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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-304u
ROI
-17.3%
win rate
42%
bets
36
drawdown
42.5%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+83u
period 2top-up-237u
period 1top-up-149u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll3642%-61-17.1%9%Select
Flat (10 units)3642%-61-17.1%9.1%Select
2% of bankroll3642%-123-17.2%17.7%Select
5% of bankroll3642%-304-17.3%42.5%Selected
10% of bankroll3642%-593-17.3%78.5%Select
Martingale2330%-1008-62.1%100.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8952won+46696
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9050won+45650
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4352lost-52606
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9555lost-55658
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1258lost-58713
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9155won+50771
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1358lost-58721
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0861lost-61779
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0558won+61840
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1955won+65779
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0352won+54714
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9250won+46660
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0736won+39614
27.09.26avice Team – Cake Teamavice Team1.9538lost-38575
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming2.4640lost-40613
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice Teamavice Team1.9242lost-42653
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereTeam Nemesis2.2144lost-44696
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w Team1w Team1.9647lost-47740
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.9749lost-49787
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak Teamavice Team2.1852lost-52836
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3549won+66888
21.09.26YBN Team – NS TeamNS Team1.9546won+44823
21.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4GamerLegion1.9044won+40778
20.09.26Inner Circle – Yellow SubmarineInner Circle2.2147lost-47738
20.09.26PlayTime – Team CobraPlayTime1.8949lost-49785
20.09.26Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8947won+42834
19.09.26LGD Gaming – Yakult BrothersLGD Gaming1.9545won+43792
16.09.26Inner Circle – uralanInner Circle1.9047lost-47750
12.09.26Team Nemesis – InterActive PhilippinesInterActive Philippines1.9550lost-50797
08.09.26MOUZ – GamerLegionMOUZ1.9652lost-52847
07.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4GamerLegion1.9750won+48899
30.08.26Natus Vincere – MOUZNatus Vincere1.8941won+36851
29.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.0243lost-43815
29.08.26DYNASTY – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.4745lost-45857
24.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.8948lost-48902
23.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION2.0250lost-50950
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.