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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1426u
ROI
-6%
win rate
56%
bets
1374
drawdown
138.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-216u
period 6top-up-429u
period 5top-up-459u
period 4top-up-46u
period 3top-up-111u
period 2top-up-233u
period 1profit withdrawn+68u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale116955%+86+0.3%51.1%Select
1% of bankroll137456%-752-5.9%80.1%Select
Flat (10 units)137456%-791-5.8%84.1%Select
2% of bankroll137456%-1426-6%138.8%Select
5% of bankroll137456%-3026-6.3%238.4%Select
10% of bankroll137456%-4669-6.5%299.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1374, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26fnatic – Sashifnatic1.3816won+6-426
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.4915won+8-432
14.10.26Astralis – SashiAstralis1.5515won+8-439
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.5516lost-16-447
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7815won+12-432
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6016lost-16-444
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7115won+11-428
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7616lost-16-439
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7016won+11-423
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.7915won+12-434
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8215won+12-446
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.8215lost-15-459
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.4815won+7-443
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.3515lost-15-451
11.10.26mellren – Lavkedmellren1.4715won+7-435
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.5316lost-16-442
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersNuclear TigeRES1.8115won+12-427
11.10.26Just Players – MisaJust Players1.5015won+8-439
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSProcyon1.7116lost-16-447
10.10.26Elusive – MarsborneMarsborne1.3515won+5-431
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USWildcard1.6915won+11-436
10.10.26Bebop – 666666661.7215won+11-447
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersWBT Academy1.7215lost-15-458
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakAbyssal1.5115won+8-443
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsFlyQuest1.4515won+7-450
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEClub 3331.7815lost-15-457
10.10.26Ground Zero – KZGGround Zero1.5615won+9-442
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS1.8015won+12-450
10.10.26Galorys – Turma do PagodeTurma do Pagode1.8815lost-15-462
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritSpirit1.6015won+9-447
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoLeo1.4815lost-15-456
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZMOUZ1.5815won+9-441
09.10.26Acend – NexusNexus1.7815won+12-449
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.6915won+10-461
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSSINNERS1.6315lost-15-471
09.10.26HOTU – AcendHOTU1.4515won+7-456
09.10.26mellren – Bebopmellren1.3615lost-15-463
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyEnjoy1.4016lost-16-448
09.10.26Villainous – Reign AboveReign Above1.6516lost-16-432
09.10.26LP – Turma do PagodeTurma do Pagode1.6016lost-16-416
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKABounty Hunters1.8216won+13-400
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresINFINITE1.7916lost-16-413
08.10.26FaZe – SangalSangal1.4917lost-17-397
08.10.26SINNERS – Black PhoenixBlack Phoenix1.8116won+13-380
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEBetclic1.7317lost-17-394
08.10.26megoshort – Fire FluxFire Flux1.4917won+8-377
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaMisa1.5416won+9-385
08.10.26BERG – mellrenmellren1.3216won+5-394
08.10.26bLight blue – BORING PLAYERSBORING PLAYERS1.8416won+13-399
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.8616lost-16-412
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerThe Last Resort1.4217lost-17-396
08.10.26Enjoy – 6666Enjoy1.5117lost-17-380
08.10.26G2 Ares – RBLSRBLS1.7517lost-17-363
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansIllyrians1.6617won+11-345
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorColor1.7717lost-17-357
08.10.26Wanted Goons – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.3917won+7-339
08.10.26Isurus – MEIA NOITEIsurus1.7317won+12-346
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKABESTIA Academy1.8717lost-17-358
08.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd StarsQUINTESSÊNCIA1.7518lost-18-341
07.10.26Famalicão – Lazer CatsLazer Cats1.5018won+9-323
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.