Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-99u
ROI
-3.9%
win rate
55%
bets
251
drawdown
15.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+6u
period 3profit withdrawn+12u
period 2top-up-41u
period 1top-up-75u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 251 | 55% | +386 | +5.8% | 31% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 251 | 55% | -99 | -3.9% | 15.9% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -104 | -4.2% | 16.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -219 | -4.5% | 32.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -616 | -5.3% | 82.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -1380 | -6.6% | 164.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 251, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 901 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 10 | lost | -10 | 894 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 10 | lost | -10 | 904 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 914 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 907 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | mellren | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 899 |
| 16.08.26 | eternal premium – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 892 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 885 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | Vexar | 1.65 | 10 | won | +7 | 877 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 10 | won | +6 | 870 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 865 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 875 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Lavked | SINQU | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 885 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | Arch | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 895 |
| 13.08.26 | Subtop De France – Vexar | Vexar | 1.56 | 10 | won | +6 | 905 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 899 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 10 | lost | -10 | 909 |
| 12.08.26 | BIG – Aurora | BIG | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 919 |
| 09.08.26 | Sashi – BIG | Sashi | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 910 |
| 09.08.26 | FOKUS – Acend | Acend | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 920 |
| 09.08.26 | Echo – GenOne | GenOne | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 911 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | DENDELE | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 905 |
| 08.08.26 | Jam – UNiTY | Jam | 1.61 | 10 | won | +6 | 915 |
| 08.08.26 | Fluxo – DUSTY | Fluxo | 1.63 | 10 | won | +6 | 909 |
| 08.08.26 | Black Phoenix – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 903 |
| 08.08.26 | Dark Tigre – MANGANESE | Dark Tigre | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 894 |
| 08.08.26 | Liquid – Metizport | Liquid | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 885 |
| 07.08.26 | Citron – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 877 |
| 07.08.26 | INFINITE – Aogiri | INFINITE | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 871 |
| 07.08.26 | ex-GUARA – MEIA NOITE | ex-GUARA | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 863 |
| 05.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.85 | 10 | won | +9 | 873 |
| 05.08.26 | UNO MILLE – ODDIK Academy | UNO MILLE | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 865 |
| 05.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – los kogutos | CYBERSHOKE | 1.67 | 10 | won | +7 | 857 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 850 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 860 |
| 04.08.26 | Acend – Betclic | Acend | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 870 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | Yawara | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 880 |
| 03.08.26 | Imperial – Procyon | Imperial | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 871 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 866 |
| 03.08.26 | SPARTA – ex-Young Ninjas | ex-Young Ninjas | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 876 |
| 03.08.26 | Noir Verse – Fortress | Fortress | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 886 |
| 03.08.26 | Rooster – Finishers | Rooster | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 896 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 889 |
| 02.08.26 | Sashi – SINNERS | Sashi | 1.58 | 10 | won | +6 | 899 |
| 02.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 893 |
| 02.08.26 | 9INE – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | 885 |
| 01.08.26 | ENCE – BC.Game | ENCE | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 880 |
| 01.08.26 | Just Players – Sashi | Just Players | 1.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 890 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – atputies | Liquid | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 900 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 892 |
| 01.08.26 | ENCE – HAVU | ENCE | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 902 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – ROUNDS | HAVU | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 895 |
| 31.07.26 | paiN – Astralis | paiN | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 887 |
| 31.07.26 | INOX Division – Falcons Force | INOX Division | 1.39 | 10 | won | +4 | 897 |
| 31.07.26 | SINNERS – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 1.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 893 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 903 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 895 |
| 31.07.26 | BESTIA – Galorys | Galorys | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 905 |
| 30.07.26 | aimclub – Spirit Academy | aimclub | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 915 |
| 30.07.26 | GenOne – ex-RUSTEC | GenOne | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 906 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.