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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-156u
ROI
-22.1%
win rate
39%
bets
36
drawdown
21%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+36u
period 2top-up-131u
period 1top-up-61u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll3639%-79-22.3%10.8%Select
Flat (10 units)3639%-81-22.4%11%Select
Martingale3639%-85-4.3%60.6%Select
2% of bankroll3639%-156-22.1%21%Select
5% of bankroll3639%-373-21.8%49.1%Select
10% of bankroll3639%-690-21.1%87.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8920won+18844
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9020won+18826
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9520lost-20808
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9521lost-21828
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1221lost-21849
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9121won+19870
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1321lost-21851
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0822lost-22872
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0521won+22894
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1921won+25872
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0320won+21847
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9220won+18826
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0717won+18808
27.09.26avice Team – Cake Teamavice Team1.9517lost-17790
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming2.4618lost-18807
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice Teamavice Team1.9218lost-18825
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereTeam Nemesis2.2118lost-18843
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w Team1w Team1.9619lost-19861
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.9719lost-19880
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3519won+25899
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak Teamavice Team2.1819lost-19874
21.09.26YBN Team – NS TeamNS Team1.9519won+18893
21.09.26Aurora Gaming – Team CobraTeam Cobra1.9019lost-19875
20.09.26Inner Circle – Yellow SubmarineInner Circle2.2120lost-20894
20.09.26PlayTime – Team CobraPlayTime1.8920lost-20914
20.09.26Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8920won+17934
19.09.26LGD Gaming – Yakult BrothersLGD Gaming1.9519won+18916
16.09.26Inner Circle – uralanInner Circle1.9020lost-20898
12.09.26Team Nemesis – InterActive PhilippinesInterActive Philippines1.9520lost-20918
08.09.26MOUZ – GamerLegionMOUZ1.9620lost-20938
07.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4GamerLegion1.9720won+19958
30.08.26Natus Vincere – MOUZNatus Vincere1.8918won+16939
29.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.0219lost-19922
29.08.26DYNASTY – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.4719lost-19941
24.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.8920lost-20960
23.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION2.0220lost-20980
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.