Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-171u
ROI
-24.2%
win rate
36%
bets
36
drawdown
21.2%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+22u
period 2top-up-131u
period 1top-up-61u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 36 | 36% | +95 | +4.5% | 60.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 36% | -86 | -24.2% | 10.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 36% | -87 | -24.2% | 11% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 36% | -171 | -24.2% | 21.2% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 36% | -413 | -24.2% | 51.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 36% | -781 | -24% | 96.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Nemiga Gaming | 3.13 | 20 | won | +42 | 829 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.43 | 20 | lost | -20 | 788 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 808 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 21 | lost | -21 | 828 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 21 | lost | -21 | 849 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 21 | won | +19 | 870 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 21 | lost | -21 | 851 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 22 | lost | -22 | 872 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 21 | won | +22 | 894 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 21 | won | +25 | 872 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 20 | won | +21 | 847 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 20 | won | +18 | 826 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 17 | won | +18 | 808 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 17 | lost | -17 | 790 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 18 | lost | -18 | 807 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 18 | lost | -18 | 825 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 18 | lost | -18 | 843 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 19 | lost | -19 | 861 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 19 | lost | -19 | 880 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 19 | won | +25 | 899 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 19 | lost | -19 | 874 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 19 | won | +18 | 893 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.90 | 19 | lost | -19 | 875 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 20 | lost | -20 | 894 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 914 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 20 | won | +17 | 934 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 19 | won | +18 | 916 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 20 | lost | -20 | 898 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 918 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 938 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 20 | won | +19 | 958 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 18 | won | +16 | 939 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 19 | lost | -19 | 922 |
| 29.08.26 | Team Resilience – Animals Incoming | Animals Incoming | 1.89 | 19 | lost | -19 | 941 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 960 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 2.02 | 20 | lost | -20 | 980 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.