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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-261u
ROI
-2.1%
win rate
47%
bets
1248
drawdown
43.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-91u
period 3top-up-62u
period 2top-up-61u
period 1top-up-47u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Flat (10 units)124847%-261-2.1%43.9%Select
1% of bankroll124847%-316-2.6%43.7%Select
2% of bankroll124847%-719-3.2%81.2%Select
Martingale6152%-1000-41.3%100%Select
5% of bankroll124847%-2102-4.5%183.2%Select
10% of bankroll124847%-3600-5.8%252.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1248, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Lavked – ENCELavked1.9610lost-10739
20.08.26LPH – WBTLPH2.0010lost-10749
20.08.26mellren – Bushido Wildcatsmellren2.4610won+15759
20.08.26B8 – SpiritB82.3710lost-10744
20.08.26OG – SPARTASPARTA2.0210lost-10754
20.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – benched godsbenched gods2.0210won+10764
20.08.26Lavked – UNiTYLavked1.9510lost-10754
20.08.26Falcons – The MongolZThe MongolZ2.4910lost-10764
20.08.26ex-Sashi Academy – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9610won+10774
20.08.26G2 Ares – BebopBebop1.9810lost-10764
19.08.26GamerLegion – MOUZGamerLegion2.4110lost-10774
19.08.26FURIA – AuroraFURIA2.0210won+10784
19.08.26EAC – ColorColor2.0110won+10774
19.08.26Honvéd – Bushido WildcatsHonvéd2.8110won+18764
19.08.26FUT – magicFUT1.9810won+10746
19.08.26Lavked – ReviseLavked2.1710won+12736
19.08.26Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.1710won+12724
19.08.26Noir Verse – ENCENoir Verse2.2010won+12713
19.08.26Misa – The Last ResortMisa2.1910lost-10701
19.08.26MOUZ NXT – SPARTAMOUZ NXT2.0510lost-10711
19.08.26HYPERSPIRIT – PermittaPermitta2.0110lost-10721
19.08.26Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXTMOUZ NXT1.9310lost-10731
19.08.26GenOne – UNiTYUNiTY2.5410lost-10741
18.08.26Misa – Strael BoraMisa2.0910won+11751
18.08.26Fire Flux – PCIFICPCIFIC1.9610won+10740
18.08.26Metizport – SPARTAMetizport1.9010won+9730
18.08.26EAC – OGOG2.0610won+11721
18.08.26Fortress – PermittaFortress2.4310lost-10711
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexarex-Zero Tenacity2.0110won+10721
18.08.26WBT – Mai TaiMai Tai3.0710lost-10710
18.08.26Bushido Wildcats – MisaMisa3.5010lost-10720
18.08.26EAC – FortressFortress2.6910lost-10730
18.08.26Metizport – DONSTUDONSTU2.1310lost-10740
18.08.26Omega – Fire FluxFire Flux2.2910won+13750
18.08.26MASONIC – BebopBebop2.0810lost-10738
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTECex-Zero Tenacity2.4110won+14748
18.08.26Bebop – benched godsBebop1.9810lost-10733
18.08.26ENCE – Mai TaiMai Tai2.4610lost-10743
17.08.26Revise – FORZE ReloadFORZE Reload1.9710lost-10753
17.08.26mellren – Noir VerseNoir Verse2.1510lost-10763
17.08.26Noir Verse – ex-RUSTECNoir Verse2.1910lost-10773
17.08.26NEW VISION – VexarNEW VISION2.1010lost-10783
17.08.26Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero TenacityInner Circle Academy1.9610won+10793
17.08.26benched gods – Phantom Academybenched gods2.0310won+10784
16.08.26Lavked – INOX DivisionLavked2.7010won+17774
16.08.26EAC – BASEMENT BOYSEAC2.1710won+12757
16.08.26DragonClaw – ex-Zero TenacityDragonClaw2.1510lost-10745
16.08.26Keyd Stars – ImperialKeyd Stars2.2010lost-10755
16.08.26Fire Flux – GUESSGUESS1.9410lost-10765
16.08.26UNiTY – MisaMisa1.9910lost-10775
16.08.26Mai Tai – BERGMai Tai2.5010won+15785
16.08.26INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYSBASEMENT BOYS2.2110won+12770
16.08.26MOUZ – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.2110lost-10758
16.08.26EAC – LavkedLavked1.9710lost-10768
16.08.26ENCE – WBTENCE2.1310lost-10778
16.08.26Lynn Vision – VitalityVitality1.9410won+9788
16.08.26ROUNDS – VexarROUNDS2.2010lost-10778
16.08.26Nexus – Bushido WildcatsNexus2.4110lost-10788
16.08.26ex-MANA – ex-RUSTECex-MANA2.3510lost-10798
16.08.26paiN Academy – ALKApaiN Academy2.1810lost-10808
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.