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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-598u
ROI
-24.7%
win rate
37%
bets
129
drawdown
60.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-156u
period 2top-up-220u
period 1top-up-222u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll12937%-310-24.8%31.7%Select
Flat (10 units)12937%-321-24.9%32.8%Select
2% of bankroll12937%-598-24.7%60.6%Select
Martingale813%-1000-98.1%100%Select
5% of bankroll12937%-1330-24.3%131.5%Select
10% of bankroll12937%-2154-23.2%205.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 129, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.2817lost-17402
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8918lost-18419
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceThe WarriorsQ1.9418lost-18436
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8918won+16454
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9017won+16439
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9518lost-18423
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9518lost-18441
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1118lost-18459
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1219lost-19477
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9118won+17496
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1419lost-19479
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8918won+16498
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9119lost-19482
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1319lost-19500
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8920lost-20520
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9219won+18539
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1920lost-20522
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2019won+23541
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0820lost-20518
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0320lost-20538
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8920lost-20558
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2321lost-21578
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0520won+21599
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1920won+24578
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9220lost-20554
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9020won+18574
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0320won+20556
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9219won+18536
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0620lost-20518
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMBETBOOM TEAM2.3920lost-20538
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0715won+16558
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZMOUZ2.6816lost-16542
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8915won+14557
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9016lost-16544
29.09.261w Team – Natus Vincere1w Team2.7515won+26559
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.0515lost-15533
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamYBN Team2.1316lost-16548
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team2.2316lost-16564
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamYBN Team2.0516won+17580
27.09.26avice Team – Cake Teamavice Team1.9516lost-16563
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming2.4616lost-16580
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice Teamavice Team1.9217lost-17596
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.0116won+17613
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.4316won+23596
25.09.26Solo Team – avice TeamSolo Team1.9616lost-16573
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.9517lost-17589
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereTeam Nemesis2.2117lost-17606
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9017lost-17623
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w Team1w Team1.9618lost-18640
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.9718lost-18658
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTwo Move1.9918lost-18676
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamgpK~ Team2.5419lost-19694
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.4718won+27713
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamYBN Team2.1019lost-19686
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamNS Team2.0119lost-19705
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumConventus Stellarum2.0619lost-19724
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingLGD Gaming1.9020lost-20743
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3519won+26763
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak Teamavice Team2.1820lost-20737
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriMOUZ2.0019won+19756
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.