Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1022u
ROI
-39.7%
win rate
31%
bets
68
drawdown
109.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-118u
period 2top-up-529u
period 1top-up-375u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -241 | -37.6% | 25.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 68 | 31% | -252 | -37% | 27% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -463 | -38.2% | 49.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -1022 | -39.7% | 109.6% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -1675 | -41.5% | 179.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 42 | won | +38 | -22 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 40 | won | +36 | -59 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.43 | 43 | lost | -43 | -96 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 45 | lost | -45 | -53 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 47 | lost | -47 | -8 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 50 | lost | -50 | 39 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 47 | won | +43 | 88 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 50 | lost | -50 | 45 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 53 | lost | -53 | 95 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 55 | lost | -55 | 148 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 53 | won | +55 | 203 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 50 | won | +59 | 148 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 52 | lost | -52 | 89 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 50 | won | +51 | 141 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 48 | won | +44 | 90 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 50 | lost | -50 | 46 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 22 | won | +24 | 96 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 21 | won | +19 | 73 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 20 | won | +35 | 54 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 21 | lost | -21 | 19 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 22 | lost | -22 | 40 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 23 | lost | -23 | 62 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 21 | won | +31 | 85 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 23 | lost | -23 | 54 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 24 | lost | -24 | 76 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 25 | lost | -25 | 100 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 26 | lost | -26 | 125 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 28 | lost | -28 | 151 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 29 | lost | -29 | 179 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 31 | lost | -31 | 208 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 32 | lost | -32 | 239 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 34 | lost | -34 | 271 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 32 | won | +43 | 305 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 34 | lost | -34 | 262 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Nemesis – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 2.06 | 32 | won | +34 | 296 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 30 | won | +29 | 262 |
| 21.09.26 | Solo Team – Daxak Team | Solo Team | 2.11 | 32 | lost | -32 | 233 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.22 | 34 | lost | -34 | 265 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Nemiga Gaming | 2.41 | 35 | lost | -35 | 299 |
| 21.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 34 | won | +31 | 334 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 36 | lost | -36 | 304 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 38 | lost | -38 | 339 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 36 | won | +32 | 377 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 34 | won | +33 | 345 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | uralan | 1.89 | 36 | lost | -36 | 312 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Team Spirit Academy | 1.99 | 38 | lost | -38 | 348 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | Kalmychata | 1.95 | 36 | won | +35 | 386 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Nemiga Gaming | 2.25 | 38 | lost | -38 | 352 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 40 | lost | -40 | 390 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Recrent Team | 2.02 | 42 | lost | -42 | 430 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 45 | lost | -45 | 473 |
| 10.09.26 | Recrent Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.89 | 43 | won | +38 | 517 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 2.06 | 45 | lost | -45 | 479 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.96 | 47 | lost | -47 | 524 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 50 | lost | -50 | 572 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 48 | won | +46 | 621 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.95 | 50 | lost | -50 | 575 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 30 | won | +27 | 625 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 32 | lost | -32 | 599 |
| 29.08.26 | MOUZ – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.89 | 33 | lost | -33 | 630 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.