Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-282u
ROI
-4.6%
win rate
55%
bets
617
drawdown
30.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-143u
period 3profit withdrawn+65u
period 2top-up-87u
period 1top-up-117u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 617 | 55% | -282 | -4.8% | 30.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 617 | 55% | -282 | -4.6% | 30.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 617 | 55% | -560 | -5% | 59.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 36 | 42% | -1000 | -57.8% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 617 | 55% | -1352 | -5.5% | 139.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 617 | 55% | -2447 | -6.1% | 246.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 617, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | ENCE | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 718 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 710 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 702 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 10 | won | +5 | 712 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 10 | won | +6 | 707 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 10 | lost | -10 | 701 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 711 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 703 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | 713 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 723 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 733 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.67 | 10 | won | +7 | 728 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 722 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | 714 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Omega | 1.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 709 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 719 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 729 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | 721 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.75 | 10 | won | +8 | 731 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 724 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 734 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 725 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 718 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | Revise | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 710 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | mellren | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 702 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 695 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 705 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 10 | won | +4 | 715 |
| 16.08.26 | Astralis – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 711 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 721 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 10 | lost | -10 | 714 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Bushido Wildcats | 1.32 | 10 | won | +3 | 724 |
| 16.08.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – METANOIA Wolves | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.47 | 10 | won | +5 | 721 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | Spirit | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 716 |
| 15.08.26 | INOX Division – Misa | INOX Division | 1.45 | 10 | won | +5 | 709 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 705 |
| 15.08.26 | magic – 3DMAX | magic | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 697 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 691 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | Fire Flux | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 701 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 711 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 10 | won | +6 | 721 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 10 | lost | -10 | 715 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Misa | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 725 |
| 15.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 718 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – BAKS | BAKS | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 710 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | INOX Division | 1.46 | 10 | won | +5 | 702 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | The Last Resort | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 697 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 707 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 717 |
| 14.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 727 |
| 13.08.26 | Legacy – FaZe | FaZe | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 737 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 729 |
| 13.08.26 | Just Players – MOUZ NXT | Just Players | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 739 |
| 12.08.26 | Lynn Vision – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.59 | 10 | won | +6 | 749 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | FURIA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 743 |
| 12.08.26 | Vexar – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 736 |
| 12.08.26 | G2 – M80 | M80 | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 727 |
| 12.08.26 | Spirit – JiJieHao | Spirit | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 737 |
| 12.08.26 | BIG – Aurora | BIG | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 747 |
| 11.08.26 | Rooster – Mindfreak | Rooster | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 738 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.