26The MongolZ – paiNpaiN1.9516lost-16290
16.08.26Lynn Vision – VitalityVitality1.9416won+15306
16.08.26ROUNDS – VexarROUNDS2.2016lost-16291
16.08.26ex-MANA – ex-RUSTECex-MANA2.3516lost-16307
16.08.26paiN Academy – ALKApaiN Academy2.1817lost-17323
15.08.26Spirit – BIGBIG2.0717lost-17340
15.08.26Noir Verse – ex-Sashi AcademyNoir Verse1.9417won+16357
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.