Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-306u
ROI
-5.1%
win rate
55%
bets
620
drawdown
33.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-36u
period 3top-up-86u
period 2profit withdrawn+36u
period 1top-up-221u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 620 | 55% | -306 | -5.1% | 33.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 620 | 55% | -317 | -5.1% | 35% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 620 | 55% | -595 | -5.1% | 64.1% | Select |
| Martingale | 93 | 44% | -1000 | -20.6% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 620 | 55% | -1377 | -5.3% | 143.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 620 | 55% | -2475 | -6% | 233.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 620, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 694 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 10 | lost | -10 | 686 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 696 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Bushido Wildcats | 1.57 | 10 | won | +5 | 688 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 9 | won | +5 | 682 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 10 | lost | -10 | 677 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 687 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 696 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – EAC | EAC | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 706 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 10 | lost | -10 | 699 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 709 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.67 | 10 | won | +7 | 704 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 698 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 707 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 717 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 727 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Permitta | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 737 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 732 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 742 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 735 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.75 | 10 | won | +8 | 745 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 738 |
| 18.08.26 | G2 Ares – Permitta | Permitta | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 730 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 10 | won | +5 | 721 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | mellren | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 716 |
| 17.08.26 | Raccoons – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 709 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 719 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 10 | won | +4 | 729 |
| 16.08.26 | eternal premium – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 725 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 717 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 711 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 10 | lost | -10 | 703 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | Vexar | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 713 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.66 | 10 | won | +6 | 706 |
| 15.08.26 | Lavked – OG | OG | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 700 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 710 |
| 15.08.26 | Privateer – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 10 | won | +7 | 702 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 10 | won | +5 | 694 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 689 |
| 15.08.26 | Wildcard – paiN | Wildcard | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 699 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 709 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Misa | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 719 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 711 |
| 14.08.26 | Lavked – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 721 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 731 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | INOX Division | 1.46 | 10 | won | +5 | 741 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – BAKS | BAKS | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 737 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Lavked | SINQU | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 729 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – Privateer | OG | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 739 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | Arch | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 730 |
| 14.08.26 | TYLOO – Lynn Vision | TYLOO | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 740 |
| 14.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.59 | 10 | won | +6 | 751 |
| 13.08.26 | Subtop De France – Vexar | Vexar | 1.56 | 10 | won | +6 | 745 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 739 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 10 | lost | -10 | 749 |
| 12.08.26 | los kogutos – BERG | BERG | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 759 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 770 |
| 12.08.26 | G2 – M80 | M80 | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 762 |
| 12.08.26 | BIG – Aurora | BIG | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 772 |
| 11.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 763 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.