Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-245u
ROI
-2.3%
win rate
58%
bets
544
drawdown
42.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-137u
period 6top-up-82u
period 5top-up-198u
period 4profit withdrawn+188u
period 3top-up-116u
period 2profit withdrawn+23u
period 1profit withdrawn+78u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 544 | 58% | +686 | +5.4% | 34.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 544 | 58% | -115 | -2.1% | 23% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 544 | 58% | -119 | -2.2% | 23.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 544 | 58% | -245 | -2.3% | 42.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 544 | 58% | -654 | -2.4% | 82.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 544 | 58% | -1378 | -2.7% | 120.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 544, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | fnatic | 1.38 | 17 | won | +7 | 755 |
| 14.10.26 | GenOne – 6666 | GenOne | 1.55 | 17 | lost | -17 | 749 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 17 | won | +12 | 766 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | Liquid | 1.70 | 17 | won | +12 | 754 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.79 | 17 | won | +13 | 742 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Galorys | 1.48 | 17 | won | +8 | 729 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 17 | lost | -17 | 721 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.53 | 17 | lost | -17 | 738 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Just Players | 1.50 | 17 | won | +8 | 755 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | WBT Academy | 1.72 | 17 | lost | -17 | 747 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | Club 333 | 1.78 | 18 | lost | -18 | 764 |
| 10.10.26 | Galorys – Turma do Pagode | Turma do Pagode | 1.88 | 18 | lost | -18 | 782 |
| 09.10.26 | Acend – Nexus | Nexus | 1.78 | 18 | won | +14 | 800 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | mellren | 1.36 | 18 | lost | -18 | 786 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.40 | 19 | lost | -19 | 804 |
| 09.10.26 | Villainous – Reign Above | Reign Above | 1.65 | 19 | lost | -19 | 823 |
| 08.10.26 | FaZe – Sangal | Sangal | 1.49 | 19 | lost | -19 | 842 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 20 | lost | -20 | 861 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Misa | Misa | 1.54 | 20 | won | +11 | 881 |
| 08.10.26 | BERG – mellren | mellren | 1.32 | 19 | won | +6 | 871 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | The Last Resort | 1.42 | 20 | lost | -20 | 864 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.75 | 20 | lost | -20 | 884 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 1.50 | 20 | won | +10 | 905 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | RBLS | 1.55 | 20 | won | +11 | 895 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.56 | 20 | lost | -20 | 884 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Vexar | 1.31 | 21 | lost | -21 | 904 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Vexar | 1.61 | 21 | lost | -21 | 924 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Falcons Force | 1.71 | 21 | won | +15 | 946 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | G2 Ares | 1.50 | 21 | won | +10 | 931 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | G2 Ares | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 921 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | LPH | 1.60 | 21 | lost | -21 | 904 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.81 | 20 | won | +17 | 925 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | Spirit | 1.55 | 21 | lost | -21 | 908 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | FURIA | 1.59 | 20 | won | +12 | 929 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | Aurora | 1.61 | 20 | won | +12 | 917 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.55 | 20 | won | +11 | 904 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.30 | 20 | won | +6 | 893 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Johnny Speeds | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.62 | 20 | won | +12 | 888 |
| 02.10.26 | BC.Game – Sashi | BC.Game | 1.70 | 19 | won | +14 | 875 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | SportsBetExpert | 1.32 | 19 | won | +6 | 862 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | Bounty Hunters | 1.64 | 19 | won | +12 | 856 |
| 02.10.26 | HAVU – BBL | BBL | 1.52 | 19 | won | +10 | 844 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | Fire Flux | 1.68 | 19 | won | +13 | 834 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.37 | 19 | lost | -19 | 821 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | FaZe | 1.84 | 19 | lost | -19 | 840 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 1.54 | 19 | won | +10 | 859 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.24 | 19 | won | +5 | 849 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.45 | 19 | lost | -19 | 844 |
| 01.10.26 | HOTU – Nemesis | HOTU | 1.87 | 20 | lost | -20 | 864 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | SINQU | 1.84 | 20 | lost | -20 | 884 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | Mira | 1.60 | 20 | won | +12 | 904 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | mellren | 1.68 | 18 | won | +12 | 892 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.55 | 18 | lost | -18 | 880 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | WW | 1.63 | 19 | lost | -19 | 898 |
| 29.09.26 | DEPO – PAQT | DEPO | 1.57 | 19 | lost | -19 | 917 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Leo | 1.64 | 20 | lost | -20 | 936 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | Marsborne | 1.41 | 19 | won | +8 | 956 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.64 | 19 | won | +12 | 948 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Galorys | 1.43 | 20 | lost | -20 | 935 |
| 27.09.26 | Fluxo – SAW | Fluxo | 1.42 | 20 | lost | -20 | 955 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.