Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-798u
ROI
-11.8%
win rate
48%
bets
178
drawdown
83.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+202u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -550 | -9.6% | 63.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 617 | 52% | -573 | -9.3% | 66.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 178 | 48% | -798 | -11.8% | 83.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -1054 | -9.9% | 116.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -2270 | -10.5% | 227.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -3415 | -10.4% | 302.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 178, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06.06.26 | B8 – M80 | B8 | 1.75 | 116 | lost | -116 | 202 |
| 06.06.26 | OLDBOYS PL – bankaPEPSI | bankaPEPSI | 1.82 | 320 | lost | -320 | 317 |
| 06.06.26 | Johnny Speeds – 100 Thieves | Johnny Speeds | 1.88 | 160 | lost | -160 | 637 |
| 06.06.26 | Astralis – 9z | Astralis | 1.81 | 80 | lost | -80 | 797 |
| 06.06.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 1.81 | 40 | lost | -40 | 877 |
| 06.06.26 | G2 – M80 | M80 | 1.75 | 20 | lost | -20 | 917 |
| 06.06.26 | 9z – FlyQuest | FlyQuest | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 937 |
| 06.06.26 | RUSTEC – Young Ninjas | Young Ninjas | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 947 |
| 06.06.26 | Betclic – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.69 | 80 | won | +55 | 939 |
| 05.06.26 | Lilmix – DragonClaw | DragonClaw | 1.72 | 40 | lost | -40 | 884 |
| 05.06.26 | XI – LFO 6 | LFO 6 | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 924 |
| 05.06.26 | 100 Thieves – Phantom | Phantom | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 944 |
| 05.06.26 | ENRAGE – ROUNDS | ROUNDS | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 954 |
| 05.06.26 | Liquid – FlyQuest | FlyQuest | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 946 |
| 04.06.26 | GamerLegion – BIG | GamerLegion | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 938 |
| 04.06.26 | 100 Thieves – Ursa | 100 Thieves | 1.84 | 10 | won | +8 | 931 |
| 04.06.26 | TYLOO – Sharks | TYLOO | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 923 |
| 04.06.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Acend | Acend | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 906 |
| 03.06.26 | Arch – Wingman | Arch | 1.89 | 40 | won | +35 | 916 |
| 03.06.26 | Gaimin Gladiators – HEROIC | Gaimin Gladiators | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 881 |
| 03.06.26 | Johnny Speeds – TNC | TNC | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 901 |
| 03.06.26 | Sharks – Lynn Vision | Lynn Vision | 1.79 | 40 | won | +32 | 911 |
| 03.06.26 | 1win – Lavked | Lavked | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 879 |
| 03.06.26 | AM – ex-RUBY | ex-RUBY | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 899 |
| 03.06.26 | Young Ninjas – Entropy | Young Ninjas | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 909 |
| 02.06.26 | BIG – Gaimin Gladiators | BIG | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 901 |
| 02.06.26 | DragonClaw – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.86 | 40 | won | +34 | 894 |
| 02.06.26 | MIBR – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.86 | 20 | lost | -20 | 859 |
| 02.06.26 | SINNERS – NRG | SINNERS | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | 879 |
| 02.06.26 | CYBERSHOKE Prospects – GenOne | GenOne | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 889 |
| 02.06.26 | B8 – TYLOO | B8 | 1.79 | 380 | won | +299 | 880 |
| 02.06.26 | MIBR – THUNDER dOWNUNDER | MIBR | 1.77 | 320 | lost | -320 | 582 |
| 02.06.26 | Rebels – ex-Zero Tenacity | Rebels | 1.63 | 160 | lost | -160 | 902 |
| 02.06.26 | DragonClaw – Misa | DragonClaw | 1.83 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1062 |
| 02.06.26 | M80 – Lynn Vision | Lynn Vision | 1.85 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1142 |
| 01.06.26 | Misa – Falcons Force | Misa | 1.59 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1182 |
| 31.05.26 | ENCE – cirahvi | cirahvi | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1202 |
| 31.05.26 | Rebels – HAVU | Rebels | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 1212 |
| 31.05.26 | Fluxo – Galorys | Galorys | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 1204 |
| 31.05.26 | WBT – ZOTIX | WBT | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1196 |
| 31.05.26 | Reign Above – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1187 |
| 31.05.26 | HEROIC Academy – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.66 | 10 | won | +7 | 1179 |
| 31.05.26 | FOKUS – Nemiga | FOKUS | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1173 |
| 31.05.26 | HOTU – Rune Eaters | HOTU | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 1165 |
| 31.05.26 | ENCE – Atreides | Atreides | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 1159 |
| 31.05.26 | TDK – OG | TDK | 1.88 | 80 | won | +70 | 1152 |
| 31.05.26 | Omega – Rune Eaters | Omega | 1.62 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1082 |
| 31.05.26 | TNC – Misa | TNC | 1.61 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1122 |
| 31.05.26 | Reign Above – F5 | F5 | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1142 |
| 30.05.26 | Galorys – LP | LP | 1.85 | 10 | won | +8 | 1152 |
| 30.05.26 | Wanted Goons – NineFly | Wanted Goons | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 1143 |
| 30.05.26 | F5 – makeSHIFT | F5 | 1.83 | 320 | won | +265 | 1134 |
| 30.05.26 | NXG – FRZ | NXG | 1.82 | 160 | lost | -160 | 869 |
| 30.05.26 | Yawara – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.88 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1029 |
| 30.05.26 | 100 Thieves – Nemesis | 100 Thieves | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1109 |
| 30.05.26 | Marsborne – LAG | LAG | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1149 |
| 30.05.26 | magic – Ninjas in Pyjamas | magic | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1169 |
| 30.05.26 | LAG – makeSHIFT | LAG | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1179 |
| 30.05.26 | brazylijski luz – Vexar | Vexar | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 1170 |
| 30.05.26 | DEPO – Omega | Omega | 1.74 | 20 | won | +15 | 1162 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.