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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-719u
ROI
-3.2%
win rate
47%
bets
1248
drawdown
81.2%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-221u
period 3top-up-187u
period 2top-up-168u
period 1top-up-142u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Flat (10 units)124847%-261-2.1%43.9%Select
1% of bankroll124847%-316-2.6%43.7%Selected
2% of bankroll124847%-719-3.2%81.2%Select
Martingale6152%-1000-41.3%100%Select
5% of bankroll124847%-2102-4.5%183.2%Select
10% of bankroll124847%-3600-5.8%252.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1248, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Lavked – ENCELavked1.9616lost-16281
20.08.26LPH – WBTLPH2.0016lost-16297
20.08.26mellren – Bushido Wildcatsmellren2.4616won+23313
20.08.26B8 – SpiritB82.3716lost-16290
20.08.26OG – SPARTASPARTA2.0216lost-16306
20.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – benched godsbenched gods2.0216won+16323
20.08.26Lavked – UNiTYLavked1.9516lost-16306
20.08.26Falcons – The MongolZThe MongolZ2.4917lost-17323
20.08.26ex-Sashi Academy – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9616won+16339
20.08.26G2 Ares – BebopBebop1.9817lost-17324
19.08.26GamerLegion – MOUZGamerLegion2.4117lost-17340
19.08.26FURIA – AuroraFURIA2.0217won+17358
19.08.26EAC – ColorColor2.0116won+17340
19.08.26Honvéd – Bushido WildcatsHonvéd2.8116won+29324
19.08.26FUT – magicFUT1.9816won+15295
19.08.26Lavked – ReviseLavked2.1715won+18280
19.08.26Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.1715won+17262
19.08.26Noir Verse – ENCENoir Verse2.2014won+17245
19.08.26Misa – The Last ResortMisa2.1915lost-15227
19.08.26MOUZ NXT – SPARTAMOUZ NXT2.0515lost-15242
19.08.26HYPERSPIRIT – PermittaPermitta2.0115lost-15257
19.08.26Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXTMOUZ NXT1.9316lost-16273
19.08.26GenOne – UNiTYUNiTY2.5416lost-16288
18.08.26Misa – Strael BoraMisa2.0916won+17304
18.08.26Fire Flux – PCIFICPCIFIC1.9615won+15287
18.08.26Metizport – SPARTAMetizport1.9015won+14272
18.08.26EAC – OGOG2.0615won+16259
18.08.26Fortress – PermittaFortress2.4315lost-15243
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexarex-Zero Tenacity2.0115won+15258
18.08.26WBT – Mai TaiMai Tai3.0715lost-15243
18.08.26Bushido Wildcats – MisaMisa3.5015lost-15258
18.08.26EAC – FortressFortress2.6916lost-16274
18.08.26Metizport – DONSTUDONSTU2.1316lost-16290
18.08.26Omega – Fire FluxFire Flux2.2916won+20306
18.08.26MASONIC – BebopBebop2.0816lost-16285
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTECex-Zero Tenacity2.4116won+22301
18.08.26Bebop – benched godsBebop1.9816lost-16279
18.08.26ENCE – Mai TaiMai Tai2.4616lost-16295
17.08.26Revise – FORZE ReloadFORZE Reload1.9717lost-17311
17.08.26mellren – Noir VerseNoir Verse2.1517lost-17328
17.08.26Noir Verse – ex-RUSTECNoir Verse2.1917lost-17345
17.08.26NEW VISION – VexarNEW VISION2.1018lost-18362
17.08.26Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero TenacityInner Circle Academy1.9617won+16380
17.08.26benched gods – Phantom Academybenched gods2.0317won+17363
16.08.26Lavked – INOX DivisionLavked2.7016won+28346
16.08.26EAC – BASEMENT BOYSEAC2.1716won+19318
16.08.26DragonClaw – ex-Zero TenacityDragonClaw2.1516lost-16299
16.08.26Keyd Stars – ImperialKeyd Stars2.2017lost-17316
16.08.26Fire Flux – GUESSGUESS1.9417lost-17332
16.08.26UNiTY – MisaMisa1.9917lost-17349
16.08.26Mai Tai – BERGMai Tai2.5017won+25366
16.08.26INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYSBASEMENT BOYS2.2116won+20341
16.08.26MOUZ – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.2117lost-17321
16.08.26EAC – LavkedLavked1.9717lost-17338
16.08.26ENCE – WBTENCE2.1317lost-17355
16.08.26Lynn Vision – VitalityVitality1.9417won+16372
16.08.26ROUNDS – VexarROUNDS2.2017lost-17356
16.08.26Nexus – Bushido WildcatsNexus2.4118lost-18374
16.08.26ex-MANA – ex-RUSTECex-MANA2.3518lost-18392
16.08.26paiN Academy – ALKApaiN Academy2.1819lost-19410
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.