Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-1658u
ROI
-28.8%
win rate
50%
bets
132
drawdown
159.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3top-up-1000u
period 2top-up-568u
period 1top-up-90u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -280 | -11.7% | 35.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 51% | -284 | -11.4% | 36.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -551 | -12.1% | 67.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -1302 | -13.1% | 143.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 132 | 50% | -1658 | -28.8% | 159.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -2320 | -14.8% | 221.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 132, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.07.26 | PARIVISION – Alliance | Alliance | 1.48 | 360 | lost | -360 | -658 |
| 01.07.26 | 3DMAX – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.65 | 640 | lost | -640 | -298 |
| 30.06.26 | Festina Lente – raisedbypixels | Festina Lente | 1.76 | 320 | lost | -320 | 342 |
| 29.06.26 | Entropy – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 1.71 | 160 | lost | -160 | 662 |
| 29.06.26 | UNO MILLE – ShindeN | UNO MILLE | 1.83 | 80 | lost | -80 | 822 |
| 27.06.26 | Bounty Hunters – UNO MILLE | Bounty Hunters | 1.76 | 40 | lost | -40 | 902 |
| 26.06.26 | roamsfiest – train launcher | roamsfiest | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 942 |
| 26.06.26 | Walczaki – Inner Circle | Walczaki | 1.70 | 10 | lost | -10 | 962 |
| 26.06.26 | Fortress – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 972 |
| 25.06.26 | Sashi – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 1.84 | 10 | won | +8 | 964 |
| 25.06.26 | Inner Circle – 9INE | Inner Circle | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 956 |
| 25.06.26 | Game Point – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 947 |
| 25.06.26 | Rune Eaters – NOVAQ | NOVAQ | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 939 |
| 24.06.26 | train launcher – Venom | train launcher | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 931 |
| 24.06.26 | Betclic – OG | OG | 1.66 | 10 | lost | -10 | 913 |
| 21.06.26 | Virtus.pro – ex-RUBY | ex-RUBY | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 923 |
| 21.06.26 | Chicken Coop – Overtake Sector | Chicken Coop | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | 915 |
| 20.06.26 | 1win – Virtus.pro | Virtus.pro | 1.63 | 10 | won | +6 | 910 |
| 18.06.26 | 9z – FURIA | FURIA | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 903 |
| 18.06.26 | FOKUS – Noir Verse | FOKUS | 1.71 | 40 | won | +29 | 895 |
| 16.06.26 | Gentle Mates – Nuclear TigeRES | Gentle Mates | 1.85 | 20 | lost | -20 | 866 |
| 16.06.26 | Ground Zero – Rooster | Rooster | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 886 |
| 15.06.26 | Natus Vincere – G2 | G2 | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 896 |
| 15.06.26 | Virtus.pro – brazylijski luz | Virtus.pro | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 887 |
| 15.06.26 | 100 Thieves – Betclic | 100 Thieves | 1.69 | 320 | won | +220 | 880 |
| 15.06.26 | Club 333 – Olympus | Olympus | 1.67 | 160 | lost | -160 | 659 |
| 14.06.26 | ex-RUBY – INOX Division | ex-RUBY | 1.68 | 80 | lost | -80 | 819 |
| 14.06.26 | K27 – Walczaki | Walczaki | 1.80 | 40 | lost | -40 | 899 |
| 13.06.26 | MASQ – Washed | MASQ | 1.83 | 20 | lost | -20 | 939 |
| 13.06.26 | RUSTEC – HEROIC Academy | HEROIC Academy | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 959 |
| 13.06.26 | Natus Vincere – The MongolZ | Natus Vincere | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 969 |
| 13.06.26 | Sashi Academy – Washed | Washed | 1.88 | 20 | won | +18 | 961 |
| 13.06.26 | struggletony – MASONIC | struggletony | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 944 |
| 12.06.26 | MASONIC – MASQ | MASQ | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 954 |
| 12.06.26 | Washed – STATE | STATE | 1.77 | 80 | won | +61 | 945 |
| 12.06.26 | The MongolZ – B8 | B8 | 1.62 | 40 | lost | -40 | 884 |
| 11.06.26 | Vitality – FUT | FUT | 1.75 | 20 | lost | -20 | 924 |
| 11.06.26 | AM – CYBERSHOKE | AM | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 944 |
| 11.06.26 | DXA – Masked Regime | DXA | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 954 |
| 10.06.26 | illwill – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 945 |
| 10.06.26 | NEW VISION – XI | XI | 1.76 | 80 | won | +61 | 939 |
| 10.06.26 | B8 Academy – DONSTU | B8 Academy | 1.84 | 40 | lost | -40 | 879 |
| 10.06.26 | Walczaki – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.64 | 20 | lost | -20 | 919 |
| 10.06.26 | aAa – RUSTEC | RUSTEC | 1.66 | 10 | lost | -10 | 939 |
| 09.06.26 | Legacy – TYLOO | Legacy | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 949 |
| 08.06.26 | The Last Resort – GenOne | GenOne | 1.72 | 20 | won | +14 | 941 |
| 07.06.26 | G2 – FUT | G2 | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 926 |
| 07.06.26 | B8 – GamerLegion | B8 | 1.87 | 160 | won | +139 | 936 |
| 07.06.26 | Monte – Legacy | Legacy | 1.71 | 80 | lost | -80 | 797 |
| 06.06.26 | OLDBOYS PL – bankaPEPSI | bankaPEPSI | 1.82 | 40 | lost | -40 | 877 |
| 06.06.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 1.81 | 20 | lost | -20 | 917 |
| 06.06.26 | G2 – M80 | M80 | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 937 |
| 06.06.26 | RUSTEC – Young Ninjas | Young Ninjas | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 947 |
| 05.06.26 | ENRAGE – ROUNDS | ROUNDS | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 939 |
| 05.06.26 | Liquid – FlyQuest | FlyQuest | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 931 |
| 04.06.26 | GamerLegion – BIG | GamerLegion | 1.73 | 20 | won | +15 | 923 |
| 04.06.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Acend | Acend | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 909 |
| 03.06.26 | Sharks – Lynn Vision | Lynn Vision | 1.79 | 40 | won | +32 | 919 |
| 03.06.26 | 1win – Lavked | Lavked | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 887 |
| 03.06.26 | AM – ex-RUBY | ex-RUBY | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 907 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.