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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-604u
ROI
-25.8%
win rate
36%
bets
127
drawdown
63%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-134u
period 2top-up-248u
period 1top-up-222u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll12736%-314-25.7%33.1%Select
Flat (10 units)12736%-326-25.7%34.4%Select
2% of bankroll12736%-604-25.8%63%Selected
Martingale813%-1000-98.1%100%Select
5% of bankroll12736%-1332-25.7%134.9%Select
10% of bankroll12736%-2138-25.2%207.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 127, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4518lost-18396
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1317won+36414
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4317lost-17378
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9518lost-18395
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9518lost-18413
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1118lost-18431
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1219lost-19449
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9118won+17468
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1419lost-19451
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8918won+16470
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9119lost-19453
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1319lost-19472
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8920lost-20491
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9219won+18511
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1920lost-20493
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2019won+23513
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0820lost-20490
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0320lost-20510
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8920lost-20530
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2321lost-21550
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0520won+21571
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1920won+24549
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9220lost-20526
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9020won+18546
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0320won+20528
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9219won+18508
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0620lost-20490
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.0320lost-20510
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0715won+16530
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZMOUZ2.6815lost-15514
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8915won+13529
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9015lost-15516
29.09.261w Team – Natus Vincere1w Team2.7515won+26531
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.0515lost-15506
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamYBN Team2.1315lost-15520
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team2.2315lost-15536
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamYBN Team2.0515won+16551
27.09.26avice Team – Cake Teamavice Team1.9515lost-15535
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming2.4616lost-16550
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice Teamavice Team1.9216lost-16566
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.0116won+16582
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.4315won+22566
25.09.26Solo Team – avice TeamSolo Team1.9616lost-16544
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.9516lost-16560
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereTeam Nemesis2.2116lost-16576
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9017lost-17592
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w Team1w Team1.9617lost-17609
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.9717lost-17626
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamgpK~ Team2.5418lost-18643
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTwo Move1.9918lost-18661
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.4718won+26679
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamYBN Team2.1018lost-18653
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamNS Team2.0118lost-18671
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumConventus Stellarum2.0619lost-19689
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingLGD Gaming1.9019lost-19708
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3518won+25727
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak Teamavice Team2.1819lost-19702
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriMOUZ2.0018won+19721
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w Team1w Team2.3719lost-19702
22.09.26Zero Tenacity – Team LynxZero Tenacity1.9919lost-19721
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.