Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-110u
ROI
-4.4%
win rate
55%
bets
249
drawdown
19.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-66u
period 3top-up-5u
period 2top-up-15u
period 1top-up-24u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 55% | -110 | -4.4% | 19.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -117 | -4.7% | 19.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -246 | -5% | 37.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 213 | 54% | -593 | -10.4% | 71.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -698 | -5.8% | 84.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -1570 | -7% | 140.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 890 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 882 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 874 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 867 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 858 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 868 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | WBT | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 878 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | 9z | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 871 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 881 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 10 | lost | -10 | 891 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | The Last Resort | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 901 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 911 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 903 |
| 13.08.26 | Honvéd – Bebop | Honvéd | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 895 |
| 13.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 905 |
| 12.08.26 | G2 – M80 | M80 | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 898 |
| 10.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.57 | 10 | won | +6 | 908 |
| 09.08.26 | UNiTY – Nexus | Nexus | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 903 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | LFO 7 | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 913 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | DENDELE | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 904 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 914 |
| 08.08.26 | Butterfly – CYBERSHOKE | Butterfly | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 906 |
| 08.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | Iberian Soul | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 916 |
| 08.08.26 | SadFamous – Eternal Fire | Eternal Fire | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 910 |
| 08.08.26 | Sangal – Zeste | Sangal | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 902 |
| 07.08.26 | MANGANESE – SINNERS | MANGANESE | 1.70 | 10 | lost | -10 | 894 |
| 07.08.26 | z to forward – DUSTY | DUSTY | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 904 |
| 07.08.26 | HEROIC – REM | REM | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 895 |
| 06.08.26 | eSuba – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 905 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 915 |
| 06.08.26 | Lavked – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.57 | 10 | won | +6 | 908 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Leo | Leo | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 903 |
| 04.08.26 | fnatic – EAC | fnatic | 1.47 | 10 | won | +5 | 913 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 908 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Phantom | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 901 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 10 | won | +5 | 911 |
| 04.08.26 | Finishers – Mindfreak | Finishers | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 906 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 916 |
| 03.08.26 | Johnny Speeds – Metizport | Metizport | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 926 |
| 03.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 936 |
| 02.08.26 | MIBR – BESTIA | BESTIA | 1.70 | 10 | lost | -10 | 946 |
| 02.08.26 | aimclub – Spirit Academy | aimclub | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 956 |
| 02.08.26 | FAVBET – Misa | FAVBET | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 966 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Mai Tai | Bushido Wildcats | 1.58 | 10 | won | +6 | 976 |
| 02.08.26 | SportsBetExpert – Marsborne | Marsborne | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 971 |
| 01.08.26 | MIBR – ShindeN | ShindeN | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 981 |
| 01.08.26 | BC.Game – SINQU | BC.Game | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 991 |
| 01.08.26 | JiJieHao – GenOne | GenOne | 1.48 | 10 | won | +5 | 982 |
| 01.08.26 | FaZe – Spirit | Spirit | 1.61 | 10 | won | +6 | 977 |
| 01.08.26 | Marsborne – regain | Marsborne | 1.85 | 10 | won | +9 | 971 |
| 01.08.26 | LAG – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 962 |
| 31.07.26 | Lavked – megoshort | Lavked | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 956 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | Just Players | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 966 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-Young Ninjas – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Young Ninjas | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 960 |
| 31.07.26 | FaZe – The MongolZ | FaZe | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 952 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 944 |
| 31.07.26 | INFINITE – SPARTA | INFINITE | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 954 |
| 30.07.26 | SPARTA – NEW VISION | SPARTA | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 964 |
| 30.07.26 | GenOne – ex-RUSTEC | GenOne | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 956 |
| 30.07.26 | 1win – los kogutos | 1win | 1.57 | 10 | won | +6 | 950 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.