Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-2076u
ROI
-5.6%
win rate
52%
bets
618
drawdown
149.6%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-793u
period 3top-up-991u
period 2top-up-853u
period 1profit withdrawn+561u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -463 | -8% | 52.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 52% | -531 | -8.6% | 58.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -815 | -7.4% | 85.4% | Selected |
| Martingale | 582 | 52% | -969 | -5.6% | 98% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -1473 | -6.3% | 128.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -2076 | -5.6% | 149.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1076 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1053 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1027 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 27 | won | +18 | -999 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 25 | won | +14 | -1017 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 23 | won | +19 | -1031 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1050 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 29 | lost | -29 | -1024 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 32 | lost | -32 | -995 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 36 | lost | -36 | -963 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 40 | lost | -40 | -927 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.86 | 44 | lost | -44 | -887 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 41 | won | +32 | -843 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 38 | won | +30 | -875 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 42 | lost | -42 | -905 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 39 | won | +28 | -863 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 38 | won | +11 | -891 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 35 | won | +30 | -902 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 32 | won | +26 | -932 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 30 | won | +21 | -958 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 34 | lost | -34 | -980 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 31 | won | +27 | -946 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 30 | won | +16 | -972 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 28 | won | +12 | -988 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 27 | won | +17 | -1000 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | Vexar | 1.71 | 25 | won | +18 | -1017 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 24 | won | +11 | -1035 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1045 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 29 | lost | -29 | -1019 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 27 | won | +20 | -990 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 30 | lost | -30 | -1010 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Lynn Vision | 1.84 | 34 | lost | -34 | -980 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.58 | 32 | won | +18 | -946 |
| 15.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Galorys | Galorys | 1.85 | 35 | lost | -35 | -964 |
| 15.08.26 | BAKS – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.88 | 33 | won | +29 | -929 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 31 | won | +19 | -957 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – SAW Youngsters | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.69 | 34 | lost | -34 | -976 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.80 | 38 | lost | -38 | -942 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-MANA – Misa | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 42 | lost | -42 | -904 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 47 | lost | -47 | -861 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 52 | lost | -52 | -815 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 58 | lost | -58 | -762 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 64 | lost | -64 | -705 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 59 | won | +50 | -640 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 66 | lost | -66 | -691 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 73 | lost | -73 | -625 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 81 | lost | -81 | -551 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 90 | lost | -90 | -470 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – Privateer | OG | 1.86 | 83 | won | +71 | -380 |
| 14.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.73 | 92 | lost | -92 | -451 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 86 | won | +63 | -359 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora – M80 | Aurora | 1.68 | 81 | won | +55 | -422 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 90 | lost | -90 | -477 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | FURIA | 1.76 | 83 | won | +63 | -387 |
| 12.08.26 | Natus Vincere – 3DMAX | Natus Vincere | 1.62 | 78 | won | +49 | -451 |
| 12.08.26 | BetBoom – FaZe | BetBoom | 1.80 | 87 | lost | -87 | -499 |
| 12.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – SAW Youngsters | ex-RUSTEC | 1.63 | 82 | won | +52 | -412 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.77 | 91 | lost | -91 | -464 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | Bushido Wildcats | 1.47 | 87 | won | +41 | -373 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.61 | 82 | won | +50 | -414 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.