?

Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2259u
ROI
-8%
win rate
43%
bets
2825
drawdown
224.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-493u
period 6top-up-651u
period 5top-up-441u
period 4top-up-130u
period 3top-up-140u
period 2top-up-267u
period 1top-up-137u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale15543%-630-11.1%74.8%Select
1% of bankroll282543%-1950-8.4%194.1%Select
Flat (10 units)282543%-2259-8%224.4%Select
2% of bankroll282543%-3375-8.7%333.4%Select
5% of bankroll282543%-5683-9.5%548.4%Select
10% of bankroll282543%-6770-10%630%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2825, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26BET-M – FORZE ReloadBET-M2.1310lost-10-1259
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9810lost-10-1249
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5710lost-10-1239
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9310lost-10-1229
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.1910lost-10-1219
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.6710won+17-1209
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.4110won+14-1225
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9010lost-10-1240
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.2110lost-10-1230
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.0910won+11-1220
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.7810lost-10-1231
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10-1221
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2910won+13-1211
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10-1223
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.9010lost-10-1213
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.0410lost-10-1203
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.9010lost-10-1193
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+10-1183
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1110lost-10-1194
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10-1184
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.1010lost-10-1174
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.9510lost-10-1164
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.1810lost-10-1154
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.0110lost-10-1144
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.6910lost-10-1134
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.0910lost-10-1124
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.6810lost-10-1114
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.1810won+12-1104
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4510lost-10-1116
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9910lost-10-1106
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.0710won+11-1096
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.0210won+10-1106
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.5510lost-10-1117
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.0610won+11-1107
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9610lost-10-1117
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.1810lost-10-1107
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10-1097
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21-1087
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.4010lost-10-1108
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6410lost-10-1098
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.2010won+12-1088
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9710lost-10-1100
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+14-1090
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.5210lost-10-1105
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.9010lost-10-1095
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.3110lost-10-1085
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.5410won+15-1075
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9210won+9-1090
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.1410won+11-1099
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.1410lost-10-1111
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.0710lost-10-1101
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.2010lost-10-1091
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.0710won+11-1081
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.2410won+12-1091
11.10.26FlyQuest – KZGKZG2.8110lost-10-1104
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8410lost-10-1094
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9510won+10-1084
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.9210won+9-1093
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.0210won+10-1103
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.9610lost-10-1113
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.