Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-969u
ROI
-5.6%
win rate
52%
bets
582
drawdown
98%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-1000u
period 3top-up-433u
period 2top-up-2u
period 1profit withdrawn+466u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -463 | -8% | 52.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 52% | -531 | -8.6% | 58.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -815 | -7.4% | 85.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 582 | 52% | -969 | -5.6% | 98% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -1473 | -6.3% | 128.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -2076 | -5.6% | 149.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 582, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – SAW Youngsters | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.69 | 576 | lost | -576 | 31 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.80 | 320 | lost | -320 | 607 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-MANA – Misa | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 160 | lost | -160 | 927 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1087 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1167 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1207 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1227 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 160 | won | +136 | 1237 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1102 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1182 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1222 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1242 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – Privateer | OG | 1.86 | 20 | won | +17 | 1252 |
| 14.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1235 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 1245 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora – M80 | Aurora | 1.68 | 20 | won | +14 | 1237 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1224 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | FURIA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1234 |
| 12.08.26 | Natus Vincere – 3DMAX | Natus Vincere | 1.62 | 20 | won | +12 | 1226 |
| 12.08.26 | BetBoom – FaZe | BetBoom | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1214 |
| 12.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – SAW Youngsters | ex-RUSTEC | 1.63 | 20 | won | +13 | 1224 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1211 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | Bushido Wildcats | 1.47 | 10 | won | +5 | 1221 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.61 | 10 | won | +6 | 1216 |
| 10.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Ground Zero | 1.70 | 160 | won | +111 | 1210 |
| 09.08.26 | UNO MILLE – paiN Academy | UNO MILLE | 1.76 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1099 |
| 09.08.26 | Sashi – BIG | Sashi | 1.69 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1179 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – B8 Academy | LFO 7 | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1219 |
| 09.08.26 | 100 Thieves – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1239 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1249 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1232 |
| 09.08.26 | K27 – SAW | K27 | 1.88 | 20 | won | +18 | 1242 |
| 09.08.26 | Eternal Fire – BIG | Eternal Fire | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1225 |
| 09.08.26 | Echo – GenOne | GenOne | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 1235 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | fnatic | 1.69 | 20 | won | +14 | 1229 |
| 08.08.26 | LPH – Nexus | LPH | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1215 |
| 08.08.26 | GenOne – Galactik rebels | GenOne | 1.44 | 10 | won | +4 | 1225 |
| 08.08.26 | INFINITE – Giant Pandas | INFINITE | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1220 |
| 08.08.26 | GamersLab – LPH | LPH | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 1213 |
| 08.08.26 | Prestige – Metizport | Prestige | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 1206 |
| 08.08.26 | Eternal Fire – NADE | Eternal Fire | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 1197 |
| 08.08.26 | Butterfly – BET-M | Butterfly | 1.48 | 10 | won | +5 | 1190 |
| 08.08.26 | 100 Thieves – NADE | 100 Thieves | 1.75 | 80 | won | +60 | 1185 |
| 08.08.26 | EYEBALLERS – Phantom | Phantom | 1.59 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1125 |
| 08.08.26 | Partizan – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1165 |
| 08.08.26 | Vandulken – Spirit HU | Vandulken | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1185 |
| 08.08.26 | Liquid – Metizport | Liquid | 1.80 | 20 | won | +16 | 1195 |
| 08.08.26 | Passion Chicha – Vael | Passion Chicha | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1179 |
| 08.08.26 | K27 – SINNERS | K27 | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1189 |
| 07.08.26 | Spirit HU – NRG | NRG | 1.53 | 160 | won | +84 | 1182 |
| 07.08.26 | Prestige – Metizport | Prestige | 1.87 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1098 |
| 07.08.26 | UNiTY – eSuba | eSuba | 1.84 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1178 |
| 07.08.26 | NIO – Kreazion | NIO | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1218 |
| 07.08.26 | BIG – Fluxo | Fluxo | 1.62 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1238 |
| 07.08.26 | z to forward – DUSTY | DUSTY | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 1248 |
| 07.08.26 | Walczaki – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 1240 |
| 07.08.26 | Jam – LPH | Jam | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1232 |
| 07.08.26 | DUSTY – Fluxo | Fluxo | 1.61 | 20 | won | +12 | 1224 |
| 07.08.26 | BC.Game – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1212 |
| 07.08.26 | SAW – EAC | SAW | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1222 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.