Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-856u
ROI
-19.2%
win rate
46%
bets
253
drawdown
88.6%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-189u
period 3top-up-367u
period 2top-up-130u
period 1top-up-171u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 253 | 46% | -451 | -19% | 47.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 253 | 46% | -476 | -18.8% | 50% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 253 | 46% | -856 | -19.2% | 88.6% | Selected |
| Martingale | 13 | 31% | -1000 | -90% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 253 | 46% | -1841 | -19.9% | 183.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 253 | 46% | -2908 | -21% | 274% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 253, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | OG – Metizport | OG | 1.83 | 17 | lost | -17 | 144 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 16 | won | +13 | 161 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 17 | lost | -17 | 148 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.84 | 16 | won | +14 | 164 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 16 | won | +13 | 151 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 16 | won | +8 | 138 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | Revise | 1.81 | 16 | won | +13 | 130 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 16 | lost | -16 | 117 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | BERG | 1.51 | 16 | lost | -16 | 133 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.65 | 16 | won | +10 | 149 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.84 | 16 | lost | -16 | 139 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Misa | 1.74 | 16 | won | +12 | 155 |
| 14.08.26 | Lavked – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.56 | 17 | lost | -17 | 143 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.83 | 17 | lost | -17 | 160 |
| 14.08.26 | TYLOO – Lynn Vision | TYLOO | 1.80 | 17 | lost | -17 | 177 |
| 14.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – ALKA | ALKA | 1.72 | 17 | won | +12 | 194 |
| 13.08.26 | BERG – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 1.68 | 17 | lost | -17 | 182 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 18 | lost | -18 | 199 |
| 12.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Legacy | Legacy | 1.85 | 17 | won | +15 | 217 |
| 10.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Ground Zero | 1.70 | 17 | won | +12 | 202 |
| 09.08.26 | HOTU – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 1.79 | 17 | lost | -17 | 190 |
| 09.08.26 | Virtus.pro – Sashi | Virtus.pro | 1.67 | 18 | lost | -18 | 207 |
| 08.08.26 | ALKA – paiN Academy | ALKA | 1.79 | 18 | won | +14 | 225 |
| 08.08.26 | Butterfly – CYBERSHOKE | Butterfly | 1.75 | 18 | lost | -18 | 211 |
| 08.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – Isurus | Isurus | 1.43 | 18 | won | +8 | 229 |
| 08.08.26 | Vael – OG | OG | 1.87 | 17 | won | +15 | 222 |
| 08.08.26 | Dark Tigre – SINNERS | Dark Tigre | 1.71 | 18 | lost | -18 | 206 |
| 08.08.26 | Imperial – Galorys | Imperial | 1.75 | 18 | won | +13 | 224 |
| 07.08.26 | Spirit HU – NRG | NRG | 1.52 | 17 | won | +9 | 211 |
| 07.08.26 | Galactik rebels – lafox | lafox | 1.88 | 18 | lost | -18 | 202 |
| 07.08.26 | HOTU – Galactik rebels | HOTU | 1.57 | 18 | won | +10 | 220 |
| 06.08.26 | paiN Academy – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.84 | 18 | lost | -18 | 210 |
| 05.08.26 | Liquid – fnatic | fnatic | 1.53 | 18 | lost | -18 | 228 |
| 05.08.26 | 1win – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.65 | 19 | lost | -19 | 246 |
| 05.08.26 | NAVI Junior – MAYBE | MAYBE | 1.74 | 19 | lost | -19 | 264 |
| 04.08.26 | Grêmio – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.85 | 19 | lost | -19 | 283 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | Yawara | 1.88 | 19 | won | +17 | 303 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 19 | won | +13 | 286 |
| 03.08.26 | Johnny Speeds – Metizport | Metizport | 1.85 | 19 | lost | -19 | 273 |
| 03.08.26 | Isurus – ODDIK Academy | Isurus | 1.66 | 19 | won | +13 | 292 |
| 03.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Misa | Misa | 1.85 | 19 | lost | -19 | 280 |
| 03.08.26 | Mindfreak – FURY | FURY | 1.82 | 19 | won | +16 | 299 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | Voca | 1.81 | 19 | lost | -19 | 284 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.79 | 20 | lost | -20 | 303 |
| 02.08.26 | GenOne – CYBERSHOKE | GenOne | 1.59 | 20 | won | +12 | 323 |
| 02.08.26 | Mai Tai – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.48 | 19 | won | +9 | 311 |
| 02.08.26 | 9INE – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.48 | 19 | won | +9 | 302 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Just Players | Just Players | 1.77 | 20 | lost | -20 | 293 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.54 | 19 | won | +10 | 312 |
| 01.08.26 | JiJieHao – GenOne | GenOne | 1.47 | 19 | won | +9 | 302 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | RayRay | 1.79 | 20 | lost | -20 | 293 |
| 01.08.26 | LP – BESTIA | LP | 1.65 | 20 | lost | -20 | 312 |
| 31.07.26 | CYBERSHOKE – STATE | STATE | 1.75 | 13 | lost | -13 | 332 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.80 | 13 | won | +10 | 345 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | HOTU | 1.46 | 13 | lost | -13 | 335 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-RUSTEC – ex-MANA | ex-RUSTEC | 1.54 | 13 | won | +7 | 348 |
| 31.07.26 | INFINITE – SPARTA | INFINITE | 1.67 | 13 | lost | -13 | 341 |
| 31.07.26 | regain – Chicken Coop | Chicken Coop | 1.64 | 13 | lost | -13 | 354 |
| 30.07.26 | aimclub – Spirit Academy | aimclub | 1.83 | 13 | won | +11 | 368 |
| 30.07.26 | Just Players – Inner Circle Academy | Just Players | 1.64 | 13 | won | +8 | 357 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.