Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-3265u
ROI
-28.3%
win rate
63%
bets
494
drawdown
335.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+27u
period 24top-up-201u
period 23top-up-106u
period 22top-up-129u
period 21top-up-67u
period 20top-up-200u
period 19top-up-91u
period 18profit withdrawn+12u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -1281 | -26.8% | 128.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 63% | -1321 | -26.7% | 132.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -2486 | -26.9% | 246.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 494 | 63% | -3265 | -28.3% | 335.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -5689 | -27% | 541.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -9910 | -27.4% | 884.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 186 | 9% | -10526 | -83.4% | 991% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2265 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 10 | won | +1 | -2265 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | -2266 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2266 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 40 | won | +46 | -2266 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 20 | lost | -20 | -2312 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2292 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2282 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2282 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 320 | won | +112 | -2282 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 160 | lost | -160 | -2394 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | -2234 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -2154 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -2114 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2094 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | -2084 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Zero Tenacity | 1.25 | 10 | won | +2 | -2093 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.04 | 20 | won | +1 | -2096 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2097 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | -2087 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2087 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2087 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.20 | 10 | won | +2 | -2087 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2089 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.20 | 10 | won | +2 | -2089 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Nigma Galaxy | 1.12 | 10 | won | +1 | -2091 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | By_Owl Team | 1.04 | 20 | won | +1 | -2092 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 2.25 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2093 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -2083 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2083 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | Dread Team | 1.30 | 10 | won | +3 | -2073 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | Mentality Monster | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | -2076 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Grind Back | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2077 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2077 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | -2077 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Flame Esports | 4.20 | 20 | lost | -20 | -2077 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2057 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | Phenomenon | 2.90 | 10 | won | +19 | -2047 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Team Nemesis | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -2066 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | L1ga Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -2066 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 2.25 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2066 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.32 | 20 | won | +6 | -2056 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2063 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.08 | 10 | won | +1 | -2053 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.02 | 80 | won | +2 | -2054 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | L1ga Team | 13.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -2055 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -2015 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -1995 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -1985 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 2.70 | 10 | lost | -10 | -1985 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | Ramzes Club | 1.12 | 10 | won | +1 | -1975 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.20 | 10 | won | +2 | -1977 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -1979 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -1979 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | Team Falcons | 1.17 | 40 | won | +7 | -1969 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1976 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | GLYPH | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | -1956 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Solo Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -1946 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Miposhka Team | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -1946 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Aurora Gaming | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | -1936 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.