Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-184u
ROI
-7.4%
win rate
53%
bets
249
drawdown
20.2%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-90u
period 3top-up-10u
period 2top-up-86u
period 1profit withdrawn+2u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 249 | 53% | +493 | +8.6% | 12.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 53% | -184 | -7.4% | 20.2% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 53% | -185 | -7.7% | 20.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 53% | -374 | -8% | 39.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 53% | -945 | -8.9% | 97% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 53% | -1864 | -10.6% | 185.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 816 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 808 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | 818 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 828 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 821 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 10 | won | +4 | 831 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 826 |
| 15.08.26 | INOX Division – Misa | INOX Division | 1.45 | 10 | won | +5 | 820 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 815 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 10 | lost | -10 | 825 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – BAKS | BAKS | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 835 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | The Last Resort | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 827 |
| 14.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 837 |
| 13.08.26 | Legacy – FaZe | FaZe | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 847 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 839 |
| 12.08.26 | Vexar – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 849 |
| 10.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Ground Zero | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 840 |
| 09.08.26 | 100 Thieves – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 833 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | fnatic | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 843 |
| 09.08.26 | UNiTY – Nexus | Nexus | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 838 |
| 09.08.26 | Eternal Fire – BIG | Eternal Fire | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 848 |
| 09.08.26 | Prestige – Betclic | Betclic | 1.66 | 10 | won | +7 | 858 |
| 08.08.26 | Fluxo – DUSTY | Fluxo | 1.63 | 10 | won | +6 | 851 |
| 08.08.26 | Dark Tigre – SINNERS | Dark Tigre | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 845 |
| 08.08.26 | Partizan – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 855 |
| 07.08.26 | Vael – OG | OG | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 865 |
| 07.08.26 | HOTU – GenOne | GenOne | 1.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 856 |
| 07.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | Iberian Soul | 1.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 866 |
| 06.08.26 | 1win – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 876 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | Jam | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 869 |
| 06.08.26 | Time Waves – Arcade | Time Waves | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 861 |
| 05.08.26 | BESTIA – METANOIA Wolves | BESTIA | 1.37 | 10 | won | +4 | 871 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | Galorys | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 867 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Leo | Leo | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 859 |
| 04.08.26 | Nemiga – GenOne | GenOne | 1.40 | 10 | won | +4 | 869 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 865 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Phantom | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 875 |
| 03.08.26 | Imperial – Procyon | Imperial | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 885 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.37 | 10 | won | +4 | 880 |
| 03.08.26 | Isurus – ODDIK Academy | Isurus | 1.63 | 10 | won | +6 | 876 |
| 03.08.26 | WW – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 870 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | Voca | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 862 |
| 02.08.26 | Young TigeRES – Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 872 |
| 02.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-MANA | Inner Circle Academy | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 864 |
| 02.08.26 | Sashi – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 874 |
| 01.08.26 | Fluxo – BESTIA | Fluxo | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 884 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – Betclic | Betclic | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 894 |
| 01.08.26 | BC.Game – SINQU | BC.Game | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 904 |
| 01.08.26 | los kogutos – NEW VISION | los kogutos | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 895 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 886 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | ALTAY | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 896 |
| 31.07.26 | EAC – HOTU | HOTU | 1.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 906 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | mellren | 1.65 | 10 | won | +7 | 916 |
| 31.07.26 | Lavked – megoshort | Lavked | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 909 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 919 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 911 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | HOTU | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | 904 |
| 30.07.26 | SINQU – BOJONG | SINQU | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 899 |
| 30.07.26 | Virtus.pro – BAKS | Virtus.pro | 1.55 | 10 | won | +6 | 891 |
| 30.07.26 | SPARTA – Just Players | Just Players | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 885 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.