Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-844u
ROI
-7.5%
win rate
53%
bets
627
drawdown
87.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-174u
period 3top-up-529u
period 2top-up-0u
period 1top-up-141u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 627 | 53% | +127 | +0.7% | 53% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 627 | 53% | -457 | -7.7% | 48.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 627 | 53% | -499 | -8% | 52.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 627 | 53% | -844 | -7.5% | 87.5% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 627 | 53% | -1757 | -7.3% | 170.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 627 | 53% | -2850 | -7.7% | 249.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 627, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | The Last Resort | 1.65 | 16 | won | +11 | 156 |
| 20.08.26 | Ryvex – Coalesce | Ryvex | 1.89 | 16 | won | +14 | 145 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – Metizport | OG | 1.83 | 16 | lost | -16 | 131 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 17 | lost | -17 | 147 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 16 | won | +13 | 164 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 17 | lost | -17 | 151 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 17 | won | +9 | 168 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 17 | lost | -17 | 159 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.84 | 17 | won | +14 | 176 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.76 | 17 | lost | -17 | 162 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 17 | lost | -17 | 179 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 18 | lost | -18 | 196 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 18 | lost | -18 | 214 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 18 | lost | -18 | 232 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 19 | lost | -19 | 251 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 19 | won | +15 | 269 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 18 | won | +14 | 255 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.82 | 18 | won | +15 | 240 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.49 | 18 | won | +9 | 226 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.82 | 18 | lost | -18 | 217 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 18 | lost | -18 | 235 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 18 | won | +13 | 254 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 18 | won | +14 | 241 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 18 | lost | -18 | 227 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.78 | 18 | won | +14 | 245 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 18 | won | +9 | 231 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 18 | won | +8 | 221 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | Revise | 1.81 | 17 | won | +14 | 214 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 18 | lost | -18 | 200 |
| 17.08.26 | Raccoons – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.88 | 18 | lost | -18 | 217 |
| 17.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.65 | 18 | won | +12 | 236 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 18 | lost | -18 | 224 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 18 | won | +8 | 242 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.68 | 18 | won | +12 | 234 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.81 | 18 | lost | -18 | 222 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | BERG | 1.51 | 19 | lost | -19 | 240 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | 9z | 1.83 | 19 | lost | -19 | 259 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.65 | 19 | won | +12 | 278 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.55 | 19 | won | +10 | 266 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.84 | 19 | lost | -19 | 255 |
| 15.08.26 | Lavked – OG | OG | 1.74 | 19 | lost | -19 | 274 |
| 15.08.26 | Privateer – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 19 | won | +15 | 294 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.60 | 19 | lost | -19 | 279 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 20 | lost | -20 | 298 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Misa | 1.74 | 19 | won | +14 | 318 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.52 | 20 | lost | -20 | 304 |
| 15.08.26 | BESTIA – ALKA | BESTIA | 1.75 | 20 | won | +15 | 324 |
| 14.08.26 | Lavked – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.56 | 20 | lost | -20 | 309 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 20 | lost | -20 | 329 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – BAKS | BAKS | 1.81 | 20 | won | +16 | 349 |
| 14.08.26 | Privateer – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.64 | 20 | won | +13 | 333 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.83 | 20 | lost | -20 | 321 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 21 | lost | -21 | 341 |
| 14.08.26 | FUT – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.60 | 21 | lost | -21 | 361 |
| 14.08.26 | TYLOO – Lynn Vision | TYLOO | 1.80 | 21 | lost | -21 | 383 |
| 14.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Bebop | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.81 | 21 | won | +17 | 404 |
| 14.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – ALKA | ALKA | 1.72 | 21 | won | +15 | 387 |
| 14.08.26 | Imperial – Isurus | Imperial | 1.73 | 21 | won | +15 | 372 |
| 13.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-RUSTEC | Bushido Wildcats | 1.73 | 20 | won | +15 | 357 |
| 13.08.26 | BERG – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 1.68 | 21 | lost | -21 | 342 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.