Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+895u
ROI
+22.1%
win rate
71%
bets
68
drawdown
17.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+52u
period 2profit withdrawn+427u
period 1profit withdrawn+416u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +1936 | +20.2% | 26.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +895 | +22.1% | 17.1% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +339 | +23.2% | 8.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 68 | 71% | +286 | +27.8% | 5.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 68 | 71% | +166 | +23.6% | 4.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 68 | 71% | +163 | +23.9% | 4.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stariy_bog Team | 1.88 | 55 | lost | -55 | 1895 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 54 | won | +29 | 1950 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 52 | won | +43 | 1921 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 50 | won | +41 | 1878 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.70 | 48 | won | +34 | 1837 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 46 | won | +33 | 1803 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 49 | lost | -49 | 1771 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Team Spirit | 1.68 | 47 | won | +32 | 1820 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 46 | won | +32 | 1787 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 44 | won | +32 | 1756 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 46 | lost | -46 | 1724 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 49 | lost | -49 | 1770 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 1.86 | 47 | won | +40 | 1819 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 49 | lost | -49 | 1779 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 52 | lost | -52 | 1828 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Aurora Gaming | 1.74 | 50 | won | +37 | 1880 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 75 | lost | -75 | 1843 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.88 | 79 | lost | -79 | 1918 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 83 | lost | -83 | 1997 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 80 | won | +66 | 2080 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 78 | won | +41 | 2014 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 75 | won | +64 | 1973 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.54 | 79 | lost | -79 | 1909 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.82 | 75 | won | +62 | 1988 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 73 | won | +47 | 1926 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.88 | 70 | won | +62 | 1879 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 67 | won | +55 | 1817 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 65 | won | +52 | 1762 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.79 | 62 | won | +49 | 1710 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 61 | won | +30 | 1660 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 1.72 | 59 | won | +42 | 1630 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 57 | won | +38 | 1588 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 60 | lost | -60 | 1551 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | Natus Vincere | 1.57 | 58 | won | +33 | 1610 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Nemesis – GamerLegion | Team Nemesis | 1.74 | 61 | lost | -61 | 1577 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 64 | lost | -64 | 1639 |
| 21.09.26 | Solo Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.71 | 62 | won | +44 | 1703 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | Team Nemesis | 1.64 | 60 | won | +39 | 1659 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Kalmychata | 1.55 | 59 | won | +32 | 1620 |
| 21.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.87 | 62 | lost | -62 | 1588 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 60 | won | +39 | 1650 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 57 | won | +51 | 1611 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 60 | lost | -60 | 1560 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 63 | lost | -63 | 1620 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | Two Move | 1.89 | 61 | won | +54 | 1684 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.79 | 58 | won | +46 | 1630 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | uralan | 1.82 | 61 | lost | -61 | 1584 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.62 | 60 | won | +37 | 1645 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 57 | won | +50 | 1608 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Stariy_Bog Club | 1.77 | 55 | won | +42 | 1558 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 53 | won | +44 | 1516 |
| 10.09.26 | Recrent Team – Daxak Team | Recrent Team | 1.89 | 56 | lost | -56 | 1473 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Klim Sani4 | 1.74 | 54 | won | +40 | 1528 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | Natus Vincere | 1.82 | 51 | won | +42 | 1489 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 49 | won | +41 | 1446 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 52 | lost | -52 | 1406 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Zero Tenacity | 1.83 | 50 | won | +41 | 1458 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 75 | lost | -75 | 1416 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 72 | won | +55 | 1491 |
| 29.08.26 | MOUZ – Yellow Submarine | MOUZ | 1.89 | 69 | won | +61 | 1436 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.