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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-10234u
ROI
-52.4%
win rate
38%
bets
1259
drawdown
1022.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-268u
period 24top-up-357u
period 23top-up-401u
period 22top-up-444u
period 21top-up-490u
period 20top-up-485u
period 19top-up-300u
period 18top-up-553u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale15641%-1867-26.2%180.7%Select
1% of bankroll125938%-5819-52.7%581.7%Select
Flat (10 units)125938%-6661-52.9%666%Select
2% of bankroll125938%-10234-52.4%1022.8%Select
5% of bankroll125938%-18095-51.5%1806.9%Select
Quarter Kelly7503%-21402-95%2140.2%Selected
10% of bankroll125938%-22822-49.9%2275.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0015lost-15-9234
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0015lost-15-9219
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0016lost-16-9204
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0316won+0-9188
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0016lost-16-9189
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3016lost-16-9173
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0017lost-17-9157
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0017lost-17-9140
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0017lost-17-9123
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0018lost-18-9106
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.2217won+4-9088
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.2517won+4-9092
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.0117won+0-9097
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0018lost-18-9097
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPLevel UP2.2517won+22-9079
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0018lost-18-9101
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0018lost-18-9083
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0018lost-18-9065
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.2618won+5-9047
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.3018won+5-9051
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0019lost-19-9057
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0019lost-19-9038
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0019lost-19-9019
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0619won+1-9000
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2019won+4-9001
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0020lost-20-9005
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0020lost-20-8986
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1713won+2-8966
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0013lost-13-8968
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXREKONIX1.0513won+1-8955
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0013lost-13-8955
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0014lost-14-8942
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0014lost-14-8928
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0014lost-14-8914
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0114won+0-8900
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team1w Team1.1214won+2-8900
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0214won+0-8902
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0014lost-14-8902
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0114won+0-8888
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0114won+0-8888
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamNS Team1.2514won+4-8888
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPLevel UP1.0614won+1-8892
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsNemiga Gaming1.8015lost-15-8893
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4014won+20-8878
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsLevel UP1.0214won+0-8898
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6014lost-14-8898
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp1.0214won+0-8884
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0015lost-15-8884
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0015lost-15-8869
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0015lost-15-8854
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0016lost-16-8839
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0016lost-16-8823
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0016lost-16-8807
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisREKONIX1.0116won+0-8791
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8017lost-17-8791
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0017lost-17-8774
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0017lost-17-8757
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0018lost-18-8740
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0018lost-18-8722
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0018lost-18-8704
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.