Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-3054u
ROI
-6.8%
win rate
53%
bets
621
drawdown
212.6%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-606u
period 3top-up-730u
period 2top-up-751u
period 1top-up-967u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -440 | -7.4% | 50.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 621 | 53% | -459 | -7.4% | 52.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -843 | -7.5% | 95.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 70 | 40% | -1000 | -26.9% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -1869 | -7.4% | 205.8% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -3054 | -6.8% | 212.6% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 621, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 37 | won | +29 | -2054 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.57 | 35 | won | +20 | -2083 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | OG | 1.77 | 32 | won | +25 | -2103 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.84 | 30 | won | +25 | -2127 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.79 | 33 | lost | -33 | -2152 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 37 | lost | -37 | -2119 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.76 | 41 | lost | -41 | -2083 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 45 | lost | -45 | -2042 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 50 | lost | -50 | -1997 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.66 | 47 | won | +31 | -1947 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.75 | 44 | won | +33 | -1978 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 49 | lost | -49 | -2011 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 45 | won | +35 | -1962 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.78 | 42 | won | +33 | -1997 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.77 | 39 | won | +30 | -2030 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 36 | won | +29 | -2060 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.88 | 40 | lost | -40 | -2089 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 44 | lost | -44 | -2049 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 41 | won | +29 | -2005 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.73 | 39 | won | +28 | -2034 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 36 | won | +30 | -2062 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.80 | 33 | won | +26 | -2092 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | PCIFIC | 1.86 | 37 | lost | -37 | -2119 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | Enjoy | 1.46 | 41 | lost | -41 | -2082 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | Revise | 1.81 | 38 | won | +31 | -2041 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 35 | won | +22 | -2072 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | Vexar | 1.71 | 33 | won | +24 | -2094 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 31 | won | +25 | -2118 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.46 | 34 | lost | -34 | -2143 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Imperial | 1.63 | 32 | won | +20 | -2109 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.79 | 30 | won | +23 | -2129 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 28 | won | +20 | -2153 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 31 | lost | -31 | -2173 |
| 15.08.26 | Imperial – BESTIA | Imperial | 1.82 | 28 | won | +23 | -2142 |
| 15.08.26 | eternal premium – Revise | Revise | 1.76 | 26 | won | +20 | -2166 |
| 15.08.26 | EAC – ex-MANA | EAC | 1.82 | 24 | won | +20 | -2185 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 23 | won | +14 | -2205 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.80 | 25 | lost | -25 | -2219 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 24 | won | +13 | -2194 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 27 | lost | -27 | -2207 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.59 | 30 | lost | -30 | -2180 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.52 | 33 | lost | -33 | -2151 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 37 | lost | -37 | -2117 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 41 | lost | -41 | -2081 |
| 14.08.26 | Phantom Academy – Revise | Phantom Academy | 1.81 | 45 | lost | -45 | -2040 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.82 | 50 | lost | -50 | -1995 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | INOX Division | 1.46 | 48 | won | +22 | -1944 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – Misa | EAC | 1.75 | 45 | won | +34 | -1966 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 50 | lost | -50 | -2000 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | Arch | 1.57 | 55 | lost | -55 | -1950 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 53 | won | +28 | -1895 |
| 14.08.26 | TYLOO – Lynn Vision | TYLOO | 1.80 | 58 | lost | -58 | -1923 |
| 13.08.26 | Yawara – Keyd Stars | Yawara | 1.81 | 65 | lost | -65 | -1865 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 62 | won | +33 | -1800 |
| 13.08.26 | Just Players – MOUZ NXT | Just Players | 1.59 | 68 | lost | -68 | -1833 |
| 12.08.26 | MIBR – Astralis | MIBR | 1.69 | 76 | lost | -76 | -1765 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.76 | 71 | won | +54 | -1689 |
| 12.08.26 | magic – The MongolZ | magic | 1.70 | 78 | lost | -78 | -1743 |
| 12.08.26 | ROUNDS – Subtop De France | ROUNDS | 1.78 | 73 | won | +57 | -1664 |
| 11.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.63 | 81 | lost | -81 | -1721 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.