?

Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-3988u
ROI
-10.5%
win rate
42%
bets
2823
drawdown
393.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-704u
period 6top-up-656u
period 5top-up-527u
period 4top-up-543u
period 3top-up-518u
period 2top-up-655u
period 1top-up-384u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale21741%-686-6.7%81.2%Select
1% of bankroll282342%-2336-10.1%232.4%Select
Flat (10 units)282342%-2721-9.6%270.6%Select
2% of bankroll282342%-3988-10.5%393.6%Select
5% of bankroll282342%-6282-10.8%605.8%Select
10% of bankroll282342%-6929-9.4%644.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2823, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.576lost-6-2988
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.426lost-6-2982
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.196lost-6-2976
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.676won+10-2970
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.906lost-6-2980
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.416won+9-2974
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.216lost-6-2982
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.096won+7-2976
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.786lost-6-2983
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.016lost-6-2976
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.296won+8-2970
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.116lost-6-2978
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.906lost-6-2972
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.167lost-7-2965
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.307lost-7-2959
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.047won+7-2952
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.117lost-7-2959
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.997lost-7-2952
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.107lost-7-2946
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.967won+7-2939
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.267lost-7-2945
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.017lost-7-2938
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.697lost-7-2931
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.097lost-7-2924
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.687lost-7-2917
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.188lost-8-2909
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.998lost-8-2902
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.458lost-8-2894
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.048lost-8-2886
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.028won+8-2878
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.548lost-8-2886
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.048lost-8-2878
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.968lost-8-2869
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.968won+8-2861
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.618lost-8-2869
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.128won+17-2860
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.408lost-8-2878
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.648lost-8-2869
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.979lost-9-2861
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.458won+12-2852
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.979lost-9-2864
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.529lost-9-2856
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.909lost-9-2847
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.319lost-9-2838
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.549won+14-2829
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.929won+8-2843
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148won+10-2851
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.149lost-9-2860
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.079lost-9-2852
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.079won+9-2843
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.248won+10-2852
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.259lost-9-2863
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.149lost-9-2854
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.959won+8-2845
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.108won+9-2853
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.928won+8-2863
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.028won+8-2870
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.968lost-8-2879
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.838lost-8-2870
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.379lost-9-2862
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.