Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-1302u
ROI
-13.1%
win rate
51%
bets
249
drawdown
143.7%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-165u
period 3top-up-529u
period 2top-up-364u
period 1top-up-244u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -280 | -11.7% | 35.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 51% | -284 | -11.4% | 36.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -551 | -12.1% | 67.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -1302 | -13.1% | 143.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 132 | 50% | -1658 | -28.8% | 159.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -2320 | -14.8% | 221.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 44 | lost | -44 | -302 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 42 | won | +30 | -258 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 42 | won | +12 | -288 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.78 | 40 | won | +31 | -300 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | ENCE | 1.82 | 39 | won | +32 | -332 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 37 | won | +30 | -363 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 36 | won | +29 | -394 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 34 | won | +28 | -422 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 36 | lost | -36 | -450 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.88 | 38 | lost | -38 | -414 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | INOX Division | 1.46 | 37 | won | +17 | -376 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 36 | won | +31 | -393 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 35 | won | +19 | -423 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 34 | won | +18 | -442 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 36 | lost | -36 | -460 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.77 | 34 | won | +26 | -425 |
| 10.08.26 | Rooster – Abyssal | Rooster | 1.58 | 36 | lost | -36 | -451 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | fnatic | 1.54 | 35 | won | +19 | -415 |
| 09.08.26 | DEPO – Game Point | DEPO | 1.63 | 34 | won | +22 | -434 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | LFO 7 | 1.89 | 33 | won | +29 | -455 |
| 09.08.26 | BC.Game – OG | BC.Game | 1.67 | 32 | won | +21 | -484 |
| 09.08.26 | NRG – Phantom | NRG | 1.80 | 33 | lost | -33 | -505 |
| 08.08.26 | 1win – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.86 | 35 | lost | -35 | -472 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.60 | 34 | won | +20 | -437 |
| 08.08.26 | FOKUS – Sashi | Sashi | 1.71 | 36 | lost | -36 | -458 |
| 07.08.26 | MANGANESE – SINNERS | MANGANESE | 1.70 | 38 | lost | -38 | -422 |
| 07.08.26 | NIO – Kreazion | NIO | 1.88 | 40 | lost | -40 | -384 |
| 07.08.26 | DUSTY – Fluxo | Fluxo | 1.61 | 38 | won | +23 | -345 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | Jam | 1.77 | 37 | won | +28 | -368 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.68 | 39 | lost | -39 | -397 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.65 | 38 | won | +24 | -358 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | Galorys | 1.82 | 36 | won | +30 | -382 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-MANA – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 35 | won | +19 | -412 |
| 04.08.26 | fnatic – EAC | fnatic | 1.47 | 35 | won | +16 | -430 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 36 | lost | -36 | -447 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.54 | 38 | lost | -38 | -411 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Phantom | 1.79 | 40 | lost | -40 | -372 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 39 | won | +26 | -332 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.37 | 38 | won | +14 | -358 |
| 03.08.26 | ARCRED – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.75 | 37 | won | +28 | -373 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | Voca | 1.81 | 39 | lost | -39 | -400 |
| 03.08.26 | NRG – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.69 | 41 | lost | -41 | -361 |
| 02.08.26 | DragonClaw – Noir Verse | DragonClaw | 1.86 | 43 | lost | -43 | -321 |
| 02.08.26 | los kogutos – Noir Verse | los kogutos | 1.87 | 41 | won | +36 | -278 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | THE UNIT | 1.84 | 43 | lost | -43 | -313 |
| 01.08.26 | mellren – Spirit Academy | mellren | 1.67 | 46 | lost | -46 | -270 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.54 | 44 | won | +24 | -224 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.28 | 47 | lost | -47 | -248 |
| 01.08.26 | THE UNIT – Omega | Omega | 1.73 | 45 | won | +33 | -202 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | ALTAY | 1.74 | 48 | lost | -48 | -235 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | RayRay | 1.79 | 50 | lost | -50 | -187 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | mellren | 1.65 | 23 | won | +15 | -137 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | BC.Game | 1.88 | 22 | won | +19 | -152 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | Just Players | 1.64 | 21 | won | +14 | -171 |
| 31.07.26 | XCLAN – EAC | XCLAN | 1.77 | 22 | lost | -22 | -185 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | HOTU | 1.50 | 22 | won | +11 | -162 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 23 | lost | -23 | -173 |
| 30.07.26 | 3DMAX – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 22 | won | +12 | -150 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | BOJONG | 1.77 | 23 | lost | -23 | -163 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Black Phoenix | 1.80 | 23 | won | +18 | -139 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.