Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+504u
ROI
+5.1%
win rate
96%
bets
494
drawdown
4.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+29u
period 24profit withdrawn+14u
period 23profit withdrawn+32u
period 22profit withdrawn+18u
period 21profit withdrawn+26u
period 20profit withdrawn+27u
period 19profit withdrawn+18u
period 18profit withdrawn+28u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +2547 | +4.9% | 13.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +1266 | +5% | 8.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +504 | +5.1% | 4.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 8 | 88% | +302 | +82.5% | 2.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 494 | 96% | +274 | +5.3% | 2.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +251 | +5.1% | 2.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 96% | +251 | +5.1% | 2.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | 1504 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 21 | won | +1 | 1504 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 21 | won | +1 | 1502 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | 1502 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 20 | won | +23 | 1502 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 20 | won | +4 | 1479 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 20 | won | +3 | 1475 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1471 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1471 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 20 | won | +7 | 1471 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1464 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.12 | 20 | won | +2 | 1463 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 1461 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1461 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | NS Team | 1.25 | 20 | won | +5 | 1460 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Nemiga Gaming | 1.80 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1455 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Zero Tenacity | 1.25 | 20 | won | +5 | 1476 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.04 | 20 | won | +1 | 1471 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | REKONIX | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1470 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 1470 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1469 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1469 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.20 | 20 | won | +4 | 1469 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1465 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.20 | 20 | won | +4 | 1465 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Nigma Galaxy | 1.12 | 21 | won | +2 | 1461 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | By_Owl Team | 1.04 | 21 | won | +1 | 1458 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 1.60 | 20 | won | +12 | 1457 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1445 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 1445 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | Dread Team | 1.30 | 20 | won | +6 | 1445 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | Mentality Monster | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 1439 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Grind Back | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1438 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1438 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1438 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.20 | 20 | won | +4 | 1438 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Estar Backs | 1.03 | 20 | won | +1 | 1433 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | NA Last Hope | 1.35 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1433 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Team Nemesis | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1453 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | L1ga Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1453 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.65 | 20 | won | +13 | 1453 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.32 | 20 | won | +6 | 1440 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 1.03 | 20 | won | +1 | 1433 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.08 | 20 | won | +2 | 1433 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 1431 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | Poor Rangers | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 1431 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1430 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.08 | 20 | won | +2 | 1430 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1429 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.45 | 20 | won | +9 | 1428 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | Ramzes Club | 1.12 | 20 | won | +2 | 1419 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.20 | 20 | won | +4 | 1417 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1413 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1413 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | Team Falcons | 1.17 | 20 | won | +3 | 1412 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1409 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.60 | 20 | won | +12 | 1409 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Solo Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 1397 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.03 | 20 | won | +1 | 1397 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Aurora Gaming | 1.03 | 20 | won | +1 | 1396 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.