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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-24227u
ROI
-93.2%
win rate
3%
bets
1520
drawdown
2422.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-909u
period 24top-up-904u
period 23top-up-974u
period 22top-up-994u
period 21top-up-988u
period 20top-up-993u
period 19top-up-983u
period 18top-up-997u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8944%-1259-36.8%125.9%Select
1% of bankroll254238%-10222-52.4%1021.3%Select
Flat (10 units)254238%-13388-52.7%1337.5%Select
2% of bankroll254238%-16075-52.2%1604.5%Select
5% of bankroll254238%-22691-51.5%2258.3%Select
Quarter Kelly15203%-24227-93.2%2422.7%Selected
10% of bankroll254238%-24531-50.8%2429.8%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1520, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-23227
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.006lost-6-23217
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.007lost-7-23210
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.008lost-8-23204
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.0014lost-14-23196
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.307lost-7-23182
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0016lost-16-23175
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0018lost-18-23159
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.007lost-7-23142
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.0020lost-20-23135
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.8017lost-17-23114
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.008lost-8-23097
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.003lost-3-23089
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.0011lost-11-23086
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0027lost-27-23075
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersIlbirs eSports6.6013lost-13-23048
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0025lost-25-23035
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers15.0027lost-27-23010
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Liquid13.0036lost-36-22983
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0041lost-41-22947
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience13.0043lost-43-22906
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0034lost-34-22863
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0054lost-54-22829
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0045lost-45-22774
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0038lost-38-22729
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0066lost-66-22691
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w Team1w Team15.0042lost-42-22625
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0026lost-26-22584
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0084lost-84-22557
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming14.0059lost-59-22473
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0096lost-96-22414
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0011lost-11-22318
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHEnjoy Boys14.0012lost-12-22307
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.008lost-8-22295
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.005lost-5-22287
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.008lost-8-22282
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.009lost-9-22274
30.07.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team12.0017lost-17-22265
30.07.26Zero Tenacity – PuckChampPuckChamp9.0018lost-18-22248
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0020lost-20-22230
26.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming5.3014lost-14-22210
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.607lost-7-22195
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0011lost-11-22188
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0020lost-20-22177
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0015lost-15-22157
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0022lost-22-22143
16.07.26PARIVISION – Rune EatersRune Eaters15.001lost-1-22121
15.07.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming15.0023lost-23-22120
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0026lost-26-22097
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0016lost-16-22071
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8024lost-24-22055
10.07.26Inner Circle – Virtus.proInner Circle15.0031lost-31-22031
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0015lost-15-22000
10.07.26PARIVISION – MOUZMOUZ15.008lost-8-21985
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0042lost-42-21977
10.07.26Level UP – Nigma GalaxyLevel UP15.001lost-1-21935
10.07.26L1ga Team – Team LiquidL1ga Team15.0040lost-40-21934
10.07.26Aurora Gaming – PlayTimePlayTime15.0025lost-25-21894
09.07.26L1ga Team – Aurora GamingL1ga Team15.0028lost-28-21869
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.005lost-5-21840
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.