Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-2270u
ROI
-10.5%
win rate
52%
bets
617
drawdown
227.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-432u
period 3top-up-709u
period 2top-up-581u
period 1top-up-548u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -550 | -9.6% | 63.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 617 | 52% | -573 | -9.3% | 66.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 178 | 48% | -798 | -11.8% | 83.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -1054 | -9.9% | 116.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -2270 | -10.5% | 227.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 617 | 52% | -3415 | -10.4% | 302.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 617, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 30 | lost | -30 | -1270 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.56 | 29 | won | +16 | -1240 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 31 | lost | -31 | -1257 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 30 | won | +15 | -1226 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 31 | lost | -31 | -1241 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 33 | lost | -33 | -1210 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 35 | lost | -35 | -1177 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 33 | won | +27 | -1142 |
| 19.08.26 | Drip Too Hard – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.68 | 32 | won | +22 | -1169 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 31 | won | +23 | -1191 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.74 | 30 | won | +22 | -1214 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.67 | 29 | won | +20 | -1236 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 31 | lost | -31 | -1256 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 29 | won | +25 | -1225 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 28 | won | +23 | -1250 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 27 | won | +19 | -1273 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 29 | lost | -29 | -1293 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 28 | won | +8 | -1264 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 27 | won | +19 | -1272 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 29 | lost | -29 | -1291 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 28 | won | +22 | -1262 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.78 | 27 | won | +21 | -1284 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 26 | won | +22 | -1305 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 25 | won | +10 | -1327 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1337 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | ENCE | 1.82 | 25 | won | +21 | -1311 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | Permitta | 1.83 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1332 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 26 | won | +21 | -1305 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.80 | 25 | won | +20 | -1326 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 24 | won | +19 | -1346 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | WBT | 1.69 | 23 | won | +16 | -1365 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | FORZE Reload | 1.73 | 22 | won | +16 | -1381 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.66 | 21 | won | +14 | -1397 |
| 15.08.26 | eternal premium – Revise | Revise | 1.76 | 21 | won | +16 | -1411 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 20 | won | +16 | -1427 |
| 15.08.26 | magic – 3DMAX | magic | 1.54 | 19 | won | +10 | -1442 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | 9z | 1.73 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1453 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1433 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | Fire Flux | 1.79 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1411 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 24 | lost | -24 | -1389 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ENCE | ENCE | 1.68 | 25 | lost | -25 | -1365 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.88 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1340 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1314 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 26 | won | +22 | -1286 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | INOX Division | 1.46 | 26 | won | +12 | -1309 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1321 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 26 | won | +22 | -1293 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 1.71 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1316 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – ex-MANA | INOX Division | 1.48 | 27 | won | +13 | -1288 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 26 | won | +14 | -1301 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 25 | won | +14 | -1315 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.57 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1329 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1302 |
| 12.08.26 | Vitality – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.52 | 30 | lost | -30 | -1274 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 31 | lost | -31 | -1244 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.77 | 30 | won | +23 | -1213 |
| 12.08.26 | magic – The MongolZ | magic | 1.73 | 32 | lost | -32 | -1236 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.77 | 33 | lost | -33 | -1204 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | Bushido Wildcats | 1.47 | 33 | won | +15 | -1171 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.61 | 32 | won | +19 | -1186 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.