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Always the favorite

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

profit
+1167u
ROI
+10.5%
win rate
62%
bets
128
drawdown
36%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Always the favorite

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+162u
period 2top-up-272u
period 1profit withdrawn+1277u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll12862%+1167+10.5%36%Select
5% of bankroll12862%+567+9.5%28.7%Select
2% of bankroll12862%+227+9.1%15.6%Select
Martingale12862%+129+4.2%55.1%Select
Flat (10 units)12862%+114+8.9%8.8%Select
1% of bankroll12862%+114+9%8.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.88129lost-1292167
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.83119won+992296
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88132lost-1322196
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82122won+1012329
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54116won+632228
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.82107won+882165
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.70100won+712077
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7094won+662006
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.87104lost-1041941
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6897won+672045
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.88108lost-1081978
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.86100won+862086
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6993won+642000
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8986won+761936
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8595lost-951860
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6689won+591955
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6599lost-991896
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7292won+671995
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7786won+661928
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8979won+701863
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6374won+471793
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7582lost-821746
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6691lost-911828
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8684won+721920
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8794lost-941848
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.76104lost-1041941
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85116lost-1162045
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.74108won+802161
01.10.26MOUZ – OGOG1.76100won+762081
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.7481lost-812005
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.4677won+352086
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.8886lost-862050
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.8779won+692136
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.4388lost-882067
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.7582won+612155
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.6976won+532094
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.6372won+452041
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.7480lost-801996
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8274won+612076
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.5370won+372015
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8665won+551978
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.7872lost-721922
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5480lost-801994
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.8274won+612074
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8368won+572013
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6464won+411957
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8859won+521916
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8254won+441864
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8150won+411820
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7947won+371779
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5044won+221742
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5349lost-491720
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7246won+331769
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7843won+331736
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7440won+291703
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8736won+321674
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.6634won+231642
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5838lost-381619
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriHokori1.7842lost-421657
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w TeamNatus Vincere1.5740won+231700
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Always the favorite" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.