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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-21385u
ROI
-94.7%
win rate
3%
bets
751
drawdown
2138.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-756u
period 24top-up-757u
period 23top-up-877u
period 22top-up-819u
period 21top-up-934u
period 20top-up-891u
period 19top-up-822u
period 18top-up-940u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale15642%-2095-33.2%209.5%Select
1% of bankroll125938%-5795-52.4%579.3%Select
Flat (10 units)125938%-6627-52.6%662.5%Select
2% of bankroll125938%-10201-52.1%1019.5%Select
5% of bankroll125938%-18070-51.3%1804.5%Select
Quarter Kelly7513%-21385-94.7%2138.5%Selected
10% of bankroll125938%-22821-49.7%2275.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 751, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0027lost-27-20385
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0017lost-17-20358
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0019lost-19-20340
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0021lost-21-20322
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3016lost-16-20300
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0038lost-38-20284
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0015lost-15-20246
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0015lost-15-20230
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.005lost-5-20216
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxTeam Syntax12.0024lost-24-20210
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0049lost-49-20187
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0043lost-43-20137
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0059lost-59-20094
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0044lost-44-20035
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0053lost-53-19990
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0045lost-45-19938
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0077lost-77-19893
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0090lost-90-19815
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0096lost-96-19725
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0027lost-27-19629
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0018lost-18-19602
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0012lost-12-19584
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0017lost-17-19571
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0021lost-21-19554
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0038lost-38-19533
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6012lost-12-19495
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0019lost-19-19483
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0034lost-34-19463
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0025lost-25-19429
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0038lost-38-19404
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0042lost-42-19366
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0026lost-26-19324
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8039lost-39-19298
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0022lost-22-19259
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0061lost-61-19237
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.006lost-6-19176
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0019lost-19-19170
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0031lost-31-19151
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0084lost-84-19119
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0021lost-21-19036
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0053lost-53-19014
03.07.26ALOHADANCE Team – By_Owl TeamALOHADANCE Team10.0089lost-89-18961
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.809lost-9-18872
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0013lost-13-18863
26.06.26Enjoy Boys – L1ga TeamEnjoy Boys14.0011lost-11-18850
25.06.26Stray Team – SereGGa TeamSereGGa Team4.5013lost-13-18839
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0016lost-16-18826
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2013lost-13-18810
24.06.26Daxak Team – SereGGa TeamDaxak Team3.2012lost-12-18797
23.06.26Team Spirit – Enjoy BoysEnjoy Boys14.007lost-7-18785
21.06.26Team Spirit – VP.ProdigyVP.Prodigy14.004lost-4-18778
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0020lost-20-18774
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0024lost-24-18755
20.06.26Flame Esports – Hive-Flame Esports6.0017won+86-18730
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0014lost-14-18816
19.06.26PlayTime – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming13.0013lost-13-18803
18.06.26Yakult Brothers – Vici GamingYakult Brothers3.204lost-4-18790
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0017lost-17-18785
17.06.26Vici Gaming – Team RefuserTeam Refuser8.5014lost-14-18769
17.06.26PlayTime – Estar BacksEstar Backs6.3012lost-12-18755
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.