Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-3394u
ROI
-6.8%
win rate
56%
bets
1372
drawdown
285.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-380u
period 6top-up-624u
period 5top-up-733u
period 4top-up-592u
period 3top-up-507u
period 2top-up-591u
period 1profit withdrawn+33u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 1372 | 56% | -784 | -6.1% | 86.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1372 | 56% | -800 | -5.8% | 89% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1372 | 56% | -1526 | -6.3% | 155.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 585 | 55% | -1614 | -8.9% | 138.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1372 | 56% | -3394 | -6.8% | 285.8% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1372 | 56% | -5224 | -7.2% | 363.4% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1372, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Banda Chuya – 6666 | 6666 | 1.49 | 30 | won | +15 | -2394 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | Enjoy | 1.87 | 29 | won | +25 | -2409 |
| 13.10.26 | Grêmio – LOS NINOS | LOS NINOS | 1.78 | 28 | won | +22 | -2434 |
| 13.10.26 | GenOne – Butterfly | GenOne | 1.60 | 29 | lost | -29 | -2456 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 28 | won | +20 | -2426 |
| 13.10.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Illyrians | Bushido Wildcats | 1.76 | 30 | lost | -30 | -2446 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | 100 Thieves | 1.80 | 29 | won | +23 | -2417 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.79 | 28 | won | +22 | -2439 |
| 12.10.26 | Enjoy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.82 | 27 | won | +22 | -2461 |
| 12.10.26 | Overtake Sector – regain | regain | 1.82 | 28 | lost | -28 | -2483 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Galorys | 1.48 | 27 | won | +13 | -2455 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 29 | lost | -29 | -2468 |
| 11.10.26 | antidaun – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.81 | 28 | won | +22 | -2439 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 27 | won | +21 | -2462 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.53 | 28 | lost | -28 | -2483 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Just Players | 1.50 | 27 | won | +14 | -2455 |
| 11.10.26 | ex-Keyd Stars – Yawara | Yawara | 1.82 | 29 | lost | -29 | -2469 |
| 10.10.26 | Without a Roof – Last Dance US | Without a Roof | 1.31 | 28 | won | +9 | -2440 |
| 10.10.26 | Wildcard – Last Dance US | Wildcard | 1.69 | 27 | won | +19 | -2449 |
| 10.10.26 | Bebop – 6666 | 6666 | 1.72 | 26 | won | +19 | -2468 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Abyssal | 1.51 | 26 | won | +13 | -2487 |
| 10.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.53 | 25 | won | +13 | -2500 |
| 10.10.26 | FlyQuest – madlikewizards | FlyQuest | 1.45 | 24 | won | +11 | -2513 |
| 10.10.26 | Ground Zero – KZG | Ground Zero | 1.56 | 24 | won | +13 | -2524 |
| 10.10.26 | regain – Villainous | regain | 1.62 | 23 | won | +14 | -2538 |
| 10.10.26 | Galorys – Turma do Pagode | Turma do Pagode | 1.88 | 24 | lost | -24 | -2552 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.80 | 23 | won | +19 | -2528 |
| 09.10.26 | Falcons – Spirit | Spirit | 1.60 | 23 | won | +14 | -2546 |
| 09.10.26 | Iberian Soul – Noir Verse | Iberian Soul | 1.84 | 22 | won | +18 | -2560 |
| 09.10.26 | FURIA – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.58 | 21 | won | +12 | -2578 |
| 09.10.26 | WBT Academy – SAW Youngsters | WBT Academy | 1.53 | 22 | lost | -22 | -2591 |
| 09.10.26 | BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.69 | 22 | won | +15 | -2568 |
| 09.10.26 | GamerLegion – SINNERS | SINNERS | 1.63 | 23 | lost | -23 | -2583 |
| 09.10.26 | HOTU – Acend | HOTU | 1.45 | 22 | won | +10 | -2561 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.40 | 23 | lost | -23 | -2571 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | mellren | 1.36 | 25 | lost | -25 | -2547 |
| 09.10.26 | Club 333 – OverKnight | Club 333 | 1.86 | 24 | won | +20 | -2523 |
| 09.10.26 | Isurus – ex-Keyd Stars | Isurus | 1.85 | 25 | lost | -25 | -2543 |
| 09.10.26 | MEIA NOITE – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.67 | 26 | lost | -26 | -2518 |
| 08.10.26 | INFINITE – G2 Ares | INFINITE | 1.79 | 27 | lost | -27 | -2492 |
| 08.10.26 | MOUZ NXT – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.82 | 29 | lost | -29 | -2465 |
| 08.10.26 | Lilmix – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.23 | 29 | won | +6 | -2436 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 30 | lost | -30 | -2442 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Misa | Misa | 1.54 | 29 | won | +16 | -2412 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | CYBERSHOKE | 1.82 | 31 | lost | -31 | -2428 |
| 08.10.26 | Rare Atom – Just Swing | Rare Atom | 1.57 | 32 | lost | -32 | -2397 |
| 08.10.26 | Legion – Nas | Nas | 1.61 | 32 | won | +19 | -2365 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | The Last Resort | 1.42 | 33 | lost | -33 | -2384 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | The KnockoutX | 1.82 | 32 | won | +26 | -2351 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.50 | 31 | won | +16 | -2377 |
| 08.10.26 | G2 Ares – RBLS | RBLS | 1.75 | 33 | lost | -33 | -2392 |
| 08.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.51 | 32 | won | +16 | -2360 |
| 08.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Color | Color | 1.77 | 34 | lost | -34 | -2376 |
| 08.10.26 | Reign Above – Overtake Sector | Overtake Sector | 1.84 | 32 | won | +27 | -2343 |
| 08.10.26 | BESTIA Academy – ALKA | BESTIA Academy | 1.87 | 34 | lost | -34 | -2370 |
| 08.10.26 | Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROS | Turma do Pagode | 1.45 | 33 | won | +15 | -2336 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.75 | 35 | lost | -35 | -2351 |
| 07.10.26 | SAW – RBLS | SAW | 1.63 | 37 | lost | -37 | -2316 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – SAW | Sangal | 1.72 | 35 | won | +25 | -2279 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.56 | 37 | lost | -37 | -2305 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.