Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-3679u
ROI
-8.4%
win rate
54%
bets
1253
drawdown
346.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-950u
period 3top-up-983u
period 2top-up-759u
period 1top-up-987u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 901 | 53% | -495 | -1.9% | 74.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1253 | 54% | -739 | -6.6% | 75.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1253 | 54% | -792 | -6.3% | 80.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1253 | 54% | -1371 | -6.9% | 137.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1253 | 54% | -2706 | -7.6% | 264.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1253 | 54% | -3679 | -8.4% | 346.5% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1253, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Ryvex – Coalesce | Ryvex | 1.89 | 5 | won | +4 | -2679 |
| 20.08.26 | Leo – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.48 | 5 | lost | -5 | -2683 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 – FURIA | FURIA | 1.86 | 5 | won | +4 | -2678 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 5 | lost | -5 | -2682 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | OG | 1.77 | 5 | won | +4 | -2677 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Color | 1.85 | 5 | lost | -5 | -2681 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 6 | lost | -6 | -2675 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2669 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2663 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 7 | won | +5 | -2655 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Bushido Wildcats | 1.58 | 7 | won | +4 | -2660 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 6 | won | +3 | -2664 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2667 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 6 | won | +5 | -2660 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2665 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.76 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2658 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2650 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 8 | won | +6 | -2642 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2648 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2639 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | -2629 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.68 | 9 | won | +6 | -2633 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2639 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.78 | 9 | won | +7 | -2629 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 9 | won | +7 | -2637 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2643 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Permitta | 1.54 | 9 | won | +5 | -2634 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2639 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | -2629 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2636 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 10 | won | +7 | -2626 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | WBT | 1.36 | 9 | won | +3 | -2633 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.74 | 9 | won | +6 | -2637 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2643 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | EAC | 1.45 | 9 | won | +4 | -2633 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.77 | 8 | won | +7 | -2638 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.78 | 8 | won | +6 | -2644 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.77 | 7 | won | +6 | -2650 |
| 18.08.26 | G2 Ares – Permitta | Permitta | 1.88 | 7 | won | +6 | -2656 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 6 | won | +3 | -2662 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 6 | won | +3 | -2665 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | Enjoy | 1.46 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2668 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 7 | won | +3 | -2661 |
| 17.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.65 | 6 | won | +4 | -2664 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.74 | 6 | won | +4 | -2668 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | Permitta | 1.83 | 6 | lost | -6 | -2672 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 6 | won | +3 | -2666 |
| 17.08.26 | paiN Academy – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.67 | 6 | won | +4 | -2668 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.67 | 6 | lost | -6 | -2672 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.68 | 6 | won | +4 | -2666 |
| 16.08.26 | Astralis – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.85 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2670 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 6 | won | +5 | -2663 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | BERG | 1.51 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2668 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | INOX Division | 1.65 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2662 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.64 | 7 | won | +5 | -2654 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2659 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Bushido Wildcats | 1.32 | 8 | won | +2 | -2651 |
| 16.08.26 | The MongolZ – paiN | The MongolZ | 1.83 | 7 | won | +6 | -2653 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Lynn Vision | 1.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2659 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.55 | 7 | won | +4 | -2651 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.