Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-551u
ROI
-12.1%
win rate
51%
bets
249
drawdown
67.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-59u
period 3top-up-248u
period 2top-up-152u
period 1top-up-91u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -280 | -11.7% | 35.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 51% | -284 | -11.4% | 36.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -551 | -12.1% | 67.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -1302 | -13.1% | 143.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 132 | 50% | -1658 | -28.8% | 159.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -2320 | -14.8% | 221.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 19 | lost | -19 | 449 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 19 | won | +13 | 468 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 19 | won | +5 | 455 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.78 | 19 | won | +14 | 449 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | ENCE | 1.82 | 18 | won | +15 | 435 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 18 | won | +15 | 420 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 18 | won | +14 | 405 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 17 | won | +14 | 391 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 18 | lost | -18 | 377 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.88 | 18 | lost | -18 | 395 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | INOX Division | 1.46 | 18 | won | +8 | 413 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 18 | won | +15 | 405 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 17 | won | +9 | 390 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 17 | won | +9 | 380 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 18 | lost | -18 | 371 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.77 | 17 | won | +13 | 389 |
| 10.08.26 | Rooster – Abyssal | Rooster | 1.58 | 18 | lost | -18 | 375 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | fnatic | 1.54 | 18 | won | +9 | 393 |
| 09.08.26 | DEPO – Game Point | DEPO | 1.63 | 17 | won | +11 | 384 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | LFO 7 | 1.89 | 17 | won | +15 | 373 |
| 09.08.26 | BC.Game – OG | BC.Game | 1.67 | 17 | won | +11 | 358 |
| 09.08.26 | NRG – Phantom | NRG | 1.80 | 17 | lost | -17 | 346 |
| 08.08.26 | 1win – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.86 | 17 | lost | -17 | 363 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.60 | 17 | won | +10 | 381 |
| 08.08.26 | FOKUS – Sashi | Sashi | 1.71 | 18 | lost | -18 | 370 |
| 07.08.26 | MANGANESE – SINNERS | MANGANESE | 1.70 | 18 | lost | -18 | 388 |
| 07.08.26 | NIO – Kreazion | NIO | 1.88 | 18 | lost | -18 | 406 |
| 07.08.26 | DUSTY – Fluxo | Fluxo | 1.61 | 18 | won | +11 | 424 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | Jam | 1.77 | 18 | won | +14 | 413 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.68 | 18 | lost | -18 | 400 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.65 | 18 | won | +12 | 418 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | Galorys | 1.82 | 18 | won | +14 | 406 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-MANA – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 17 | won | +9 | 392 |
| 04.08.26 | fnatic – EAC | fnatic | 1.47 | 17 | won | +8 | 382 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 18 | lost | -18 | 374 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.54 | 18 | lost | -18 | 392 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Phantom | 1.79 | 18 | lost | -18 | 410 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 18 | won | +12 | 428 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.37 | 18 | won | +7 | 416 |
| 03.08.26 | ARCRED – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.75 | 18 | won | +13 | 409 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | Voca | 1.81 | 18 | lost | -18 | 396 |
| 03.08.26 | NRG – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.69 | 18 | lost | -18 | 414 |
| 02.08.26 | DragonClaw – Noir Verse | DragonClaw | 1.86 | 19 | lost | -19 | 433 |
| 02.08.26 | los kogutos – Noir Verse | los kogutos | 1.87 | 19 | won | +16 | 451 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | THE UNIT | 1.84 | 19 | lost | -19 | 435 |
| 01.08.26 | mellren – Spirit Academy | mellren | 1.67 | 19 | lost | -19 | 454 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.54 | 19 | won | +10 | 474 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.28 | 19 | lost | -19 | 463 |
| 01.08.26 | THE UNIT – Omega | Omega | 1.73 | 19 | won | +14 | 483 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | ALTAY | 1.74 | 20 | lost | -20 | 469 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | RayRay | 1.79 | 20 | lost | -20 | 488 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | mellren | 1.65 | 15 | won | +10 | 508 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | BC.Game | 1.88 | 15 | won | +13 | 499 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | Just Players | 1.64 | 14 | won | +9 | 486 |
| 31.07.26 | XCLAN – EAC | XCLAN | 1.77 | 15 | lost | -15 | 477 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | HOTU | 1.50 | 15 | won | +7 | 491 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 15 | lost | -15 | 484 |
| 30.07.26 | 3DMAX – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 15 | won | +8 | 499 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | BOJONG | 1.77 | 15 | lost | -15 | 491 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Black Phoenix | 1.80 | 15 | won | +12 | 506 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.