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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-3810u
ROI
-10%
win rate
43%
bets
2824
drawdown
376.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-540u
period 6top-up-642u
period 5top-up-527u
period 4top-up-543u
period 3top-up-518u
period 2top-up-655u
period 1top-up-384u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale21741%-686-6.7%81.2%Select
1% of bankroll282443%-2187-9.5%217.8%Select
Flat (10 units)282443%-2481-8.8%247.1%Select
2% of bankroll282443%-3810-10%376.2%Selected
5% of bankroll282443%-6205-10.9%598.4%Select
10% of bankroll282443%-6925-9.7%644.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2824, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.989lost-9-2810
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5710lost-10-2801
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.4210lost-10-2791
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.1910lost-10-2782
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.6710won+16-2772
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.059won+10-2788
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.419won+13-2798
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.219lost-9-2811
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.099won+10-2801
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.789lost-9-2811
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10-2802
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.299won+12-2792
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10-2804
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.9010lost-10-2795
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.1610lost-10-2785
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.3010lost-10-2775
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+10-2765
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10-2776
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1110lost-10-2765
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.1011lost-11-2755
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.9511lost-11-2745
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.1811lost-11-2734
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.0111lost-11-2723
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.6911lost-11-2712
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.0912lost-12-2700
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.6812lost-12-2689
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.1812won+14-2677
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4512lost-12-2691
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9912lost-12-2679
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.0712won+13-2667
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.0212won+12-2679
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.5412lost-12-2691
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.0612won+12-2679
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9612lost-12-2691
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9612won+11-2680
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6112lost-12-2691
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1211won+24-2679
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.4012lost-12-2703
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.9111won+10-2691
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6412lost-12-2702
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4511won+16-2690
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9712lost-12-2707
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.5212lost-12-2695
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.9012lost-12-2683
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.3112lost-12-2671
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.5412won+18-2659
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5512lost-12-2677
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.1412won+13-2665
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.0712lost-12-2679
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.1412lost-12-2667
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.2013lost-13-2654
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.2412won+15-2642
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.0712won+13-2657
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.1412lost-12-2670
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.1012won+13-2658
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8412lost-12-2671
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.9212won+11-2659
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.0212won+12-2670
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.9612lost-12-2682
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.8312lost-12-2670
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.