Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-22671u
ROI
-51.3%
win rate
38%
bets
2542
drawdown
2256.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-788u
period 24top-up-846u
period 23top-up-922u
period 22top-up-979u
period 21top-up-929u
period 20top-up-973u
period 19top-up-918u
period 18top-up-981u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 76 | 42% | -1190 | -46.2% | 119% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -10178 | -52.1% | 1016.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2542 | 38% | -13311 | -52.4% | 1329.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -16024 | -51.9% | 1599.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -22671 | -51.3% | 2256.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1524 | 3% | -24223 | -92.7% | 2422.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -24532 | -50.7% | 2429.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 11 | lost | -11 | -21671 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 12 | lost | -12 | -21660 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 12 | lost | -12 | -21648 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.01 | 12 | won | +0 | -21636 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.03 | 12 | won | +0 | -21636 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 13 | lost | -13 | -21636 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -21623 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 14 | lost | -14 | -21610 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -21595 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -21580 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -21564 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -21547 |
| 14.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.02 | 18 | won | +0 | -21530 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – PARIVISION | Team Falcons | 1.80 | 19 | lost | -19 | -21530 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 5.80 | 20 | lost | -20 | -21512 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -21492 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -21471 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Level UP | 1.22 | 21 | won | +5 | -21450 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Rune Eaters | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | -21454 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | -21455 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | Rune Eaters | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | -21455 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Rune Eaters | 15.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -21455 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 1.25 | 22 | won | +6 | -21433 |
| 08.08.26 | Power Rangers – Team Syntax | Team Syntax | 12.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -21438 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.02 | 23 | won | +0 | -21415 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -21415 |
| 06.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Power Rangers | Ilbirs eSports | 6.60 | 26 | lost | -26 | -21391 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | Level UP | 2.25 | 24 | won | +30 | -21365 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -21395 |
| 05.08.26 | PlayTime – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -21369 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team – BETBOOM Team | 1w Team | 1.01 | 27 | won | +0 | -21342 |
| 04.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Falcons | Team Liquid | 13.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -21343 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -21314 |
| 04.08.26 | PlayTime – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 13.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -21284 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -21253 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.26 | 33 | won | +9 | -21220 |
| 03.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 34 | lost | -34 | -21228 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.30 | 34 | won | +10 | -21194 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.01 | 34 | won | +0 | -21204 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 36 | lost | -36 | -21204 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 38 | lost | -38 | -21169 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -21131 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.06 | 39 | won | +2 | -21091 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Falcons – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 42 | lost | -42 | -21094 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.06 | 41 | won | +2 | -21052 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.04 | 41 | won | +2 | -21055 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH – Zero Tenacity | GLYPH | 1.10 | 41 | won | +4 | -21056 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 41 | won | +8 | -21060 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -21069 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -21026 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 14.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -20981 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -20933 |
| 31.07.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 7 | won | +6 | -20883 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 7 | won | +1 | -20889 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -20891 |
| 31.07.26 | Enjoy Boys – GLYPH | Enjoy Boys | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -20883 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.05 | 8 | won | +0 | -20875 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -20875 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -20867 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -20858 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.