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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1321u
ROI
-26.7%
win rate
63%
bets
494
drawdown
132.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+3u
period 24top-up-50u
period 23top-up-61u
period 22top-up-99u
period 21top-up-50u
period 20top-up-18u
period 19top-up-52u
period 18profit withdrawn+12u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll49463%-1281-26.8%128.9%Select
Flat (10 units)49463%-1321-26.7%132.9%Selected
2% of bankroll49463%-2486-26.9%246.7%Select
Martingale49463%-3265-28.3%335.9%Select
5% of bankroll49463%-5689-27%541.9%Select
10% of bankroll49463%-9910-27.4%884.6%Select
Quarter Kelly1869%-10526-83.4%991%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-321
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0610won+1-321
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0310won+0-322
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0110won+0-322
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1510won+12-322
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-334
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-324
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-314
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0110won+0-314
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3510won+4-314
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0010lost-10-318
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0010lost-10-308
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0010lost-10-298
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-288
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6010lost-10-278
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9210won+9-268
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2510won+2-277
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0410won+0-279
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9010lost-10-280
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0210won+0-270
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-270
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-270
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.2010won+2-270
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-272
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w Team1w Team1.2010won+2-272
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineNigma Galaxy1.1210won+1-274
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamBy_Owl Team1.0410won+0-275
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2510lost-10-276
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-266
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0010lost-10-266
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDread Team1.3010won+3-256
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterMentality Monster1.0210won+0-259
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsGrind Back1.0110won+0-259
19.06.26summer bear – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0110won+0-259
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsPower Rangers1.0110won+0-259
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2010lost-10-259
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0010lost-10-249
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9010won+19-239
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamTeam Nemesis1.0110won+0-258
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityL1ga Team1.0110won+0-259
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2510lost-10-259
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubRamzes Club1.3210won+3-249
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-252
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXREKONIX1.0810won+1-242
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXREKONIX1.0210won+0-243
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0010lost-10-243
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0010lost-10-233
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6010lost-10-223
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-213
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.7010lost-10-213
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubRamzes Club1.1210won+1-203
27.05.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.2010won+2-204
27.05.26OG – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-206
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0010lost-10-206
26.05.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.1710won+2-196
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-198
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.3510lost-10-188
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamSolo Team1.0110won+0-178
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0010lost-10-178
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsAurora Gaming1.0310won+0-168
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.