Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-719u
ROI
-6.9%
win rate
47%
bets
299
drawdown
78.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+281u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 299 | 47% | -719 | -6.9% | 78.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -956 | -8.6% | 98% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1242 | 53% | -1059 | -8.5% | 108.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -1725 | -8.6% | 174.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -3152 | -8% | 308.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -3893 | -6.1% | 232.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 299, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.06.26 | MIBR – THUNDER dOWNUNDER | MIBR | 1.77 | 418 | lost | -418 | 281 |
| 02.06.26 | Rebels – ex-Zero Tenacity | Rebels | 1.63 | 320 | lost | -320 | 699 |
| 02.06.26 | DragonClaw – Misa | DragonClaw | 1.83 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1019 |
| 02.06.26 | SINNERS – FlyQuest | SINNERS | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1179 |
| 02.06.26 | M80 – Lynn Vision | Lynn Vision | 1.85 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1259 |
| 02.06.26 | brazylijski luz – Atreides | Atreides | 1.65 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1299 |
| 01.06.26 | NEW VISION – Banger Gang | Banger Gang | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1319 |
| 01.06.26 | ReThink – VP.Prodigy | ReThink | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1329 |
| 01.06.26 | Misa – Falcons Force | Misa | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1312 |
| 01.06.26 | Arch – OLDBOYS PL | Arch | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1322 |
| 01.06.26 | Ursa – ex-Zero Tenacity | Ursa | 1.79 | 20 | won | +16 | 1313 |
| 01.06.26 | Phantom – DragonClaw | DragonClaw | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1297 |
| 01.06.26 | GenOne – DONSTU | GenOne | 1.64 | 40 | won | +26 | 1307 |
| 31.05.26 | ENCE – cirahvi | cirahvi | 1.84 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1281 |
| 31.05.26 | Nemesis – FOKUS | FOKUS | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1301 |
| 31.05.26 | MANA – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.85 | 10 | won | +9 | 1311 |
| 31.05.26 | Rebels – HAVU | Rebels | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 1303 |
| 31.05.26 | Fluxo – Galorys | Galorys | 1.81 | 20 | won | +16 | 1295 |
| 31.05.26 | Marsborne – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1279 |
| 31.05.26 | WBT – ZOTIX | WBT | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1289 |
| 31.05.26 | Lithuanian Wolves – Galaxy | Lithuanian Wolves | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1280 |
| 31.05.26 | cirahvi – boyband | cirahvi | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1271 |
| 31.05.26 | Reign Above – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1262 |
| 31.05.26 | HEROIC Academy – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.66 | 20 | won | +13 | 1254 |
| 31.05.26 | KOLESIE – DragonClaw | KOLESIE | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1241 |
| 31.05.26 | FOKUS – Nemiga | FOKUS | 1.72 | 40 | won | +29 | 1251 |
| 31.05.26 | Gentle Mates – Nemesis | Gentle Mates | 1.61 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1222 |
| 31.05.26 | SNITKO – ZOTIX | SNITKO | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1242 |
| 31.05.26 | HOTU – Rune Eaters | HOTU | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 1252 |
| 31.05.26 | ENCE – Atreides | Atreides | 1.74 | 20 | won | +15 | 1246 |
| 31.05.26 | RUSTEC – Young Ninjas | Young Ninjas | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1231 |
| 31.05.26 | TDK – OG | TDK | 1.88 | 160 | won | +140 | 1241 |
| 31.05.26 | Omega – Rune Eaters | Omega | 1.62 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1101 |
| 31.05.26 | TNC – Misa | TNC | 1.61 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1181 |
| 31.05.26 | Reign Above – F5 | F5 | 1.83 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1221 |
| 31.05.26 | SportsBetExpert – Chicken Coop | SportsBetExpert | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1241 |
| 31.05.26 | Wanted Goons – LAG | LAG | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1251 |
| 31.05.26 | F5 – FRZ | F5 | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1242 |
| 30.05.26 | Galorys – LP | LP | 1.85 | 10 | won | +8 | 1234 |
| 30.05.26 | Wanted Goons – NineFly | Wanted Goons | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 1226 |
| 30.05.26 | F5 – makeSHIFT | F5 | 1.83 | 40 | won | +33 | 1217 |
| 30.05.26 | NXG – FRZ | NXG | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1184 |
| 30.05.26 | Yawara – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1204 |
| 30.05.26 | Oramond – CYBERSHOKE | Oramond | 1.81 | 20 | won | +16 | 1214 |
| 30.05.26 | 100 Thieves – Nemesis | 100 Thieves | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1197 |
| 30.05.26 | Wanted Goons – Reign Above | Reign Above | 1.82 | 80 | won | +66 | 1207 |
| 30.05.26 | Chicken Coop – F5 | F5 | 1.77 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1142 |
| 30.05.26 | Marsborne – LAG | LAG | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1182 |
| 30.05.26 | magic – Ninjas in Pyjamas | magic | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1202 |
| 30.05.26 | WW – Gentle Mates | Gentle Mates | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 1212 |
| 30.05.26 | ALGO – KOLESIE | KOLESIE | 1.75 | 10 | won | +8 | 1204 |
| 30.05.26 | F5 – absolute cinema | F5 | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1197 |
| 30.05.26 | NineFly – NXG | NineFly | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1179 |
| 30.05.26 | LAG – makeSHIFT | LAG | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1189 |
| 30.05.26 | brazylijski luz – Vexar | Vexar | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 1180 |
| 30.05.26 | DEPO – Omega | Omega | 1.74 | 80 | won | +59 | 1172 |
| 30.05.26 | Gentle Mates – GenOne | GenOne | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1113 |
| 30.05.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – FaZe | FaZe | 1.77 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1153 |
| 30.05.26 | Phantom – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1173 |
| 30.05.26 | G2 Ares – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.82 | 40 | won | +33 | 1183 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.