Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-616u
ROI
-5.3%
win rate
55%
bets
251
drawdown
82.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-17u
period 3top-up-4u
period 2top-up-236u
period 1top-up-359u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 251 | 55% | +386 | +5.8% | 31% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 251 | 55% | -99 | -3.9% | 15.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -104 | -4.2% | 16.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -219 | -4.5% | 32.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -616 | -5.3% | 82.3% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 251 | 55% | -1380 | -6.6% | 164.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 251, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 47 | won | +37 | 384 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 50 | lost | -50 | 347 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 52 | lost | -52 | 396 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 51 | won | +35 | 449 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.75 | 49 | won | +36 | 414 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | mellren | 1.68 | 47 | won | +32 | 377 |
| 16.08.26 | eternal premium – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.76 | 45 | won | +35 | 345 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.80 | 44 | won | +35 | 310 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | Vexar | 1.65 | 42 | won | +28 | 276 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 41 | won | +23 | 248 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.89 | 43 | lost | -43 | 225 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 46 | lost | -46 | 268 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Lavked | SINQU | 1.69 | 48 | lost | -48 | 314 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | Arch | 1.57 | 51 | lost | -51 | 362 |
| 13.08.26 | Subtop De France – Vexar | Vexar | 1.56 | 49 | won | +28 | 413 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 52 | lost | -52 | 385 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 55 | lost | -55 | 437 |
| 12.08.26 | BIG – Aurora | BIG | 1.88 | 52 | won | +46 | 491 |
| 09.08.26 | Sashi – BIG | Sashi | 1.69 | 55 | lost | -55 | 445 |
| 09.08.26 | FOKUS – Acend | Acend | 1.87 | 53 | won | +46 | 500 |
| 09.08.26 | Echo – GenOne | GenOne | 1.62 | 51 | won | +31 | 454 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | DENDELE | 1.80 | 54 | lost | -54 | 423 |
| 08.08.26 | Jam – UNiTY | Jam | 1.61 | 52 | won | +32 | 477 |
| 08.08.26 | Fluxo – DUSTY | Fluxo | 1.63 | 51 | won | +32 | 445 |
| 08.08.26 | Black Phoenix – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 1.87 | 48 | won | +42 | 413 |
| 08.08.26 | Dark Tigre – MANGANESE | Dark Tigre | 1.88 | 46 | won | +41 | 370 |
| 08.08.26 | Liquid – Metizport | Liquid | 1.80 | 45 | won | +36 | 329 |
| 07.08.26 | Citron – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.65 | 43 | won | +28 | 294 |
| 07.08.26 | INFINITE – Aogiri | INFINITE | 1.75 | 42 | won | +31 | 266 |
| 07.08.26 | ex-GUARA – MEIA NOITE | ex-GUARA | 1.88 | 44 | lost | -44 | 235 |
| 05.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.85 | 42 | won | +36 | 278 |
| 05.08.26 | UNO MILLE – ODDIK Academy | UNO MILLE | 1.83 | 40 | won | +33 | 243 |
| 05.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – los kogutos | CYBERSHOKE | 1.67 | 39 | won | +26 | 209 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 41 | lost | -41 | 183 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.54 | 43 | lost | -43 | 224 |
| 04.08.26 | Acend – Betclic | Acend | 1.67 | 46 | lost | -46 | 267 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | Yawara | 1.88 | 44 | won | +38 | 313 |
| 03.08.26 | Imperial – Procyon | Imperial | 1.49 | 43 | won | +21 | 275 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.79 | 45 | lost | -45 | 254 |
| 03.08.26 | SPARTA – ex-Young Ninjas | ex-Young Ninjas | 1.80 | 47 | lost | -47 | 299 |
| 03.08.26 | Noir Verse – Fortress | Fortress | 1.88 | 50 | lost | -50 | 346 |
| 03.08.26 | Rooster – Finishers | Rooster | 1.74 | 48 | won | +36 | 396 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.80 | 50 | lost | -50 | 360 |
| 02.08.26 | Sashi – SINNERS | Sashi | 1.58 | 49 | won | +28 | 411 |
| 02.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 47 | won | +39 | 382 |
| 02.08.26 | 9INE – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.50 | 46 | won | +23 | 343 |
| 01.08.26 | ENCE – BC.Game | ENCE | 1.84 | 48 | lost | -48 | 320 |
| 01.08.26 | Just Players – Sashi | Just Players | 1.60 | 51 | lost | -51 | 369 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – atputies | Liquid | 1.78 | 49 | won | +38 | 419 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.71 | 52 | lost | -52 | 381 |
| 01.08.26 | ENCE – HAVU | ENCE | 1.64 | 50 | won | +32 | 433 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – ROUNDS | HAVU | 1.89 | 48 | won | +42 | 401 |
| 31.07.26 | paiN – Astralis | paiN | 1.86 | 50 | lost | -50 | 359 |
| 31.07.26 | INOX Division – Falcons Force | INOX Division | 1.39 | 49 | won | +19 | 409 |
| 31.07.26 | SINNERS – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 1.43 | 52 | lost | -52 | 390 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.79 | 50 | won | +39 | 441 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.68 | 52 | lost | -52 | 402 |
| 31.07.26 | BESTIA – Galorys | Galorys | 1.85 | 55 | lost | -55 | 455 |
| 30.07.26 | aimclub – Spirit Academy | aimclub | 1.83 | 53 | won | +44 | 510 |
| 30.07.26 | GenOne – ex-RUSTEC | GenOne | 1.62 | 51 | won | +32 | 466 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.