Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-2339u
ROI
-6.3%
win rate
52%
bets
1260
drawdown
232.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-611u
period 3top-up-972u
period 2profit withdrawn+136u
period 1top-up-892u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 828 | 52% | -36 | -0.2% | 56.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1260 | 52% | -870 | -7.9% | 90.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1260 | 52% | -1079 | -8.6% | 112.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1260 | 52% | -1438 | -7.4% | 147.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1260 | 52% | -2339 | -6.3% | 232.8% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 1260 | 52% | -3177 | -6.4% | 314.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1260, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Nordic Valor – MAYBE | Nordic Valor | 1.76 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1339 |
| 20.08.26 | FORZE Reload – Younglings | Younglings | 1.87 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1319 |
| 20.08.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | The Last Resort | 1.65 | 21 | won | +14 | -1297 |
| 20.08.26 | Ryvex – Coalesce | Ryvex | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | -1311 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – Metizport | OG | 1.83 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1328 |
| 20.08.26 | SPARTA – Color | Color | 1.80 | 20 | won | +16 | -1307 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1324 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 20 | won | +16 | -1302 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1318 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.57 | 21 | won | +12 | -1297 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 20 | won | +11 | -1309 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1319 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.84 | 21 | won | +17 | -1298 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 20 | won | +13 | -1315 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Bushido Wildcats | 1.58 | 19 | won | +11 | -1329 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.58 | 19 | won | +11 | -1340 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1351 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.76 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1331 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.79 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1310 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1288 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 24 | lost | -24 | -1265 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1240 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.69 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1215 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1188 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 30 | lost | -30 | -1159 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.68 | 29 | won | +20 | -1129 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 31 | lost | -31 | -1149 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 29 | won | +23 | -1118 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 28 | won | +22 | -1142 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.82 | 27 | won | +22 | -1164 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.49 | 26 | won | +13 | -1186 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.82 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1199 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 27 | won | +22 | -1171 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1193 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 27 | won | +19 | -1165 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 26 | won | +20 | -1184 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 25 | won | +18 | -1204 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1222 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | EAC | 1.45 | 26 | won | +12 | -1195 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1207 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.74 | 26 | won | +20 | -1180 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 25 | won | +22 | -1199 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.78 | 24 | won | +19 | -1221 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 24 | won | +13 | -1240 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 23 | won | +10 | -1253 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | Revise | 1.81 | 22 | won | +18 | -1263 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 22 | won | +9 | -1281 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1290 |
| 17.08.26 | Raccoons – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.88 | 24 | lost | -24 | -1267 |
| 17.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.65 | 24 | won | +15 | -1242 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 25 | lost | -25 | -1258 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 24 | won | +11 | -1233 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.67 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1244 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1218 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.68 | 26 | won | +18 | -1191 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.81 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1209 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 26 | won | +20 | -1182 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | BERG | 1.51 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1201 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | 9z | 1.83 | 29 | lost | -29 | -1174 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.65 | 28 | won | +18 | -1144 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.