Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-142u
ROI
-0.3%
win rate
56%
bets
1644
drawdown
62.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5top-up-1000u
period 4profit withdrawn+69u
period 3top-up-203u
period 2profit withdrawn+697u
period 1profit withdrawn+294u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 1644 | 56% | -142 | -0.3% | 62.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2832 | 57% | -1026 | -4% | 110.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2832 | 57% | -1040 | -3.7% | 112.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2832 | 57% | -1992 | -4.3% | 206.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2832 | 57% | -4257 | -5.2% | 394.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2832 | 57% | -6049 | -6.4% | 482.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1644, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.08.26 | Color – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.68 | 166 | lost | -166 | 858 |
| 25.08.26 | ex-GUARA – Blitzkrieg | ex-GUARA | 1.68 | 640 | lost | -640 | 1024 |
| 25.08.26 | ex-RUBY – Black Phoenix | ex-RUBY | 1.66 | 320 | lost | -320 | 1664 |
| 24.08.26 | 100 Thieves – Eternal Fire | 100 Thieves | 1.71 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1984 |
| 24.08.26 | Color – EAC | EAC | 1.84 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2144 |
| 24.08.26 | 100 Thieves – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.68 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2224 |
| 24.08.26 | QUAZAR – Nemiga | QUAZAR | 1.83 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2264 |
| 24.08.26 | Eternal Fire – ex-RUBY | ex-RUBY | 1.64 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2284 |
| 24.08.26 | Echo – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 2294 |
| 24.08.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Spirit Academy | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.59 | 10 | won | +6 | 2286 |
| 24.08.26 | Falcons Force – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 1.60 | 20 | won | +12 | 2281 |
| 24.08.26 | GenOne – Leo | GenOne | 1.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2269 |
| 24.08.26 | MASONIC – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 2279 |
| 24.08.26 | The Huns – Nas | The Huns | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 2271 |
| 24.08.26 | NEXVOID – Chinggis Warriors | NEXVOID | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 2263 |
| 24.08.26 | The Huns – Vitalem Aerem | The Huns | 1.87 | 20 | won | +17 | 2256 |
| 23.08.26 | MAYBE – FORZE Reload | MAYBE | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2239 |
| 23.08.26 | Just Players – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 2249 |
| 23.08.26 | HOTU – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | HOTU | 1.81 | 80 | won | +64 | 2241 |
| 23.08.26 | Lavked – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.68 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2176 |
| 23.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.73 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2216 |
| 23.08.26 | mellren – WBT | WBT | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2236 |
| 23.08.26 | GenOne – ex-RUSTEC | GenOne | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 2246 |
| 23.08.26 | FUT – Spirit | Spirit | 1.48 | 10 | won | +5 | 2240 |
| 23.08.26 | Drip Too Hard – MASONIC | Drip Too Hard | 1.86 | 20 | won | +17 | 2235 |
| 23.08.26 | Honvéd – Revise | Revise | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2218 |
| 23.08.26 | WBT – Noir Verse | WBT | 1.59 | 10 | won | +6 | 2228 |
| 23.08.26 | ex-RUBY – illwill | ex-RUBY | 1.29 | 80 | won | +23 | 2222 |
| 23.08.26 | Kaleido – NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 1.61 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2199 |
| 23.08.26 | Raccoons – Vexar | Raccoons | 1.78 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2239 |
| 23.08.26 | Rare Atom – Vitalem Aerem | Vitalem Aerem | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2259 |
| 23.08.26 | The Huns – Chinggis Warriors | The Huns | 1.78 | 20 | won | +16 | 2269 |
| 22.08.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – SPARTA | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2253 |
| 22.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE Prospects – illwill | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.36 | 10 | won | +4 | 2263 |
| 22.08.26 | INOX Division – Honvéd | INOX Division | 1.50 | 40 | won | +20 | 2260 |
| 22.08.26 | FURIA – FUT | FURIA | 1.75 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2240 |
| 22.08.26 | NEXVOID – Alter Ego | NEXVOID | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2260 |
| 22.08.26 | 1win – BET-M | 1win | 1.53 | 10 | won | +5 | 2270 |
| 22.08.26 | Butterfly – Black Phoenix | Butterfly | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 2264 |
| 22.08.26 | Falcons Force – ENCE | ENCE | 1.71 | 20 | won | +14 | 2257 |
| 22.08.26 | WBT – mellren | WBT | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2243 |
| 22.08.26 | 5star – Kaleido | 5star | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 2253 |
| 22.08.26 | Nemesis – Color | Nemesis | 1.77 | 160 | won | +123 | 2246 |
| 22.08.26 | The Huns – Rare Atom | The Huns | 1.80 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2123 |
| 21.08.26 | MAYBE – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.77 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2203 |
| 21.08.26 | SPARTA – Leo | Leo | 1.76 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2243 |
| 21.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Just Players | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2263 |
| 21.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bebop | Black Phoenix | 1.47 | 10 | won | +5 | 2273 |
| 21.08.26 | GenOne – HAVU | GenOne | 1.38 | 40 | won | +15 | 2268 |
| 21.08.26 | Noir Verse – LPH | LPH | 1.68 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2253 |
| 21.08.26 | FUT – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2273 |
| 21.08.26 | Black Phoenix – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.85 | 10 | won | +9 | 2283 |
| 21.08.26 | Mai Tai – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 1.42 | 40 | won | +17 | 2274 |
| 20.08.26 | Nordic Valor – MAYBE | Nordic Valor | 1.76 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2257 |
| 20.08.26 | FORZE Reload – Younglings | Younglings | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2277 |
| 20.08.26 | Ryvex – Coalesce | Ryvex | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 2287 |
| 20.08.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | The Last Resort | 1.66 | 20 | won | +13 | 2279 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons Force – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2265 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 – FURIA | FURIA | 1.81 | 20 | won | +16 | 2275 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2259 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.