Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-1110u
ROI
-5.8%
win rate
55%
bets
249
drawdown
109.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-306u
period 3top-up-621u
period 2top-up-736u
period 1profit withdrawn+553u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 249 | 55% | +362 | +5.9% | 23% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -124 | -5.1% | 20.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 55% | -126 | -5.1% | 20.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -245 | -5.2% | 37% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -589 | -5.4% | 73.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -1110 | -5.8% | 109.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 77 | lost | -77 | -110 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 75 | won | +22 | -33 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 69 | won | +55 | -55 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 66 | won | +35 | -110 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 63 | won | +28 | -145 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 70 | lost | -70 | -173 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 78 | lost | -78 | -103 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 73 | won | +44 | -25 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-MANA – Misa | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 82 | lost | -82 | -70 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 91 | lost | -91 | 12 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 101 | lost | -101 | 103 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 112 | lost | -112 | 203 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 104 | won | +76 | 315 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora – M80 | Aurora | 1.68 | 98 | won | +67 | 239 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 108 | lost | -108 | 172 |
| 12.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – SAW Youngsters | ex-RUSTEC | 1.63 | 102 | won | +64 | 281 |
| 09.08.26 | UNO MILLE – paiN Academy | UNO MILLE | 1.76 | 113 | lost | -113 | 216 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 105 | won | +86 | 330 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 1.77 | 116 | lost | -116 | 244 |
| 09.08.26 | K27 – SAW | K27 | 1.88 | 107 | won | +94 | 361 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | fnatic | 1.69 | 100 | won | +70 | 267 |
| 08.08.26 | LPH – Nexus | LPH | 1.81 | 111 | lost | -111 | 197 |
| 08.08.26 | INFINITE – Giant Pandas | INFINITE | 1.76 | 103 | won | +78 | 308 |
| 08.08.26 | 100 Thieves – NADE | 100 Thieves | 1.75 | 96 | won | +72 | 230 |
| 08.08.26 | Partizan – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 1.88 | 107 | lost | -107 | 158 |
| 07.08.26 | Prestige – Metizport | Prestige | 1.87 | 119 | lost | -119 | 265 |
| 07.08.26 | Walczaki – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.73 | 111 | won | +81 | 384 |
| 07.08.26 | FKOMAR – fnatic | fnatic | 1.51 | 105 | won | +53 | 303 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.65 | 99 | won | +64 | 250 |
| 06.08.26 | Lavked – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.57 | 94 | won | +54 | 186 |
| 06.08.26 | Imperial – ALKA | Imperial | 1.69 | 88 | won | +60 | 132 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.69 | 82 | won | +57 | 72 |
| 04.08.26 | fnatic – EAC | fnatic | 1.47 | 78 | won | +37 | 15 |
| 04.08.26 | Just Players – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.72 | 87 | lost | -87 | -22 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Phantom | 1.83 | 97 | lost | -97 | 65 |
| 04.08.26 | Finishers – Mindfreak | Finishers | 1.82 | 107 | lost | -107 | 162 |
| 04.08.26 | G2 Ares – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 1.82 | 99 | won | +81 | 269 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.37 | 96 | won | +36 | 188 |
| 03.08.26 | Isurus – ODDIK Academy | Isurus | 1.63 | 90 | won | +57 | 152 |
| 03.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Misa | Misa | 1.88 | 100 | lost | -100 | 95 |
| 02.08.26 | ShindeN – BESTIA | BESTIA | 1.80 | 92 | won | +74 | 195 |
| 02.08.26 | Leo – ex-MANA | Leo | 1.43 | 103 | lost | -103 | 121 |
| 02.08.26 | Mai Tai – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.48 | 98 | won | +47 | 224 |
| 02.08.26 | los kogutos – Noir Verse | los kogutos | 1.87 | 90 | won | +78 | 176 |
| 01.08.26 | Fluxo – BESTIA | Fluxo | 1.74 | 100 | lost | -100 | 98 |
| 01.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – megoshort | CYBERSHOKE | 1.55 | 95 | won | +52 | 198 |
| 01.08.26 | los kogutos – NEW VISION | los kogutos | 1.88 | 87 | won | +77 | 146 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – ZWAW | Trouble makers | 1.77 | 81 | won | +62 | 69 |
| 01.08.26 | Betclic – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.62 | 90 | lost | -90 | 6 |
| 01.08.26 | LP – BESTIA | LP | 1.67 | 100 | lost | -100 | 96 |
| 31.07.26 | Spirit Academy – sleepers | sleepers | 1.78 | 42 | lost | -42 | 196 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Vexar | Vexar | 1.86 | 47 | lost | -47 | 239 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-Young Ninjas – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Young Ninjas | 1.79 | 43 | won | +34 | 285 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | HOTU | 1.46 | 48 | lost | -48 | 251 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.79 | 45 | won | +35 | 299 |
| 31.07.26 | INFINITE – SPARTA | INFINITE | 1.67 | 50 | lost | -50 | 264 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-RUBY – Lavked | ex-RUBY | 1.40 | 48 | won | +19 | 314 |
| 30.07.26 | JiJieHao – Entropy | JiJieHao | 1.88 | 44 | won | +39 | 295 |
| 30.07.26 | WW – TDK | TDK | 1.44 | 49 | lost | -49 | 256 |
| 30.07.26 | Butterfly – Atreides | Butterfly | 1.63 | 46 | won | +29 | 305 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.