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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-6929u
ROI
-9.4%
win rate
42%
bets
2823
drawdown
644.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-999u
period 6top-up-1000u
period 5top-up-998u
period 4top-up-997u
period 3top-up-993u
period 2top-up-999u
period 1top-up-943u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale21741%-686-6.7%81.2%Select
1% of bankroll282342%-2336-10.1%232.4%Select
Flat (10 units)282342%-2721-9.6%270.6%Select
2% of bankroll282342%-3988-10.5%393.6%Select
5% of bankroll282342%-6282-10.8%605.8%Select
10% of bankroll282342%-6929-9.4%644.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2823, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.570lost-0-5929
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.420lost-0-5929
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.190lost-0-5929
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.670won+0-5929
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.900lost-0-5929
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.410won+0-5929
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.210lost-0-5929
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.090won+0-5929
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.780lost-0-5929
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.010lost-0-5929
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.290won+0-5929
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.110lost-0-5929
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.900lost-0-5929
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.160lost-0-5929
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.300lost-0-5929
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.040won+0-5929
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.110lost-0-5929
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.990lost-0-5929
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.100lost-0-5929
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.960won+0-5928
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.260lost-0-5929
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.010lost-0-5928
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.690lost-0-5928
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.090lost-0-5928
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.680lost-0-5928
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.180lost-0-5928
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.990lost-0-5928
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.450lost-0-5927
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.040lost-0-5927
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.020won+0-5927
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.540lost-0-5927
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.040lost-0-5927
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.960lost-0-5926
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.960won+0-5926
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.610lost-0-5926
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.120won+1-5926
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.400lost-0-5927
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.640lost-0-5926
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.970lost-0-5926
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.450won+1-5925
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.970lost-0-5926
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.520lost-0-5925
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.901lost-1-5925
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.311lost-1-5925
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.541won+1-5924
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.920won+0-5925
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.140won+0-5925
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.140lost-0-5926
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.071lost-1-5925
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.070won+0-5925
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.240won+1-5925
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.250lost-0-5926
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.141lost-1-5925
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.950won+0-5925
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.100won+0-5925
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.920won+0-5926
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.020won+0-5926
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.960lost-0-5926
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.830lost-0-5926
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.370lost-0-5925
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.