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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-3221u
ROI
-3.9%
win rate
57%
bets
5552
drawdown
328.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-178u
period 6top-up-509u
period 5top-up-685u
period 4top-up-760u
period 3top-up-584u
period 2top-up-357u
period 1top-up-148u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale47653%-1165-7.3%112.8%Select
1% of bankroll555257%-1832-3.8%189.4%Select
Flat (10 units)555257%-2089-3.8%220.2%Select
2% of bankroll555257%-3221-3.9%328.6%Select
5% of bankroll555257%-5559-3.9%555.3%Select
10% of bankroll555257%-6703-3.9%352.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5552, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Falcons – Ninjas in PyjamasFalcons1.8716won+14-2221
14.10.26Bushido Wildcats – BAKSBushido Wildcats1.7916lost-16-2235
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.4916won+8-2219
14.10.26ex-RUSTEC – mellrenex-RUSTEC1.7716won+12-2227
14.10.26Astralis – SashiAstralis1.5516won+9-2239
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticHOTU1.8416won+13-2248
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.6615won+10-2261
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.4616lost-16-2271
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.7416lost-16-2256
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.8716won+14-2239
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.5516lost-16-2253
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.6516won+10-2237
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.7216lost-16-2247
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.4316won+7-2231
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7816won+12-2238
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6016lost-16-2250
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7116won+11-2234
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.4016won+6-2246
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.8516lost-16-2252
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.5316won+9-2236
13.10.26100 Thieves – Liquid100 Thieves1.7616won+12-2244
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLJiJieHao1.6716won+10-2256
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.6015won+9-2267
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.8715won+13-2276
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7615lost-15-2289
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7015won+11-2273
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.8015won+12-2284
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.7115won+11-2296
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademySpirit Academy1.6315lost-15-2307
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.8315won+12-2292
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersZomblers1.8215lost-15-2304
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECNuclear TigeRES1.7015lost-15-2289
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersGalorys1.6215won+9-2273
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPLP1.6715won+10-2283
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden Hordeex-RUSTEC1.5815won+9-2293
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.7815won+11-2301
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.4514won+7-2313
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.8314won+12-2319
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeGenOne1.4515lost-15-2331
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.7214won+10-2316
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.4614won+6-2327
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsPRIVATE1.6614lost-14-2333
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XINuclear TigeRES1.3414won+5-2319
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.7914won+11-2324
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.5314won+7-2335
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingLynn Vision1.7514won+10-2342
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.7414lost-14-2353
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.7714lost-14-2339
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.5014won+7-2324
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.8115lost-15-2331
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8Rooster1.7514won+11-2317
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.7415lost-15-2328
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8214won+12-2313
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.8215lost-15-2325
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.6614won+10-2310
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEDENDELE1.8715lost-15-2320
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.4815won+7-2305
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters1.7214won+10-2312
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.3515lost-15-2322
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsNT1.7915lost-15-2308
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.