Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-5747u
ROI
-27.5%
win rate
63%
bets
494
drawdown
580.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+10u
period 24top-up-228u
period 23top-up-276u
period 22top-up-402u
period 21top-up-235u
period 20top-up-89u
period 19top-up-236u
period 18profit withdrawn+46u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -1302 | -27.3% | 131.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 63% | -1345 | -27.2% | 135.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -2522 | -27.3% | 254.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 494 | 63% | -3288 | -28.5% | 341.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -5747 | -27.5% | 580.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -9957 | -27.9% | 1007.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 185 | 8% | -10555 | -85.1% | 1060.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | -4747 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 50 | won | +3 | -4747 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 50 | won | +2 | -4750 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | -4752 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 48 | won | +55 | -4752 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 50 | lost | -50 | -4807 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -4757 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 41 | won | +0 | -4716 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 41 | won | +0 | -4717 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 40 | won | +14 | -4717 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 42 | lost | -42 | -4731 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 44 | lost | -44 | -4689 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 47 | lost | -47 | -4645 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 49 | lost | -49 | -4598 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 52 | lost | -52 | -4549 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 1.92 | 49 | won | +45 | -4498 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Zero Tenacity | 1.25 | 49 | won | +12 | -4543 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.04 | 49 | won | +2 | -4555 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 51 | lost | -51 | -4557 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.02 | 51 | won | +1 | -4506 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -4507 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -4508 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.20 | 51 | won | +10 | -4508 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | -4518 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.20 | 50 | won | +10 | -4519 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Nigma Galaxy | 1.12 | 36 | won | +4 | -4529 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | By_Owl Team | 1.04 | 36 | won | +1 | -4533 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 2.25 | 38 | lost | -38 | -4535 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 38 | won | +0 | -4497 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -4497 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | Dread Team | 1.30 | 39 | won | +12 | -4457 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | Mentality Monster | 1.02 | 39 | won | +1 | -4469 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Grind Back | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -4470 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -4470 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -4471 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Flame Esports | 4.20 | 41 | lost | -41 | -4471 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -4430 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | Phenomenon | 2.90 | 40 | won | +75 | -4387 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Team Nemesis | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | -4462 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | L1ga Team | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | -4462 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 2.25 | 42 | lost | -42 | -4463 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.32 | 41 | won | +13 | -4421 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -4434 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.08 | 43 | won | +3 | -4391 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.02 | 43 | won | +1 | -4394 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | L1ga Team | 13.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -4395 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -4350 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 6.60 | 50 | lost | -50 | -4303 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 30 | won | +0 | -4253 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 2.70 | 31 | lost | -31 | -4253 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | Ramzes Club | 1.12 | 31 | won | +4 | -4221 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.20 | 31 | won | +6 | -4225 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 31 | won | +0 | -4231 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 15.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -4232 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | Team Falcons | 1.17 | 32 | won | +5 | -4199 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 34 | lost | -34 | -4205 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | GLYPH | 2.35 | 36 | lost | -36 | -4171 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Solo Team | 1.01 | 36 | won | +0 | -4135 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Miposhka Team | 10.00 | 38 | lost | -38 | -4135 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Aurora Gaming | 1.03 | 38 | won | +1 | -4097 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.