Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-4519u
ROI
-5.6%
win rate
56%
bets
1373
drawdown
291.7%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-639u
period 6top-up-976u
period 5top-up-978u
period 4top-up-552u
period 3top-up-629u
period 2top-up-883u
period 1profit withdrawn+138u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 1373 | 56% | +1180 | +3.5% | 37.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -697 | -5.4% | 74.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1373 | 56% | -731 | -5.3% | 77.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -1329 | -5.5% | 129.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -2862 | -5.6% | 226.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -4519 | -5.6% | 291.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1373, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Banda Chuya – 6666 | 6666 | 1.49 | 34 | won | +17 | -3519 |
| 14.10.26 | Astralis – Sashi | Astralis | 1.55 | 33 | won | +18 | -3536 |
| 14.10.26 | GenOne – 6666 | GenOne | 1.55 | 36 | lost | -36 | -3554 |
| 13.10.26 | Grêmio – LOS NINOS | LOS NINOS | 1.78 | 34 | won | +26 | -3517 |
| 13.10.26 | GenOne – Butterfly | GenOne | 1.60 | 37 | lost | -37 | -3544 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 35 | won | +25 | -3506 |
| 13.10.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Illyrians | Bushido Wildcats | 1.76 | 39 | lost | -39 | -3531 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | 100 Thieves | 1.80 | 36 | won | +29 | -3492 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Sangal | 1.53 | 34 | won | +18 | -3521 |
| 12.10.26 | Enjoy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.82 | 32 | won | +26 | -3539 |
| 12.10.26 | Overtake Sector – regain | regain | 1.82 | 35 | lost | -35 | -3565 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Galorys | 1.48 | 33 | won | +16 | -3530 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 37 | lost | -37 | -3546 |
| 11.10.26 | antidaun – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.81 | 34 | won | +28 | -3509 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.53 | 38 | lost | -38 | -3536 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 35 | won | +29 | -3498 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | benched gods | 1.86 | 39 | lost | -39 | -3527 |
| 11.10.26 | ex-Keyd Stars – Yawara | Yawara | 1.82 | 44 | lost | -44 | -3488 |
| 10.10.26 | Without a Roof – Last Dance US | Without a Roof | 1.31 | 42 | won | +13 | -3444 |
| 10.10.26 | NRG – Unreal Nightmare | NRG | 1.52 | 40 | won | +21 | -3457 |
| 10.10.26 | Bebop – 6666 | 6666 | 1.72 | 38 | won | +27 | -3478 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Abyssal | 1.51 | 36 | won | +18 | -3505 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | WBT Academy | 1.72 | 40 | lost | -40 | -3523 |
| 10.10.26 | FlyQuest – madlikewizards | FlyQuest | 1.45 | 38 | won | +17 | -3484 |
| 10.10.26 | FarmVille – Wanted Goons | FarmVille | 1.47 | 42 | lost | -42 | -3501 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | Club 333 | 1.78 | 47 | lost | -47 | -3459 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | ALKA | 1.62 | 52 | lost | -52 | -3412 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Procyon | 1.73 | 49 | won | +35 | -3360 |
| 09.10.26 | Falcons – Spirit | Spirit | 1.60 | 46 | won | +28 | -3395 |
| 09.10.26 | Iberian Soul – Noir Verse | Iberian Soul | 1.84 | 42 | won | +35 | -3422 |
| 09.10.26 | FURIA – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.58 | 40 | won | +23 | -3458 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | Misa | 1.73 | 44 | lost | -44 | -3481 |
| 09.10.26 | The Huns – Alter Ego | Alter Ego | 1.77 | 41 | won | +32 | -3437 |
| 09.10.26 | GamerLegion – SINNERS | SINNERS | 1.63 | 46 | lost | -46 | -3469 |
| 09.10.26 | HOTU – Acend | HOTU | 1.45 | 44 | won | +20 | -3423 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | mellren | 1.36 | 49 | lost | -49 | -3443 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Black Phoenix | 1.75 | 45 | won | +34 | -3394 |
| 09.10.26 | Villainous – Reign Above | Reign Above | 1.65 | 50 | lost | -50 | -3428 |
| 09.10.26 | LP – Turma do Pagode | Turma do Pagode | 1.60 | 56 | lost | -56 | -3378 |
| 09.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – ALKA | Bounty Hunters | 1.82 | 52 | won | +42 | -3322 |
| 08.10.26 | INFINITE – G2 Ares | INFINITE | 1.79 | 57 | lost | -57 | -3364 |
| 08.10.26 | Saint Sinners – mellren | mellren | 1.50 | 64 | lost | -64 | -3307 |
| 08.10.26 | FaZe – Sangal | Sangal | 1.49 | 71 | lost | -71 | -3243 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 79 | lost | -79 | -3172 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Misa | Misa | 1.54 | 75 | won | +40 | -3093 |
| 08.10.26 | EAC – PURE | PURE | 1.70 | 70 | won | +49 | -3134 |
| 08.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.86 | 77 | lost | -77 | -3183 |
| 08.10.26 | bLight blue – BORING PLAYERS | BORING PLAYERS | 1.84 | 71 | won | +60 | -3105 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | The KnockoutX | 1.82 | 66 | won | +54 | -3165 |
| 08.10.26 | ENCE – LFO 10 | ENCE | 1.66 | 62 | won | +41 | -3220 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.50 | 59 | won | +30 | -3260 |
| 08.10.26 | OG – Sangal | Sangal | 1.63 | 56 | won | +35 | -3290 |
| 08.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.51 | 53 | won | +27 | -3325 |
| 08.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Color | Color | 1.77 | 59 | lost | -59 | -3352 |
| 08.10.26 | Villainous – FarmVille | FarmVille | 1.74 | 55 | won | +40 | -3293 |
| 08.10.26 | BESTIA Academy – ALKA | BESTIA Academy | 1.87 | 61 | lost | -61 | -3334 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.75 | 67 | lost | -67 | -3273 |
| 08.10.26 | Isurus – MEIA NOITE | Isurus | 1.73 | 63 | won | +46 | -3206 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | Sangal | 1.42 | 70 | lost | -70 | -3251 |
| 07.10.26 | Lazer Cats – NAVI Junior | Lazer Cats | 1.73 | 78 | lost | -78 | -3182 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.