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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-5747u
ROI
-27.5%
win rate
63%
bets
494
drawdown
580.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

5% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+10u
period 24top-up-228u
period 23top-up-276u
period 22top-up-402u
period 21top-up-235u
period 20top-up-89u
period 19top-up-236u
period 18profit withdrawn+46u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll49463%-1302-27.3%131.5%Select
Flat (10 units)49463%-1345-27.2%135.8%Select
2% of bankroll49463%-2522-27.3%254.7%Select
Martingale49463%-3288-28.5%341.8%Select
5% of bankroll49463%-5747-27.5%580.7%Selected
10% of bankroll49463%-9957-27.9%1007.1%Select
Quarter Kelly1858%-10555-85.1%1060.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0150won+1-4747
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0650won+3-4747
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0350won+2-4750
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0150won+1-4752
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1548won+55-4752
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2050lost-50-4807
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0041lost-41-4757
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0141won+0-4716
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0141won+0-4717
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3540won+14-4717
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0042lost-42-4731
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0044lost-44-4689
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0047lost-47-4645
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0049lost-49-4598
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6052lost-52-4549
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9249won+45-4498
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2549won+12-4543
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0449won+2-4555
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9051lost-51-4557
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0251won+1-4506
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0151won+1-4507
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0151won+1-4508
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.2051won+10-4508
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0150won+1-4518
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w Team1w Team1.2050won+10-4519
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineNigma Galaxy1.1236won+4-4529
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamBy_Owl Team1.0436won+1-4533
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2538lost-38-4535
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit1.0138won+0-4497
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0040lost-40-4497
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDread Team1.3039won+12-4457
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterMentality Monster1.0239won+1-4469
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsGrind Back1.0139won+0-4470
19.06.26summer bear – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0139won+0-4470
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsPower Rangers1.0139won+0-4471
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2041lost-41-4471
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0043lost-43-4430
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9040won+75-4387
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamTeam Nemesis1.0140won+0-4462
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityL1ga Team1.0140won+0-4462
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2542lost-42-4463
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubRamzes Club1.3241won+13-4421
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0043lost-43-4434
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXREKONIX1.0843won+3-4391
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXREKONIX1.0243won+1-4394
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0045lost-45-4395
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0048lost-48-4350
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6050lost-50-4303
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGTeam Spirit1.0130won+0-4253
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.7031lost-31-4253
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubRamzes Club1.1231won+4-4221
27.05.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.2031won+6-4225
27.05.26OG – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0131won+0-4231
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0033lost-33-4232
26.05.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.1732won+5-4199
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0034lost-34-4205
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.3536lost-36-4171
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamSolo Team1.0136won+0-4135
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0038lost-38-4135
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsAurora Gaming1.0338won+1-4097
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.