Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1245u
ROI
-21.7%
win rate
38%
bets
128
drawdown
123.4%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-327u
period 2top-up-443u
period 1top-up-475u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -284 | -22.6% | 29.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 128 | 38% | -292 | -22.8% | 29.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -550 | -22.4% | 55.9% | Select |
| Martingale | 8 | 13% | -1000 | -98.1% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -1245 | -21.7% | 123.4% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -2067 | -20.4% | 197.4% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | PuckChamp | 2.89 | 35 | lost | -35 | -245 |
| 14.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Shadow Dance | The WarriorsQ | 1.94 | 37 | lost | -37 | -210 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 36 | won | +32 | -173 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 34 | won | +31 | -204 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.43 | 36 | lost | -36 | -235 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 38 | lost | -38 | -199 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 40 | lost | -40 | -161 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 42 | lost | -42 | -121 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 40 | won | +36 | -80 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 42 | lost | -42 | -116 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 40 | won | +36 | -74 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.91 | 43 | lost | -43 | -110 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 45 | lost | -45 | -67 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | CyberHero | 1.89 | 47 | lost | -47 | -22 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | LEGION | 1.92 | 45 | won | +41 | 25 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | MOUZ | 2.19 | 47 | lost | -47 | -17 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.20 | 45 | won | +54 | 31 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 47 | lost | -47 | -23 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.03 | 50 | lost | -50 | 24 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 52 | lost | -52 | 74 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | CyberHero | 2.23 | 55 | lost | -55 | 126 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 52 | won | +55 | 181 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 49 | won | +59 | 126 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 52 | lost | -52 | 68 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.90 | 50 | won | +45 | 119 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 47 | won | +49 | 75 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 45 | won | +42 | 26 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 48 | lost | -48 | -15 |
| 01.10.26 | MOUZ – OG | MOUZ | 2.03 | 50 | lost | -50 | 32 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 26 | won | +28 | 82 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.68 | 28 | lost | -28 | 54 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 27 | won | +24 | 82 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 28 | lost | -28 | 58 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 26 | won | +45 | 86 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.05 | 27 | lost | -27 | 41 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | YBN Team | 2.13 | 29 | lost | -29 | 68 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 2.23 | 30 | lost | -30 | 97 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | YBN Team | 2.05 | 29 | won | +30 | 127 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 30 | lost | -30 | 96 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 32 | lost | -32 | 127 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 33 | lost | -33 | 158 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.01 | 32 | won | +32 | 192 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 30 | won | +42 | 160 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 31 | lost | -31 | 117 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.95 | 33 | lost | -33 | 148 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 35 | lost | -35 | 181 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 36 | lost | -36 | 216 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 38 | lost | -38 | 252 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 40 | lost | -40 | 290 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 42 | lost | -42 | 331 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 45 | lost | -45 | 373 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.47 | 42 | won | +61 | 418 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 44 | lost | -44 | 357 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | NS Team | 2.01 | 46 | lost | -46 | 400 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Conventus Stellarum | 2.06 | 49 | lost | -49 | 446 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.90 | 51 | lost | -51 | 495 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 54 | lost | -54 | 546 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 50 | won | +68 | 600 |
| 22.09.26 | MOUZ – Hokori | MOUZ | 2.00 | 48 | won | +48 | 532 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 50 | lost | -50 | 484 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.