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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-4978u
ROI
-56%
win rate
37%
bets
494
drawdown
497.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-92u
period 24top-up-206u
period 23top-up-221u
period 22top-up-243u
period 21top-up-273u
period 20top-up-260u
period 19top-up-165u
period 18top-up-293u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8739%-1840-48%184%Select
1% of bankroll49437%-2628-56.1%262.8%Select
Flat (10 units)49437%-2777-56.2%277.6%Select
2% of bankroll49437%-4978-56%497.8%Selected
5% of bankroll49437%-10634-55.8%1062.9%Select
Quarter Kelly3002%-14113-97.5%1411.3%Select
10% of bankroll49437%-16671-55.3%1665.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0019lost-19-3978
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0019lost-19-3960
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0019lost-19-3941
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0020lost-20-3922
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0020lost-20-3902
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2020won+4-3882
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1716won+3-3886
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0016lost-16-3889
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0016lost-16-3872
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0017lost-17-3856
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0117won+0-3839
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team1w Team1.1217won+2-3839
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0217won+0-3841
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0117won+0-3842
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamNS Team1.2517won+4-3842
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsNemiga Gaming1.8017lost-17-3846
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6017lost-17-3829
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0018lost-18-3812
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisREKONIX1.0118won+0-3794
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8018lost-18-3794
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0018lost-18-3776
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0019lost-19-3758
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0019lost-19-3739
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0020lost-20-3720
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0020lost-20-3700
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8016lost-16-3680
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0016lost-16-3664
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamL1ga Team1.6016won+10-3648
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0016lost-16-3657
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0216won+0-3641
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2017lost-17-3641
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0017lost-17-3625
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0017lost-17-3608
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0018lost-18-3590
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0018lost-18-3573
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy1.2018won+4-3555
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamEstar Backs1.0318won+1-3558
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopeNA Last Hope1.3518lost-18-3559
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0019lost-19-3540
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0019lost-19-3522
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.6519won+12-3503
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.1019lost-19-3515
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidLGD Gaming1.0319won+1-3496
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0020lost-20-3496
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0020lost-20-3476
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersPoor Rangers1.0220won+0-3456
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming1.0120won+0-3457
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubRamzes Club1.0820won+2-3457
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.0015lost-15-3459
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.4515won+7-3443
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3016lost-16-3450
27.05.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidLGD Gaming4.5016lost-16-3434
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.0016lost-16-3418
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0116won+0-3402
26.05.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0017lost-17-3402
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0117won+0-3386
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.6016won+10-3386
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0017lost-17-3396
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0317won+1-3379
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0017lost-17-3380
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.