Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-2169u
ROI
-13.2%
win rate
48%
bets
251
drawdown
222%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-496u
period 3top-up-598u
period 2top-up-110u
period 1top-up-965u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -367 | -15.4% | 44% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 251 | 48% | -403 | -16.1% | 48.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -674 | -14.8% | 79.8% | Select |
| Martingale | 47 | 34% | -1000 | -34.5% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -1367 | -13.7% | 154% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -2169 | -13.2% | 222% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 251, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.57 | 48 | won | +27 | -1169 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | OG | 1.77 | 44 | won | +34 | -1196 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.75 | 41 | won | +31 | -1230 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.73 | 38 | won | +28 | -1261 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.80 | 36 | won | +28 | -1289 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 33 | won | +21 | -1317 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Imperial | 1.63 | 31 | won | +20 | -1338 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 29 | won | +22 | -1358 |
| 15.08.26 | Imperial – BESTIA | Imperial | 1.82 | 27 | won | +22 | -1380 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 26 | won | +14 | -1402 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.52 | 29 | lost | -29 | -1417 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.82 | 32 | lost | -32 | -1388 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 35 | lost | -35 | -1356 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 33 | won | +18 | -1321 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 32 | won | +17 | -1339 |
| 13.08.26 | Just Players – MOUZ NXT | Just Players | 1.59 | 35 | lost | -35 | -1356 |
| 12.08.26 | MIBR – Astralis | MIBR | 1.69 | 39 | lost | -39 | -1321 |
| 11.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.63 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1282 |
| 09.08.26 | EYEBALLERS – K27 | K27 | 1.79 | 40 | won | +32 | -1239 |
| 09.08.26 | Eternal Fire – BIG | Eternal Fire | 1.80 | 45 | lost | -45 | -1270 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | fnatic | 1.69 | 42 | won | +29 | -1226 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 39 | won | +32 | -1255 |
| 08.08.26 | 1win – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.86 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1286 |
| 08.08.26 | Procyon – ODDIK Academy | ODDIK Academy | 1.68 | 48 | lost | -48 | -1243 |
| 08.08.26 | Spirit HU – Acend | Acend | 1.58 | 45 | won | +26 | -1195 |
| 08.08.26 | K27 – SINNERS | K27 | 1.70 | 42 | won | +30 | -1221 |
| 08.08.26 | Imperial – Galorys | Imperial | 1.72 | 39 | won | +28 | -1251 |
| 07.08.26 | HEROIC – 9INE | HEROIC | 1.86 | 36 | won | +31 | -1279 |
| 07.08.26 | ABT – 9INE | ABT | 1.85 | 40 | lost | -40 | -1310 |
| 06.08.26 | WW – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.83 | 37 | won | +31 | -1270 |
| 05.08.26 | MAYBE – eSuba | eSuba | 1.86 | 41 | lost | -41 | -1301 |
| 05.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – los kogutos | CYBERSHOKE | 1.67 | 39 | won | +26 | -1259 |
| 05.08.26 | GamersLab – NAVI Junior | GamersLab | 1.87 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1286 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 41 | won | +19 | -1242 |
| 04.08.26 | Acend – Betclic | Acend | 1.67 | 46 | lost | -46 | -1262 |
| 04.08.26 | Rooster – FURY | Rooster | 1.75 | 43 | won | +32 | -1216 |
| 03.08.26 | Walczaki – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.74 | 40 | won | +29 | -1248 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.79 | 44 | lost | -44 | -1277 |
| 03.08.26 | WBT – Leo | WBT | 1.85 | 49 | lost | -49 | -1233 |
| 03.08.26 | Noir Verse – Fortress | Fortress | 1.88 | 54 | lost | -54 | -1184 |
| 03.08.26 | 1win – ex-RUBY | ex-RUBY | 1.50 | 60 | lost | -60 | -1130 |
| 03.08.26 | WW – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.79 | 56 | won | +44 | -1069 |
| 02.08.26 | 9INE – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.50 | 62 | lost | -62 | -1114 |
| 02.08.26 | FAVBET – MOUZ NXT | FAVBET | 1.74 | 69 | lost | -69 | -1051 |
| 02.08.26 | Leo – Vexar | Leo | 1.76 | 64 | won | +49 | -982 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | THE UNIT | 1.84 | 71 | lost | -71 | -1031 |
| 01.08.26 | THE UNIT – Trouble makers | THE UNIT | 1.88 | 66 | won | +58 | -960 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – Betclic | Betclic | 1.84 | 73 | lost | -73 | -1017 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.71 | 81 | lost | -81 | -944 |
| 01.08.26 | Walczaki – Lazer Cats | Walczaki | 1.71 | 90 | lost | -90 | -863 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | RayRay | 1.79 | 100 | lost | -100 | -773 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | mellren | 1.65 | 38 | won | +25 | -673 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | BC.Game | 1.88 | 35 | won | +30 | -698 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.79 | 32 | won | +25 | -728 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | HOTU | 1.50 | 31 | won | +15 | -754 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 34 | lost | -34 | -769 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.68 | 38 | lost | -38 | -735 |
| 30.07.26 | Just Players – Atreides | Just Players | 1.53 | 36 | won | +19 | -697 |
| 30.07.26 | Imperial – ShindeN | Imperial | 1.71 | 40 | lost | -40 | -716 |
| 30.07.26 | ENCE – BOJONG | BOJONG | 1.82 | 44 | lost | -44 | -676 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.