Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-4977u
ROI
-56.1%
win rate
37%
bets
494
drawdown
497.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-92u
period 24top-up-206u
period 23top-up-221u
period 22top-up-243u
period 21top-up-273u
period 20top-up-260u
period 19top-up-165u
period 18top-up-293u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 87 | 38% | -1949 | -48.2% | 194.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -2627 | -56.1% | 262.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 37% | -2776 | -56.2% | 277.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -4977 | -56.1% | 497.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -10630 | -55.9% | 1062.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 300 | 2% | -14096 | -97.5% | 1409.6% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -16663 | -55.5% | 1664.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3977 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3959 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3940 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -3920 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -3901 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 20 | won | +4 | -3881 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 16 | won | +3 | -3885 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3887 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3871 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3855 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 17 | won | +0 | -3838 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.12 | 17 | won | +2 | -3838 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.02 | 17 | won | +0 | -3840 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 17 | won | +0 | -3840 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | NS Team | 1.25 | 17 | won | +4 | -3841 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Nemiga Gaming | 1.80 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3845 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3828 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -3810 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | REKONIX | 1.01 | 18 | won | +0 | -3793 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 18 | lost | -18 | -3793 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -3775 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3756 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3737 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -3718 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -3699 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 5.80 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3679 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 13.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3663 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 1.60 | 16 | won | +10 | -3646 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 12.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3656 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 16 | won | +0 | -3640 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | DangerLyoha Team | 3.20 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3640 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | InterActive Philippines | 10.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3623 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Carstensz Esports | 13.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3606 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | summer bear | 13.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -3589 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Flame Esports | 12.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -3571 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.20 | 18 | won | +4 | -3553 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Estar Backs | 1.03 | 18 | won | +1 | -3557 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | NA Last Hope | 1.35 | 18 | lost | -18 | -3557 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3539 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 11.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3520 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.65 | 19 | won | +12 | -3501 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 3.10 | 19 | lost | -19 | -3513 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 1.03 | 19 | won | +1 | -3494 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | Execration | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -3495 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | Carstensz Esports | 12.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -3475 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | Poor Rangers | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | -3455 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -3455 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.08 | 20 | won | +2 | -3456 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | OG | 15.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -3457 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.45 | 15 | won | +7 | -3442 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | NS Club | 5.30 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3449 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 4.50 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3433 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | OG | 15.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -3417 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 16 | won | +0 | -3401 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3401 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 17 | won | +0 | -3384 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.60 | 16 | won | +10 | -3385 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Recrent Team | 12.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3394 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.03 | 17 | won | +1 | -3378 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 11.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -3378 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.