Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-3152u
ROI
-8%
win rate
53%
bets
1242
drawdown
308.6%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-728u
period 3top-up-760u
period 2top-up-759u
period 1top-up-905u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 299 | 47% | -719 | -6.9% | 78.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -956 | -8.6% | 98% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1242 | 53% | -1059 | -8.5% | 108.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -1725 | -8.6% | 174.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -3152 | -8% | 308.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1242 | 53% | -3893 | -6.1% | 232.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1242, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | ENCE | 1.82 | 13 | won | +11 | -2152 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 13 | won | +10 | -2162 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2172 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.56 | 13 | won | +7 | -2159 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 14 | lost | -14 | -2166 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 14 | lost | -14 | -2153 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 14 | won | +7 | -2139 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 14 | won | +7 | -2146 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 14 | lost | -14 | -2153 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2139 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2124 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 15 | won | +12 | -2108 |
| 19.08.26 | Drip Too Hard – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.68 | 15 | won | +10 | -2120 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 14 | won | +10 | -2130 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2141 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.74 | 14 | won | +11 | -2126 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.67 | 14 | won | +9 | -2137 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2146 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.50 | 14 | won | +7 | -2131 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 14 | won | +12 | -2139 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 14 | lost | -14 | -2150 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.84 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2136 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2121 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.88 | 17 | lost | -17 | -2105 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 16 | won | +13 | -2088 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 16 | won | +11 | -2101 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2112 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 16 | won | +5 | -2095 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | WBT | 1.36 | 16 | won | +6 | -2100 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 15 | won | +11 | -2106 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2117 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 16 | won | +12 | -2100 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.78 | 15 | won | +12 | -2113 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 14 | won | +12 | -2125 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | Enjoy | 1.46 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2137 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 15 | won | +6 | -2122 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 14 | won | +6 | -2128 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2134 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.82 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2119 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | ENCE | 1.82 | 15 | won | +13 | -2103 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | Permitta | 1.83 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2115 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 16 | won | +13 | -2099 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2112 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 17 | lost | -17 | -2095 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Imperial | 1.65 | 17 | won | +11 | -2078 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.68 | 16 | won | +11 | -2089 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.80 | 16 | won | +12 | -2100 |
| 16.08.26 | G2 Ares – Permitta | Permitta | 1.83 | 15 | won | +12 | -2112 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | BERG | 1.51 | 16 | lost | -16 | -2125 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | 9z | 1.76 | 17 | lost | -17 | -2109 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 16 | won | +13 | -2092 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 17 | lost | -17 | -2105 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | WBT | 1.69 | 16 | won | +11 | -2089 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Lynn Vision | 1.84 | 17 | lost | -17 | -2100 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | FORZE Reload | 1.73 | 16 | won | +12 | -2083 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.58 | 16 | won | +9 | -2095 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | Vexar | 1.65 | 15 | won | +10 | -2104 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.66 | 15 | won | +10 | -2114 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | Spirit | 1.73 | 14 | won | +11 | -2124 |
| 15.08.26 | eternal premium – Revise | Revise | 1.76 | 14 | won | +11 | -2135 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.