Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-511u
ROI
-42.4%
win rate
29%
bets
69
drawdown
52.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-64u
period 2top-up-279u
period 1top-up-168u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 69 | 29% | -268 | -41.7% | 27.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 69 | 29% | -282 | -40.8% | 29% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 69 | 29% | -511 | -42.4% | 52.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 69 | 29% | -1111 | -44.4% | 114% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 69 | 29% | -1786 | -46.4% | 182.9% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 69, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Team Resilience – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 2.28 | 19 | lost | -19 | 489 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 19 | won | +17 | 508 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 18 | won | +17 | 491 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 19 | lost | -19 | 474 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 19 | lost | -19 | 493 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 20 | lost | -20 | 512 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 20 | lost | -20 | 532 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 20 | won | +18 | 552 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 20 | lost | -20 | 534 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 20 | lost | -20 | 554 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 21 | lost | -21 | 575 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 20 | won | +21 | 596 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 20 | won | +24 | 574 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 20 | lost | -20 | 550 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 20 | won | +21 | 571 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 20 | won | +18 | 550 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 20 | lost | -20 | 532 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 14 | won | +15 | 552 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 14 | won | +12 | 537 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 13 | won | +23 | 525 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 14 | lost | -14 | 501 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 14 | lost | -14 | 515 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 14 | lost | -14 | 529 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 14 | won | +20 | 543 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 14 | lost | -14 | 523 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 14 | lost | -14 | 537 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 15 | lost | -15 | 552 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 15 | lost | -15 | 567 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 15 | lost | -15 | 582 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 16 | lost | -16 | 597 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 16 | lost | -16 | 612 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 16 | lost | -16 | 628 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 16 | won | +21 | 645 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 16 | lost | -16 | 623 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 16 | lost | -16 | 639 |
| 22.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Yakult Brothers | Conventus Stellarum | 1.95 | 16 | won | +15 | 656 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 16 | won | +15 | 641 |
| 21.09.26 | Two Move – Zero Tenacity | Two Move | 1.90 | 16 | won | +14 | 625 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.22 | 16 | lost | -16 | 611 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Nemiga Gaming | 2.41 | 16 | lost | -16 | 627 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.90 | 17 | lost | -17 | 644 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 17 | lost | -17 | 660 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 17 | lost | -17 | 677 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 17 | won | +15 | 694 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 17 | won | +16 | 679 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | uralan | 1.89 | 17 | lost | -17 | 663 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Team Spirit Academy | 1.99 | 17 | lost | -17 | 680 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | Kalmychata | 1.95 | 17 | won | +16 | 698 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Nemiga Gaming | 2.25 | 17 | lost | -17 | 681 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 18 | lost | -18 | 699 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Recrent Team | 2.02 | 18 | lost | -18 | 717 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 18 | lost | -18 | 735 |
| 10.09.26 | GamerLegion – Klim Sani4 | GamerLegion | 2.24 | 19 | lost | -19 | 753 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 2.06 | 19 | lost | -19 | 772 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 791 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 811 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 20 | won | +19 | 831 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 812 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 16 | won | +15 | 832 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 17 | lost | -17 | 817 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.